I could hear him inhale sharply at that. Israel is a small country, roughly the size of New Jersey, but with a bit smaller population. Unfortunately for them, everybody in the Middle East hated them and wanted them exterminated, and everybody had some sort of weaponry that could reach them. Only the fact that they had an overwhelming conventional weaponry superiority, plus nuclear weapons, kept their enemies at bay. When Hussein fired his Scud missiles at them in 1991, the intention was to draw them into the fray, and thus break up the Coalition. If he fired chemical rockets at the Israelis, there was a very good chance that Baghdad would disappear in a nuclear fireball.
After a second, he responded, "That is a most serious claim, Mister President. Are you sure on this?"
"We already have battlefield reports, sir. I am sure that with your extensive intelligence sources, you will be able to verify this in very short order."
"If this is true, Mister President, it is a most grave and serious matter.", he said slowly.
In diplo-speak, the phrasing used by diplomats, the word 'grave' is used only in the most dangerous and serious of circumstances. If one nation tells another that there will be grave repercussions to an action, it means there will be a war.
"That is why I am calling you. My nation realizes that yours is uncomfortably close to Iraq, and that there may be an attempt to draw yours into this affair. It is our sincerest hope that you refrain from any such response.", I told him.
"What is your current intention, sir?"
"We will be beginning a military response shortly, certainly by the end of the day. We intend to bring the full weight of our military to bear to defend an ally, just as we would do with any other ally in the area." 'Just like we would do with you' was left unsaid.
"And if Hussein were to repeat his past history by launching missiles at Israel.", he pushed.
"While we certainly would understand Israel's desire to respond, I have to be honest and say that it might not be helpful. On previous occasions you have held off on retaliation, and that worked best for everybody."
"That will be very dependent on Saddam Hussein's actions, and the type of attack he makes, if he makes one at all. Now I will be honest, Mister President. If chemical weapons are unleashed on my nation, we will be making a response, and it will be overwhelming and appropriate."
I sighed mentally. "I appreciate your candor, sir. Let us hope that this does not occur. I am sure I will be speaking to you frequently in the near future. I am sorry I have not been able to visit and meet you prior to this. National Security Adviser Shinseki is in your country now, and I wish that he stay there as my personal representative, along with our Ambassador. Is this satisfactory?", I asked.
"Of course."
We finished with some very brief pleasantries, and hung up. I knew that Olmert was going to get the Israel security apparatus in high gear in a matter of seconds. With any luck, I would be able to talk to Shinseki at some point.
By now we had also gathered in Paul O'Neill, my soon-to-be-retiring Treasury Secretary, and Tom Ridge, the Defense Secretary. General Pace was in Europe, at a NATO conference, and was on the speakerphone, as was Eric Shinseki. Richard Clarke was one of the last to arrive. I looked around the room. "Has everybody here got the gist of what has happened? Eric, have you had a chance to talk to the Prime Minister yet?"
"He's on my list right after we hang up. The Israelis are not going to be amused.", came from the speakerphone.
"When I talked to him, he basically implied that if the Iraqis lob chemical weapons at them, they will nuke Iraq to cinders.", I responded. Around me I heard a few quiet gasps, but not many. This was not an unexpected response.
"That would be in line with their public statements, sir. I think it would be quite likely.", he answered.
"Eric, try to keep them calm. If they do that, this thing gets out of hand quickly."
"Understood, sir." I heard some fumbling around, and he continued, "Mister President, I just received a request to meet with the Prime Minister."
"Okay, Eric. You go see him, and then call me back. Thanks." There was a click and that connection broke, followed by a comment from the switchboard the line was disconnected.
I looked at the others, now seated around the table. "Colonel, think you can do this in ten minutes?"
He nodded affirmatively. "Yes sir!" With that he threw the map of northern Iraq up on the screen, focusing in on Kirkuk and the border between the Arabs and the Kurds. It was neither a straight line, nor a defined line, but more a fuzzy area where both types might live side by side, harmoniously or not. For the next ten minutes he showed where the Kurdish Peshmerga had units, where the American adviser groups were, and where the Iraqi Republican Guard was attacking. It looked a lot like a pincer movement designed to surround and isolate Kirkuk, and kill any civilians or soldiers in the pocket. He also threw up onto the map locations where there were known and suspected chemical attacks.
You don't normally use chemicals on areas you plan to move through. For trained and prepared troops, chemical warfare is quite survivable, but it is very unpleasant. The pace of combat slows to a crawl, because everybody is moving around in chemical resistant suits and gas masks, and everything needs constant decontamination with lots of water and other chemicals. Most of the time you use chemicals as an area denial weapon, to keep the other side from moving through the area. It is also very effective if you plan a genocidal extinction of your enemy. Both uses seemed to be at work here. If the Iraqis managed to surround Kirkuk, they could move in and kill the Kurds at their leisure. Casualties would be massive and one-sided. From there, they could move forward, deeper into Kurdistan, probably towards Erbil, and repeat the process.
I looked around the table. Every eye was on me. "Does anybody here have any reason that we should not be making a response to this? Before I give an order, tell me right now if I am going to screw this up completely. I know we have discussed this, but chemical weapons will throw a real kink into this. If they hit Israel with them, Iraq will go up in a mushroom cloud, and we get into a real disaster then!"
I looked around the table. John McCain simply said, "Go!" Across from him, the youngest guy in the room, my Chief of Staff Frank Stouffer, simply nodded and gave me a thumbs-up. Richard Clarke also nodded and gave an approval, as did Tom Ridge and Paul O'Neill.
Condi Rice interjected, "Before we do this, sir, we need to get Turkey on board. I know we have already discussed this with them, and they have told us they will go along, but we will need to formally make the request and tell them about the chemical weapons."
I shrugged. "Okay, good point. Here's what we'll do. Condi, you get in touch with Erdogan and give him the latest. Tell him we are going to attack from the south regardless, but we really need to go in from the north. Promise him your first born male child if you have to, but get him on board. The same will go with Eric and the Israelis, to keep them from jumping in. Call them, too, and get the Ambassador in the loop. General, I am going to go upstairs and get dressed and get something to eat. By the time I am done, I will have some answers and will travel to the Pentagon. Make some phone calls and tell everybody to get ready. Also, call an emergency meeting of NATO, or whatever you can manage over there, and inform them. I would dearly love NATO support. Condi, the same goes for the U.N. I hereby am ordering the 82nd into action. Tell the Navy and the Air Force to prepare for an immediate 'Execute' order. Frank, get the Congressional and Senate leadership to my office this afternoon. Also, get Will to set up a national broadcast tonight. I have to tell the country I just put us at war, and tell Matt and Marc to see me about a speech. John, I want you out of Washington for the moment, just in case these idiots want to try something here. I want you safe."