"Well, have you been following the weather news?"
"To a certain extent, sir. It's a big country. You've obviously got something in mind. What's up?", he asked.
Okay, he's right. It is a big country, and this thing hadn't even made it out of the Caribbean. "There's a brand new tropical storm and it's aimed right at Florida. We don't need another Hurricane Andrew.", I told him, reminding him of the hurricane that devastated southern Florida years before.
"No, sir, that would be bad. I will look into it with my forecasting staff."
"That's all I can ask for now, Michael. Hey, maybe you can use this as a live fire training exercise."
"I'll look into that, sir. Thank you, Mister President."
We hung up. I could expect a response from him by the end of the day. Presidents don't just call up to say 'Hello!' If I called, I would expect a positive response.
I heard from Brown late on the 23rd that, as per my suggestion, they were going to use this as a large scale training exercise. I told him I thought that was a good idea, and if he needed me to give any appropriate orders, to simply let me know. I kept an eye on things over the next few days. On the 24th it kept strengthening, and looked like it would clip southern Florida and head into the Gulf. It did that on the 25th. The FEMA preparations for Florida went fine, and nobody died, but there was some property damage. Everybody gave a sigh of relief as it drifted into the Gulf and began to weaken back into a tropical storm. I went along with them, but I knew better. I simply told Michael Brown to keep the exercise running, since a big storm like that could still cause a lot of coastal flooding. I also brought it up at my morning staff meeting.
On Friday the 26th, everybody took a deep breath and let out a loud, 'Oh shit!' That sigh of relief had been premature! All day long Katrina increased in strength, reverting back to a hurricane and heading towards the Gulf Coast. Predictions were that Louisiana was going to get slammed. The National Hurricane Center was officially predicting a hurricane level impact on the Louisiana coastline. In response, I ordered a conference call for that afternoon with everybody I could grab. I knew what was coming, and I knew that the locals were figuring this to be just another big storm that the Big Easy could ride out, with hurricane parties and a lot of bourbon and rum.
The conference call was a big one, with the Governors of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, the Mayors of New Orleans and Mobile, the head of the Army Corps of Engineers, the boss of the National Hurricane Center, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In my office, on speakerphone, I had John McCain, Frank Stouffer, Will Brucis, and Michael Brown of FEMA. You might not like the government, but by God we had a hell of a communications system! We started out with a briefing by Max Mayfield, the head of the Hurricane Center, on what the storm was doing and what we could expect. It wasn't good. The storm was strengthening, moving back up to hurricane strength, and getting stronger by the minute. At current trends it would go from a Category One up to Category Three by the 27th, and probably still be growing when it made landfall. It was aimed directly at New Orleans.
According to the head of the Army Corps of Engineers, Lieutenant General Carl Strock the levees were perfectly safe up through a Category 3 hurricane, but he made no assurances beyond that. New Orleans would be safe.
"You sound pretty positive, General. What happens if one of the levees fails?", I asked.
"In a case like that, you might expect to see some isolated problems, but unless the storm gets to a Category 4 or 5, we'll be fine.", I was told.
"General, I am not going to tell you your business, but I would make sure that you plan on some immediate and major repairs if something goes wrong.", I warned him.
"We already have taken that into consideration, sir."
That was not what I wanted to hear. "General, I am not reassured. From what Doctor Mayfield is telling us, Category Three might be on the low side of estimates. Anything higher than that is going to scrape New Orleans down to the original mud flats. Mister Brown, your agency has done some assessments. Is that a correct statement?"
Mike Brown nodded, though nobody on the call could see that, and he said, "Yes, sir. Everything we have seen says that there will be widespread destruction throughout southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, and even into eastern Texas. If the levees fail in New Orleans, most of the city will be underwater."
Governor Blanco of Louisiana immediately requested a state of emergency be declared, seconded by Haley Barbour of Mississippi. I went along with that, and promised any assistance we could offer. That was when it became tricky. Ray Nagin, the Mayor of New Orleans refused to issue a mandatory evacuation warning, and only wanted a voluntary evacuation. He wanted, instead, to set up temporary rescue centers on higher ground, just in case, and stock them with some food and water, if necessary.
"Mayor Nagin, let me make sure I understand you. Everybody else wants to shut down the area and get everybody out, and you don't? Do I have that correct?", I asked.
"Mister President, that is hardly my position..." He was off and running. The bottom line was that if he ordered an evacuation, he would be causing chaos among the residents who were unable to leave, and there would be widespread liability for shutting down the city. If you read between the lines, he was worried about getting sued in case the storm wimped out or missed the city! I think he knew just how unprepared his city was for a disaster, so he was simply going to hope it didn't happen. If it did, hey, not his fault!
I listened to him futz around for a bit and looked over at John McCain, who seemed as disturbed as I was. Finally I had enough, and simply cut him off. "Okay, I've heard what I need to hear. Let's get to the heart of the matter. According to the Stafford Act, I have the authority to declare a state of emergency as needed. It's needed. Governor Blanco, Governor Barbour, Governor Riley, let's just draw a horizontal line through the middle of your states. All the counties or parishes below that line are emergency areas. If you haven't already done so, call out your National Guard, all of them, every last one. Issue immediate and mandatory evacuation orders for anybody living on any body of water. I don't care if it's a duck pond; have them move inland and away from it. Mayor Dow, Mayor Nagin, issue the evacuation orders."
"Mister President, you don't have that authority.", replied Nagin.
"Mayor Nagin, we've never met, so you don't know me. I'm going to make this real simple. When push comes to shove, you don't tell me what I can do, I tell you. If it comes down to it, I will declare martial law, throw your ass in the stockade, and drop the 82nd Airborne on your city to take control. Are we clear on that, or do I have to give you a demonstration?", I replied.
Nagin shut up, and a moment later the White House switchboard came over the line and reported his connection was broken. I stared at the others for a second. I was sure he would report that it was a communications failure, but the reality was that the bastard had hung up on the President of the United States! Unbelievable!
There was a stunned silence for a moment, and then I heard the voice of Hailey Barbour, the Governor of Mississippi, come over the line. "Uh, Mister President, were you serious about martial law?"
I grinned at the rest of the people in my office, most of whom also looked a little stunned. "Hailey, I really don't want things to get that far, but I think this storm is going to get bigger, not smaller. I think it would behoove everybody involved to go above and beyond in taking precautions. Governor Blanco, New Orleans is your city. I would suggest that you talk to Mayor Nagin and explain things to him in a clear and certain manner. If he fights me on this, he will lose. I am expecting mandatory evacuation orders for the storm zone in time for the evening news. Is that understood, madam?"