“Be calm for a moment and let me think,” Bien ordered. “There are matters that must be decided, and anger will not help us.”
“You would see them ashore in our country again? Burning, raping, destroying in the name of their democracy?”
“Come now. They have hardly landed on our shores. There is not even an amphibious vessel with the ships. No marines, no army.”
“Guns and aircraft alone can do enough damage,” Ngyugen muttered darkly.
“So can foolish talk!” Bien snapped. “Think for a minute! Do you really believe that the Americans have destroyed both of those islands?”
Ngyugen shot him an uncertain look that gradually solidified into outrage. For a general to talk so to him — it was unacceptable. But to have said those words, Bien undoubtedly possessed some key bit of information that he believed exempted him from the respect due to the older man. Still, the facts were obvious. “Of course. Their aircraft were above both locations as the explosions took place. What other purpose could there be for the ships being in our waters? And Colonel Mein Low assures me that the Chinese intelligence and satellite reports-“
“-say exactly what the army wants them to,” Bien finished.
“Are you implying that I have been misled?” Ngyugen’s face darkened as he considered the possibility. If it were so, then Bien indeed did have knowledge that would prove exceedingly useful. Perhaps it would be better to overlook the earlier disrespect, at least until Ngyugen could determine what secrets the general held.
“I imply nothing. Ambassador, you must remember that you are a prime target for Chinese manipulation and deceit. They understand how important you are to your country, and have chosen to try out their scheme first on you,” Bien said soothingly. “Luckily, I can tell from your comments that their plan will not succeed.”
Ngyugen recognized the attempt to placate him and allowed himself to be calmed. Bien might think him a fool, but Ngyugen was a critical part of Bien’s source of power, and the military commander knew better than to alienate his political connections. At least not until Bien could replace Ngyugen with someone more useful. Ngyugen watched Bien smile ingratiatingly at him.
“They do know of my army career,” Ngyugen said meaningfully, as the possibility that Bien might be right began to make sense.
“Of course they do. How could anyone overlook your two years of military service? Undoubtedly why they chose you as the key test of how believable their story is,” Bien said calmly. “Their foolishness is our gain. Very few members of the delegation could have hidden their insights so well. I am pleased that you chose me as the test of your facade. You must remember, I know you far better than most, yet I was deceived by your reaction for almost five minutes.” Bien forced a chuckle. “I almost believed that you believed their story. My apologies.”
“Accepted,” said Ngyugen, since nothing else in Bien’s entire conversation made sense to him.
“So you see the truth to this, of course. It is not the Americans who are behind this, if for no other reason than because the Chinese claim that they are. There are other facts, certainly. The fact that the Americans rarely intervene anywhere anymore without a United Nations resolution to validate their meddling. That they were here for a month before the bombings began, and have followed a routine pattern of operations and deployments for the South China Sea.” Bien shook his head. “Clearly the Chinese will have a difficult time convincing anyone of their deception, much less the more astute political observers such as yourself.”
“We must expose this sham to the world!” Ngyugen declared.
“Perhaps — in time,” Bien said musingly. “But I think there are other ways that it can be used to our advantage at this time.”
“What are you suggesting?”
“That regardless of which country is behind the destruction — or even if it is a renegade group of terrorists acting alone — the Americans are taking entirely too much for granted in our area of the world. Withholding normalization of relations with our country, dictating trade terms to our neighbors — no, it would be extremely useful to all of us if the Americans perceived a united Pacific Rim standing against them. Then they would be desperate to gain a toehold in this area, which could only help us gain valuable trade concessions.”
“So we unite the region against both the Americans and China!”
“Not just yet. Remember, even after the Americans leave, we will still have to live with China. Better, perhaps, to pretend to believe China’s story for now. Place them in debt to us for our cooperation, assist them in persuading the others. That could be more useful to us in the long run.”
“But the Spratly Islands! The oil! That is our property, Bien! You suggest we just sit idly by while America and China apportion out our rights?”
“No, of course not. But another approach might work just as well.”
Bien talked for another fifteen minutes, explaining a plan that his eight-year-old son would have understood in five minutes. Finally, Ngyugen started nodding.
CHAPTER 16
“You’re certain this will work?” Tombstone asked the Intelligence Officer.
“If it were certain, it wouldn’t be intelligence,” Lab Rat replied wryly. “High probability, Admiral, based on the patterns we’ve observed, but no guarantees.”
Tombstone sighed. “No guarantees if we don’t do something, either.”
“Exactly. At least this plan takes advantage of what we do know about the Chinese.”
“It sounds too simple.”
“Simple doesn’t mean easy. Timing is everything on this.” Lab Rat held up his hand, ticking the points off on his fingers. “We know that the attacks are occurring while we have aircraft in the area. Coincidental? Probably not. Presumably, someone intends to make it look like the U.S. is responsible, especially since it’s happened more than once. That leads me to the second point.” Lab Rat held up the next finger.
“How do they know when we’re in the area? Couple of possibilities, offhand. First, satellites. A possibility, especially if they have long-range Tomahawks on alert the entire time, but not a high probability, since the reaction time is so fast. Remember, though, that our satellite coverage may be of intense interest to them. This would be important to them because a satellite might catch the missile in the process of launching, which would completely blow their cover. So I’m looking at our satellite coverage, not theirs.
“The second possibility is surveillance of some sort. But we haven’t detected surface ships or aircraft at the time of every incident. Maybe the submarine, but I doubt it. It’s too slow and has too low a horizon. Third — and my favorite possibility — reports by the sites themselves of visuals on American aircraft. Now that makes sense!”
“I’m not sure I agree completely,” Tombstone said reflectively. “There’s always the possibility that they just understand how carrier flight ops work, and are taking their chances that we’ll fly by to look at their rocks during cycle times.”
“A possibility, of course, but one that leaves too much open to chance. First, what if we’d changed flight cycle time, for whatever reason? Fouled deck, you name it — a thousand things can throw a flight schedule off. Second, even if they know when we’re launching aircraft, they can’t know exactly where the fighters are headed. We don’t even know that, other than they’re headed for CAP stations with a few surveillance checkpoints along the way. No, too much to chance. Remember, there are three reported incidents. Every one took place when our assets were in the area. More importantly, none took place when we weren’t there.”