“In short, Japan has occupied much of north and coastal China, but the central government and military have successfully retreated to the western interior and are continuing their resistance. However, the Chinese ability to continue fighting is dependent upon supplies from outside. They just don’t have the resources to continue fighting on their own. The Japanese have realized that it’s going to be impossible for them to achieve a decisive victory in the interior of China as long as those supplies flow in. So, they’ve started a major effort to cut them off. They’re occupying the ports along China’s coast for a start and they’re pressuring the French to shut down the Yunnan railway from Indo-China. If they succeed in doing all that, the supply line to China will be shut. The stalemate in the Chinese interior won’t last that long after that happens.”
“It is U.S. Government policy to support China in its defense against Japanese aggression. We have some rather odd allies in doing that. The Soviets have their own hand in the game. They’re supplying arms and equipment, mostly to the Chinese communist forces, but some is going to Chiang Kai Shek and his nationalists.” Cordell Hull grimaced. As a classical liberal, in his eyes the Communists were little better than the Japanese when it came to totalitarianism. On the other hand, he was realist enough to know that ‘a little better’ was still ‘better’ and the memories of what had happened at Nanking still sickened him.
“What we need is a new supply line.” Stuyvesant sounded thoughtful, but his mind was already ranging through the possibilities. “One way or another, the IndoChina ports and railways are going to be closed to us sooner or later. We have to build an alternative.”
“Easier said than done, Phillip. Have you seen the ground out there?”
In greater detail than you can possibly imagine. Stuyvesant thought.
“I have. It is bad, but there is a road already out there. It runs from Kunming to the Burmese border. It was built between 1937 and 1938; by hand, if you can believe that. It’s amazing what 200,000 people working with their bare hands can achieve. If we can hook up to that, then we can shift supplies through there. Roads aren’t as good as railways for shifting large quantities of good, but they’re better than nothing. We can use the ports in Burma, especially Rangoo;, shift the goodies by train to Lashio on the China-Burma border and then along the Kunming Road into China proper. At the very least, we can replace the Yunnan Railway that way.”
“You’re not mentioning the obvious problem, Phillip,” Hull was wary. “The Japanese won’t just sit still for that. Burma is British territory. They’ll pressure Halifax to close down the links you’re just mentioned and we know how Halifax reacts to pressure. He goes to pieces so fast, everybody around him is in danger from the shrapnel.” Hull sounded mightily disenchanted with the British Prime Minister.
“Well, he might well do so, but here’s the interesting thing. Some industrial colleagues of mine have been negotiating with the Indian Government recently and they picked up some revealing insights. One of them is that it’s open to question exactly who Burma reports to at this time. Until 1937, they were essentially a sub-office of India; and with the changes in London, there’s a strong move to return to that arrangement. The Indians might well be a lot less inclined to succumb to Japanese pressure than Halifax. Asserting their independence and standing as a nation, all that good stuff. Some judicious aid might well reinforce that desire.”
“We’ve given them several hundred aircraft; won’t that keep them happy?”
“It’s a start, but they need economic help as well as military. That’s why they’re moving to reincorporate Burma. They need the export goods. You see, Cordell, they can’t ignore Burma. They need the export earnings too badly. If they’re going to make a go of standing on their own feet, then they need to mark out a position in the world trade system as soon as possible. For that, they need Burma. Now, if we offer aid to them in exchange for no interference with us running supplies up to the Burma Road, they’ll take it.”
“Not if it means upsetting the Japanese. The whole reason why they jumped ship on the Empire was because they were afraid the terms of the Halifax Armistice gave the Japanese claim on India.” Hull shook his head. “Given a choice between forgoing our money and a Japanese occupation army, they’ll turn down our cash in a shot.”
“Perhaps not.” Stimson was thoughtful. “The Japanese had a lever against England. They could threaten Malaya, Singapore and Hong Kong. They don’t have a lever against India; they can’t get there from where they are now.”
“They can invade Burma.” Hull sounded very unconvinced.
Stimson laughed. “Not a chance. Not over the border between China and Burma. The only ways into Burma from China is either across some pretty impassable mountains or from Indochina, through Thailand into Malaya and Burma from the east.”
“There’s your answer then. The Thais are in Japan’s pocket. All they will do is direct traffic.” Hull set his jaw in determination.
“What makes you think that?” Stuyvesant sounded idle, but his mind was moving fast. This could turn into the opportunity Suriyothai is praying for.
“They’ve got a fascist government and they’re buying aircraft from the Japanese.”
“Come on now, Cordell.” Stimson jumped in with both feet. “They’re approaching the Japanese for aircraft because the State Department stopped delivery of NA-68 and NA-69 aircraft that the Thai Air Force had bought and paid for. Of course they’re looking for another supplier, and there aren’t too many options out there for them. As for a fascist government, they’ve just deposed an absolute monarch and replaced him with a constitutional monarchy and an elected parliament. That doesn’t sound like fascism to me.”
“They could have given those aircraft to the Japanese. Betrayed our secrets.” Hull was both obdurate and petulant. Listening to him, Stuyvesant wondered what was driving his opinions.
“Oh come on, Cordell; those aircraft are hardly the best we produce. They’re modified trainers, mostly. The Japanese may not have a first-line, world standard air force and navy, but they’re better than that. Anyway, I hear the Indians smile upon the Thais. I believe Nehru speaks well of them. If he does that, they can hardly be fascists or Japanese allies.”
“I second that.” Henry Morgenthau reinserted himself into the debate.
“When I was in Jamaica, Nehru himself said exactly that. He claimed the Thais had been of great service to India already and have showed themselves to be a trustworthy ally. He says that the Noth Plan makes it essential that India look west to its defense against the threatened German attack and that leaves them wide open to the East and Japan. They look to Thailand to guard their back door and specifically asked us to resume normal diplomatic and trade relations with Thailand in order to ensure that back door was properly guarded. And, very specifically, to resume arms sales to them.”
“The Noth Plan?” Stimson looked confused.
“A German plan for an attack on India. Essentially it involves two thrusts: an Italian push from North Africa, through Egypt and the Sinai, into Transjordan and a German thrust from the Balkans, through Turkey and Iraq, into India. There’s no doubt the plan is genuine, although how the Indians got hold of it is a mystery.” Morgenthau blinked owlishly. “If Indian intelligence is that good, they might be a more valuable ally than we thought.”