1 - Kick the Republican Guard south with their tails between their legs, and leave it at that. Don't invade Iraq. We said we were doing this to defend the Kurds. Some of the Coalition members would balk at offensive action.
2 - Invade Iraq to get Saddam Hussein. Basically, go in and conquer the place and kill off Hussein, and then leave.
3 - Invade Iraq to force regime change. Take the place over and install democracy.
There were some significant issues with each choice. Option One left Hussein in charge, and declaring victory to the Arab masses. The odds were that he would spend the next ten or twenty years rebuilding his army and causing trouble, until he was an old man and died or he invaded someplace else. Let's face it, Saddam Hussein was an asshole. He had been an asshole for a long time, he liked being an asshole, and he was good at being an asshole. The odds he would stop being an asshole were pretty low. That left us where we started this whole sorry exercise, trying to contain an asshole.
So, how do we get rid of Saddam Hussein? He was costing us a fortune! By most estimates we had been paying out $1 to $2 billion every year paying for maintaining the no-fly zones, and been doing that for 15 years. Now we had a prospect of having to maintain significant forces in Kurdistan as well as Kuwait, and at least doubling our costs. It sounded a lot less than the cost of a war, but multiply it over a decade and a real war might be cheaper! The problem with Option Two was that it would almost certainly fail. Iraq was a pretty big place, and it would be pretty easy for a fellow on the run to find a place to hide. We weren't going to be able to just swoop in and kill or capture him, or we'd have done it already.
So, if a snatch and grab wasn't realistic, and we really wanted to grab Hussein, we would need a full blown invasion. That would be very problematical. Right off the bat we would lose about three quarters of the Coalition. Turkey might be pissed at the Iraqis and willing to defend the Kurds, but they were not about to send troops into Iraq. The same would be said of the rest of NATO, except maybe the Brits. Likewise, while the Iraqis might hate their dictator, they really hated non-Iraqis! Hussein would be able to trot out all the cant about Crusaders and colonialism and infidel invaders.
Two or three American divisions would be perfectly capable of invading and conquering the country, but then what? American military power was supremely capable of defending something, or smashing it to smithereens, both of which we had just demonstrated. It was not capable of controlling a subject population, which I knew from our experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq on my first go. Regardless, once we activated Option Two and went into Iraq, it would be very, very easy to fall into the trap of mission creep and go to Option Three, which was to take the place over and make the place into America Lite. That was nothing but a recipe for civil war, with us smack in the middle.
One thing that was clear, however, was that if we were going to go into Iraq, for whatever reason, we were going to need the full blown capabilities of a heavy armored division like the 1st Armored. We might as well bring them into the theater. If we didn't go in, we could send them home. I agreed to that, at least.
It was Richard Clarke of the CIA who had some interesting information. Rather than offer an opinion up on what we should do, he announced, "I am going to counsel caution. This morning we received an interesting report out of Baghdad. Several large explosions were detected by satellite at an army base to the east of the city. Also in that area were units of the Special Republican Guard, Hussein's Praetorian Guard. We're not really sure what that means, but we were able to intercept some signals that indicated that Hussein is ordering regular army units north, out of Baghdad and towards Kurdistan. Some of the army units might be pushing back against the Republican Guard. I am not ready to say this is true, but at least a couple of my analysts think this is the first sign of a crack in the regime."
I glanced around at the other faces. Lord knows but that we would all prefer that the Iraqis clean up their own mess! "Huh. Well, I don't want to commit anything until we get more information on this. Keep me informed." We left the meeting with no firm plans. Operation Kurdish Dragon would continue, as planned, but after that there would have to be a huge rest and recuperation period before we could ever invade. That might not be until the late summer.
Four days later I received a call from Richard Clarke asking to meet me as soon as possible. "Iraq?"
"Yes, sir. We need to talk."
"Come on over now." We hung up and I wondered what was happening. In the last four days Kurdish Dragon had finished destroying the Republican Guard. For the last couple of days, as soon as they started hearing tank engines over the horizon they had begun abandoning vehicles without a fight, and running southward. They were even photographed by drones pointing at the drones and holding their hands up in surrender. Our tanks would roll through and capture or blow away the abandoned equipment and then move on. At least these troops would have a chance to salvage some food and water before beginning the march back to Iraq.
We had continued to sustain some losses, but at a very low level. We were setting a new standard for armored combat. Kurdish Dragon had managed to effectively destroy half a dozen armored divisions, and at the total cost of about two battalions worth of American and British troops. It was so lopsided as to be meaningless. In some ways our troops were now stronger, in that well trained but otherwise green soldiers had been blooded and tested. They knew that with adequate supplies they could meet anybody in the world in combat now.
Whether that would be necessary was what I wanted to discuss with Richard. As it stood, the 1st Armored was at a marshaling site in eastern Turkey, where they were working up prior to moving into Kurdistan. We intended to have them work up in Turkey for a couple of weeks and then be transported into Kurdistan.
Richard was shown in, and he had a large briefcase with him. I had him sit down around the coffee table, and he sat on the left side of the couch. "Here, sir. Sit down next to me. It will be easier to show you some things."
"Sure." I sat down to his right, and he opened his briefcase and spread out several folders. He pulled some photos out of one of the folders. "What gives?"
"Mister President, we can't be sure, but there seems to be a very good chance that the Iraqi Army, the regular army, is in a state of rebellion against Saddam Hussein."
"Really? That would be good news."
"Yes, sir!" He pointed to several of the photos. "These are from both satellite reconnaissance and U-2 overflights. See, here ... and here ... the damage here was not done by American aircraft. This damage is characteristic of artillery ... this is a mortar crater, here and here ... this tank is burning. These photos are from two army bases in the immediate Baghdad area, and this one is known as the home base of an armored brigade from the Special Republican Guard."
I gave a noncommittal grunt at this, and Richard continued, "There's more. From radio intercepts we know that Hussein has ordered regular army units north. That is in addition to the ones he already ordered to attack the 101st. He has ordered at least one armored and one mechanized unit from central Iraq to move north, towards Kurdistan, and we picked up a lot of radio and cell phone chatter about this. This base here..." He tapped one of the photos with damage on it. " ... is the home base for the 34th Mechanized Infantry, and there has obviously been some fighting here that we didn't cause!"