"So? What is this telling your analysts?", I asked.
He had an excited look in his eyes. "Okay, we can't be 100% sure, but this could be the first real crack in their system. We will know better in the next 24 to 48 hours, but we could be seeing the beginning of armed resistance to Saddam Hussein."
"What? Are you saying the regular army might be fighting against the Republican Guard?"
"Yes. Maybe. We'll know in a day or two for sure."
"Hold here for a second." I grabbed my phone and spoke to the secretary outside, and asked her to find John McCain and Frank Stouffer if they were available. I knew Frank was down the hallway, and I didn't think John was away, but they both might be in meetings.
They weren't. Both came in about a minute later, John on Frank's heels. "What's up? I had to cancel a call with Ken Mehlman." Ken was the Chairman of the Republican National Committee.
I motioned them to take my place on the couch next to Clarke. "Richard, show them what you just showed me."
For the next ten minutes, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency gave the Vice President and my Chief of Staff a reprise of the CIA's latest intelligence. I used it as a useful review. Afterwards, Frank looked at me and asked, "So their army is fighting amongst itself?"
"It's more than that. If this is true, it means a possible civil war. The thing to remember, Frank, is that in a lot of dictatorships - and let's face it, that's what we have here – you have two separate armies. You have the regulars and you have the dictator's personal army. In World War II, for instance, you had the regular German army, the Wehrmacht, and then you had the SS with their own army, directly sworn to Hitler. Different generals, different chains of command. The Soviet Union had something similar, in that the KGB maintained an army separate from the regular army. In Iraq, you have the Republican Guard as Hussein's personal troops.", I told him.
"It goes even beyond that.", said Richard. "Back in 1991, when President Bush issued the ceasefire, that allowed at least half the Republican Guard and its equipment to escape back into Iraq. Saddam used those troops to maintain control over the country. Now? Kurdish Dragon has simply destroyed the Republican Guard! I doubt he has an entire Guard division left, and they are scattered around the country. If he starts ordering the regular army into a suicidal attack on us in the north, and they balk, he doesn't have the troops to force them. That's what I mean by radio and email chatter. We are getting signs they are talking to each other about that sort of thing."
"How can they do that? I thought we destroyed all their power plants and radio stations.", I asked.
Both Richard and John shrugged at that. "Trust me on this, Carl, I used to fly bombers over Viet Nam. You never really get everything. Besides, they can always use portable generators and radios.", replied McCain.
"Huh." I looked at Richard. "And you think we will learn more by tomorrow?"
"Yes, sir. It is either going to grow or be shut down quick. We will know for sure in one day. Two, tops!"
"Huh." I looked at the other two. "I really don't want to have to go into Iraq to get that asshole. I mean, I really, really, really don't want to go in! If the Iraqis want to hand us his head, I will be more than happy to call a truce and let them be."
"Put more pressure on them. Move the 173rd closer to the border, and start rebuilding the 1st and 2nd Brigades. Tighten the noose. Start advertising that the rest of the 1st Armored is in Turkey and is practicing for an invasion. Get the Iraqis scared enough to do something about Hussein.", argued John.
I gave a thoughtful look to Richard. "Think that might work? Can we make it work? Do we still have a psychological warfare plan?"
"Let me sit on this overnight. After I get the morning briefing, I will talk to some people in the Pentagon. I don't want to frighten them so much they decide to pull together in the face of the Crusaders.", he replied.
I shrugged. Damned if you do and damned if you don't. "Okay, keep us informed. It might be too early, but this could be very good news."
The news didn't stay secret for long. The next morning, during my regular staff session, Will Brucis hit me with a question. "Boss, I got a question from Al Jazeera this morning, asking for a comment on what is happening in Baghdad. They are reporting that there is open fighting between the regular army and supporters of Saddam Hussein and the Republican Guard."
I sat back in my armchair. "Really! That's interesting. What are they telling you?"
Al Jazeera was an international news agency based in Qatar, and astonishingly, fairly independent and accurate. Unlike the average Middle Eastern news station, they were not a mouthpiece for the government, nor did they spout mindless conspiracy drivel. They had a huge Muslim audience, and were one of the few independent news agencies who had managed to get reporters into both sides of the war so far. The American right wing hated them, but whether it was because they were Muslim, Arab, or not pro-Israel wasn't clear.
"According to what I was told, their local correspondent in Baghdad reported that Saddam Hussein yesterday ordered three divisions of the Iraqi army north, to Kurdistan and the fighting, and two of them refused. At that point he ordered two others north, and one of them headed north, but the other left its base and headed towards Baghdad. Now there is fighting between some of the Iraqi army units and some troops loyal to Hussein.", explained Will.
"That is really very interesting.", I told him. I thought for a second, and added, "For now, all we want to say is that we are aware of the reports, and are looking into them, but otherwise have no knowledge of the events."
"Also, that we are hoping that the new government in Baghdad wishes to end hostilities.", added Frank Stouffer.
"New government?", I commented.
"Why not? Al Jazeera reports throughout the Arab world. Let's see what they make of that."
I looked at Will, who shrugged his shoulders. "Be a bit like throwing a fox into a hen house. Why not? They don't believe a word we say anyway, so let's get somebody else to do the dirty work."
I snorted and laughed, and approved the plan.
Will made the appropriate responses and comments at the morning's press briefing, for the first time labeling what was happening as an 'insurrection.' No response was made from Baghdad, probably because they had better things to do, like deal with an insurrection! I kept getting information from the CIA about what was happening, and we ordered a total stand-down of all forces attacking Iraq. They didn't need any help tearing the place apart, they were doing a fine job all by themselves.
By May 1, Al Jazeera was reporting that Baghdad was in the midst of a civil war, and that Saddam Hussein was with an armored unit of the Special Republican Guard. The reporter also stated that his two sons, Uday and Qusay, were in hiding. On the morning of May 2, Al Jazeera reported that their reporter had been found floating in the Tigris River. Investigative journalism is a chancy job in the Middle East.
Richard Clarke convened a meeting of the National Security Council on Wednesday, May 3, to discuss the mess over there. We still had the 1st Armored working up in Turkey, but they had been able to reinforce and resupply all our units in Kurdistan, and we had managed to fly in enough Strykers and Bradleys to rebuild the 2nd Cavalry and 1st Brigade. The 101st wanted to know when they could stop being jailers and have some more fun. Even the 82nd was beginning to rebuild and reorganize after their extended thumping. Clarke opened the meeting with an interesting tidbit – Qusay Hussein was being reported as dead.