Unwilling to lose its valuable base at Colombo, China had taken the bold step of sending airborne troops to Sri Lanka, and they had literally commandeered the harbor in the northeast quadrant of the island at Trincomalee, and the nearby airfield, aptly named “China Bay.” Beijing had doubled down in its gamble to control Sri Lanka, and now it was spinning the roulette wheel of fate yet again.
When intelligence came in the night of January 20 that the Chinese fleet had sortied and was moving south off the Indian coast, eyebrows were raised in New Delhi. What was going on here? To make matters worse, the heart of Pakistan’s Navy at Karachi had also sortied behind the Chinese fleet. In the past, they had always stayed in littoral waters north of the actual border zone, which was only about 110 miles from Karachi. This time they were heading southeast, well beyond their waters, and something had to be done.
The Indian Navy had dispatched the diesel-electric submarine Kalvari to investigate, and now the Pakistani fleet was getting very close to that boat, so a decision had to be made. Should the submarine move inshore within India’s territorial waters, or stay where it was, about 100 miles off the Indian coast? A proud nation, with a substantial navy, India was not in the mood to find itself bullied or threatened by anyone, least of all the Pakistanis.
The second choice was more dangerous, and it would rely on the inherent stealth of the submarine to avoid detection and report on what the Paks were up to. Yet there was always a chance that the sub would be found, or even attacked, which would take an already tense international situation and twist the rope to the breaking point. The Navy’s first instinct was to reinforce the sub patrol, and a second boat, Chakra, was vectored towards Kalvari that hour. Indian ships at Mumbai were put on notice to get up steam, and the oil was burning late in the Naval General Staff headquarters.
India had watched the Chinese fleet pass uneventfully, for it was well out to sea. But here, one Pakistani task force was skirting the 30 mile limit line, and a heated discussion was held to determine whether the Indian fleet should show the flag. The Chinese were still close by, some argued. What if the fleet did sortie, and got into a scrap or confrontation with the Pakistani Navy? Would the Chinese weigh in, or leave it as a private fight between the two old enemies?
Others argued that the Pakistani ships could be trying to position themselves to screen the Chinese fleet from any interference as they passed. In either case, India didn’t like these unruly visitors off her coast, and she had the Navy to do something about it.
New Delhi did not think Beijing wanted trouble, for the two countries already shared a disputed border zone. Western powers had been pressing India to join their alliance, but thus far, New Delhi had maintained neutrality in the war. But they were not about to tolerate a deliberate provocation by Pakistan. The military was put on high alert, and eventually, the Navy was ordered to make a show of force from Mumbai. India had 27 warships at that major western port, and that is exactly what they would do.
Admiral Sun Wei had been given his marching orders, and he left Karachi with 17 ships on the night of the 20th of January, leaving a token force of two older destroyers behind. Nearly 20 hours later he was well south, passing the Indian port of Mumbai, about 130 miles off the coast. He was giving the Indian Government no reason to be concerned, the proverbial “wide berth” as he headed south, but the move being made by the Pakistani Fleet would certainly be provocative. It was meant to draw the attention of the Indian Navy north, and not west as the Chinese passed Mumbai, and it had exactly the desired effect, risky as it was.
As a precaution, a quiet diplomatic message was sent to New Delhi explaining that the Chinese had no hostile intention, and were merely redeploying their fleet to Sri Lanka. This left India in a difficult position. China wanted no trouble, but would they support the Pakistani Fleet is it came to blows? The notion that they were now taking their war to Sri Lanka was also unwelcome.
Admiral Sun Wei knew those yarrow sticks would have to fall where they may. His primary concern was the American Navy, a force that would certainly be hostile, and one he knew he had to reckon with. At that hour, satellite recon imaging placed the Americans about 360 miles to the southwest, and he knew they would certainly not come any closer. In fact, they could be launching strike planes at me now, he thought, considering his options.
I have taken the last of the YJ-100’s stored at Karachi, and now my destroyers are carrying 110 of those beasts. They will most likely be the only weapons I can use against this Carrier Strike Group, and I doubt I will be able to hurt them, even with that many missiles. The War Gods are still at Hyderabad, but they would have to fly within 215 miles of the American carrier to release their YJ-12’s, and that will expose them to grave danger from the enemy fighters. The Air Force will not permit it, and those bombers will be recalled to China.
So this is a run through the gauntlet. They will strike with aircraft, and then Tomahawks, and we are weaker now than we might be near Karachi, as I have no air defense here at all. The last of the J-20’s wagged their wings and turned for home an hour ago. Now we are on our own.
He knew, in the long run, that the fleet’s chances of survival were only as good as the SAM count. He had divided his ships into two groups, with the main body of ten ships having all his better destroyers. Together they could muster about 420 HQ-9’s. The remaining seven ships formed an outer screen, about 14 miles off his starboard side, out near the horizon. They were the lighter destroyers, and had 192 HQ-16 SAM’s as their best defense.
So let it begin, he thought. The Americans are in range of my YJ-100’s now. Should I strike with everything, or just labor to keep them on the defensive and buy time?
“Signal the screen,” he ordered. “They are to alter course to 185 degrees south, and attempt to close inside 300 miles at 30 knots. The main body will now execute Plan Warhorse.”
That was his first strike order with the YJ-100’s, and each destroyer had been assigned targets and given instructions as to how many missiles they should fire. Only 40 of the 110 would go in this attack, but they would focus on just two ships, the contact presumed to be the carrier Independence, and its closest screening unit.
Captain Holmes signed off on the morning strike and was heading for his chair on the bridge when the radar team noted a contact aspect heading change that hour. A group of enemy ships had altered course on an intercept heading, and increased speed.
“And sir, Argent Forward just reported vampires, about 284 miles out now.”
“They’re attacking with the YJ-100’s,” said Holmes. “Alright, tell the Air Boss to shake ‘em loose.”
“Yes sir.”
Independence had teed up a squadron of Avengers with the LRASM and another of F-35’s with GBU-53. They would all be airborne in a matter of minutes, even as the first SM-6 missiles started firing at the distant Vampires, which were now 130 miles out. That the US ships could see and target the low flying enemy missiles that far away was a tribute to their excellent radar and missile technology.