The standard plan would be to explore all through 2006 before making an official announcement sometime around the end of 2006 or the beginning of 2007. After that, they would be officially campaigning. The primaries would start in January of 2008, run for about three or four months, and be tied up long before the conventions.
Right now, everybody was running around New Hampshire and Iowa, trying to line up precinct captains and local supporters, and giving speeches and going door to door. No way would I ever have gone through with that! Some of these guys were practically living in these states. The theory was that they only had a little money, so they would concentrate in the early primary states. If they could do well, they could use that to force open donor's wallets and get enough money to bombard the next few states, and so forth. These were all long shot candidates, but it was a definite possibility, which was why they did it.
On the Democratic side, the odds-on favorite was Hillary Clinton, who had separated herself politically from her worthless philandering husband, and was now the junior senator from New York. After that, it was just a pack of wannabes, led by John Edwards, the V.P. nominee from last time, the guy who had ridden my ass about my bastard son. The dark horse candidate (and what a pun that was!) was Barack Obama, who had given such an electrifying speech at their last convention, and was the junior senator from Illinois. There was a very dangerous dynamic going on. Women loved Hillary, and most women voted Democratic. Blacks loved Obama, the first really serious black candidate this country had ever seen who could actually win white votes. Either one might win their nomination and face off against John McCain.
When this happened on my first trip, the country had been on a seven year binge of overspending and a real estate bubble, all of which broke the economy in the late summer of 2008. Until that point, McCain was winning. After that, he lost. Additionally, he had the albatross of a very unpopular President around his neck. I was nowhere near as unpopular as George would have been by now. McCain had an excellent chance at beating either Clinton or Obama, unless the wheels came off by 2008. It was my job to see that didn't happen.
It didn't always work out so easily. In early 2006, Harry Reid decided to poke a finger in my eye, because he was getting heat from Governor Blanco in Louisiana. He decided to put a hold on any further appointments I wanted to make. He had been making himself a nuisance for the last year, since the Democrats took power in the Senate, and was starting to feel like he was in charge. My appointments last year had taken longer to confirm, with a lot of hullaballoo at times, and several Federal judgeships were still sitting vacant. Now he informed us that nothing would get approved until hearings were held on the Federal response to Hurricane Katrina. He wanted Michael Brown's head on a platter, as a sop to Blanco.
I grimaced and had Brown over to the White House when I heard about this. I told him that I had no intention of firing him, and that his performance during the hurricanes had been good. My question was what were his intentions for staying at FEMA?
"I was planning to leave at the end of the year, sir, if that is all right. I have been getting some interesting offers from a few outfits over on K Street, if you know what I mean."
I nodded. "I am sure you have had some offers. I imagine you'll also be working on some political fund raising for a few people."
He smiled and nodded. "The Vice President has made a few comments along that line."
"That's only because John McCain is a smart guy, and is going to win this thing! Okay, so, you are going to leave by the end of 2006, but not right away. That works for me, and I'll support you, but don't be surprised if Harry Reid makes an ass of himself along the way. He is definitely going to be holding hearings on Katrina, and you and your agency are going to be giving testimony. I wouldn't be able to stop that even if I tried, and it would be hopeless for me to fight it."
"What are you going to do about the hold on appointments?", Brown asked.
"I am not sure, at least not yet.", I answered, with another grimace. "Listen, about you and FEMA, you're going to be leaving there. Now, don't get me wrong, but you're political, a money man and a fixer. That's why George put both you and Allbaugh over there. I'm not saying you both didn't do good jobs, but I want the next guy to be a pro, you understand."
"I follow you, Mister President. You're right, that's how we ended up there.", he agreed.
"So, like I said, you both did well, but I'm going to want one of your long time people taking over when you leave. Figure out a name or two for me. Neither of us wants to see an amateur in that job. If the climate scientists are right, the problems are going to increase, not decrease!"
"Crap!", he said lowly. He nodded in understanding and I let him go at that. I smiled to myself, though. Mike Brown would be leaving his job at some point, but not in disgrace. Assuming he did a decent job as lobbyist and fundraiser over the next couple of years, he was a prime candidate for a Cabinet post in a McCain administration. Commerce or Transportation would be naturals for him.
I thought about it, and then called and asked Frank Keating to come over.
John Ashcroft had resigned as Attorney General in February of 2005, after suffering through a very severe bout of pancreatitis in the spring of 2004. He was much more conservative than I was, and a whole lot more religious, but the man had integrity, and he fiercely protected the Constitution. During the remainder of 2004 he and I spoke frequently, and he told me he would resign right after the Inauguration. He liked my idea of Frank Keating as a replacement, and between the two of us we got Frank on board. Frank had been out of office since the start of 2003, and had taken a couple of positions on boards of various companies. He accepted my offer and we managed to get him confirmed as the new Attorney General in 2005.
That's not to say it was easy. There was a lot of rancor coming out of the Senate at this, and they delayed his confirmation for over a month. It wasn't that Keating was all that controversial a fellow, or that he hadn't been a decent Governor of Oklahoma. It was that it was a way for Harry Reid to be difficult with me without spending a lot of his influence doing so. It cost me more to confirm him than it cost Harry to slow things down. Harry also slowed down a number of Federal judgeships as well, again, at very little personal cost. Worst of all, we now had two empty seats on the Supreme Court. Sandra Day O'Connor had stepped down and William Rehnquist had died, and the Senate Judiciary Committee had my nominees (one male, one female, both moderates) on hold.
By 2006 I was getting extra pissed at this, so I simply decided to say 'Screw you!' to the Senate. On Monday, February 20, the Senate recessed for a week. On Thursday morning, February 23, I went down to the Press Room during the morning Daily Press Briefing, and made a statement. In part, it read:
"The nation's business does not end when the Senate is in recess. Crime still occurs when the Senate is in recess. The police still catch criminals when the Senate is in recess. The courts still function when the Senate is in recess. If the Senate decides to hold up all Federal appointments to the Justice Department, that is their right to do so. I have put forth names of qualified men and women to fill vacant positions throughout the Justice Department, and the Senate has put these names on hold, in some cases for many months. We can no longer wait and hope that crime will diminish during this period. Later this afternoon I intend to swear in, as recess appointments, the following people..."