Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey basically told Hussein where to head in. The Turks had a reputation for being tough fighters, and they had decent weaponry through NATO and modern purchases. Their national economy was also quite a bit stronger than Iraq's. Meanwhile, the Kurds also told Hussein to go pound salt. The no-fly zone was being rigorously enforced, and I had zero interest in loosening it.
Reconnaissance overflights, satellite intelligence, and signal intercepts all began raising the possibility that Hussein might be contemplating something in terms of ground action, but it wasn't clear yet what was happening. The National Security Council was informed by Richard Clarke in mid-February that the Republican Guard was moving troops and mechanized units into the no-fly zone and towards the Kurdish boundary areas. A major concentration was in the vicinity south of Kirkuk, one of the areas Hussein had 'Arabized' by moving in lots of Sunnis to work in the oil fields and then kicked out a lot of the Kurds.
Part of the brief by Richard was the past history of Hussein against the Kurds. Put bluntly, the man was a genocidal maniac. Depending on time frame and specifics, he had killed off anywhere from 50,000 to 250,000 Kurds over the years, and had used chemical weapons on more than one occasion. Now it looked like he was gearing up to go at them again. If we let him, the result would be predictable. Kurds would stream across the borders into Turkey, Syria, and Iran, potentially destabilizing all three countries, something that would only benefit Hussein. As it was, under stable conditions they had actually been moving into Iraq. Turkey had found one of the best benefits to cooperation with the Kurds over a pipeline; it calmed down the PKK, the Kurdish Worker's Party militia in the eastern provinces, who tended towards guerilla attacks on the Turks.
The best current intelligence was that Hussein was either preparing for an attack on Kurdistan, or was simply trying to provoke us into doing something stupid and then playing the martyr for the Arab world. "That's the best you have, Richard? That he's either going to attack or he's not going to attack?", I asked sarcastically.
"Mister President, that's the best we can say right now. The preparations you make are the same. He might not even know at the moment. He might just want to scare people and make up his mind later.", Richard added.
He wasn't backing down, or trying to give me an answer I wanted. I could live with that. I looked around the room. I shrugged and nodded. "Let's look at this as two parts. What do we do now to try and deter the bastard, and what do we do next if he attacks anyway?" There was a murmur of agreement at that. I looked back at Clarke. "When would their preparations be ready? If they attack into Kurdistan, what would be the timetable and what would be their objectives?"
We were meeting in the Situation Room, and Richard put one of the analysts on the spot. A Navy Commander flashed a map of the border region up on a screen and overlaid it with some symbols. "Current projections have them still maneuvering assault and support units towards the border. It's still February, and Kurdistan is very cold right now, but will warm shortly, in another month or two. By summer it will be blistering hot. The campaign season will begin by the end of March, maybe earlier if the weather improves, and run through the end of November. At the current pace, if they want to attack in March, they will be on schedule for that."
She flashed another map up on the screen. "The main focus of their assault units is currently in Tikrit, a Sunni stronghold south of Kirkuk. From there they can quickly push forward to the border, with a first leap to the border, and then a second into Kurdistan itself. Depending on their focus, we are either looking at an assault east of Kirkuk, one centered between Erbil and Kirkuk, or possibly both, in an attempt to isolate and surround Kirkuk. After subduing Kirkuk, they would be positioned to move on Erbil, and then Mosul. It all depends on the level of resources they have to commit."
"And that level currently is?", I pressed.
"Unsure, sir. Certainly enough to capture Kirkuk and thoroughly trash it. Moving on to Erbil would probably require some consolidation and major resupply.", she replied.
I grunted a response and looked around. "So, what do we do about this? Do we back down, or do we back up the Kurds? Assuming the Iraqis actually do something, I mean."
"We have to back the Kurds! We can't cave to Hussein.", answered John McCain.
"It's as simple as that? We go to war? Nothing less?"
"Yes, sir. It's as simple as that. We are backing these people now, and we have troops on the line training them. If there is an attack, we are going to lose troops.", he replied.
"So, do we pull the troops? Try and deescalate things?", I pushed back.
"It won't work, Mister President.", responded Condi Rice, the Secretary of State. "Pulling back will be taken as a sign of weakness, not of trying to calm things down. It will be seen as weakness by Hussein, as well as by the Kurds and by Erdogan."
I grunted at that. "Turkey's a member of NATO. Any chance we can get NATO in on this?"
"Marginal. They are only obligated if a fellow member of NATO is attacked. If Hussein goes after Turkey, maybe then.", she said.
"If we do go in, we will need Turkish assets. At the minimum, we will need to use Incirlik to fly combat patrols out of. Will they go along with that?", I asked.
Condi looked over at Tom Ridge, the Secretary of Defense. He nodded back to her. She turned back to me and said, "Everything I am hearing is they are prepared to cooperate. They might not send in troops, but they will allow overflights and cross border support. Erdogan is very interested in calming the Kurds down in the eastern part of the country."
"Is there any chance that we can get Hussein to back down on this? Does he understand that he is looking at Gulf War Two with this?", I asked, to no one in particular.
"I don't think it makes a difference, Mister President." I turned to face the speaker, Eric Shinseki, the National Security Adviser. After the Able Danger incident, I had brought him on board officially as Deputy National Security Adviser under Condoleeza Rice. Now that she was the Secretary of State, he had moved up to his old boss' job. "Iraq's foreign policy is whatever wacky idea Saddam Hussein wakes up with. The man is a textbook psychopath, and I am not being facetious. The only thing he cares about is staying in power. If he kills off every last person in the country but himself, that is just fine as far as he is concerned. Current estimates are that Hussein is facing internal pressure related to their collapsing economy, and needs an external threat to distract the public. This fills the bill. The average Iraqi doesn't like the Kurds. Hussein's been spending the last fifteen years rebuilding his army. He figures it's about time he used it."
"Shit!", I muttered. Unfortunately, it made sense. "Does anybody here disagree with Eric? Is there any chance we are going to be able to smart our way out of this?"
There were a lot of silent faces looking back at me. The Vice President said, "Carl, you know what we have to do."
"Doesn't mean I have to like it, John." He snorted and gave me a half smile. He was right, too. I knew what needed to be done. I shrugged and said, "Okay, then let's do it."
I looked around the table. "We need to try to shut this down. If we can't, we need to prepare. Condi, you and Tom get to play diplomat. I want you on Air Force One tomorrow, first stop Ankara. I want you to discuss this whole situation with Erdogan. If he can pressure Hussein to back down, fine, but if we have to go in, get him on board. After that, see everybody else you need to. Tom, you need to do double duty. You and the Joint Chiefs need to start getting assets figured out. I don't want to send in troops now, but we are going to need some options. Get me those options." I turned next to Eric. "Eric, I want you running point with NATO. Start trying to drum up some support, characterize it as supporting Turkey, a fellow NATO member. The Brits will probably assist, but see what you can do with the others, too."