Belisarius looked back at Garmat.
“Before I answer you, I have a question. Describe the military capabilities of Axum. Strengths and weaknesses.”
Garmat did not hesitate. The die had been cast.
“The army of the negusa nagast is very good, in my opinion. I have fought against them, you know, as well as with them. My bedouin were no match for them in a pitched battle, as the Arabs learned some time ago. In a raid, taking advantage of our mobility, we could occasionally overcome small detachments of sarwen. And we could always escape them. The Axumite army is an infantry army, essentially. Their cavalry is very small, and weak. Couriers, for the most part. And they have no skill with camels at all.”
He stroked his beard.
“Axum is not really a land power, as Rome is. True, King Kaleb rules over a vast region. But it is nowhere near as vast as Rome, even-”
He hesitated. Belisarius smiled.
“In private, Garmat, we will dispense with the formality that the western Mediterranean is still ruled by the Emperor.”
Garmat smiled back. “As you wish. As I was saying, even if we exclude the western portions of your empire, Rome’s territory is still much larger than Axum’s. And the disparity is even greater in terms of population. You have visited Ethiopia yourself, now. As you saw, it is essentially a highland region, with control over the Red Sea and portions of Arabia. Mountains and deserts, for the most part. So, our people are not numerous, even if we include the Arabs and southern barbarians under our rule. And thus, our army is not large. Good, but small.”
Garmat paused for a moment, thinking, then continued:
“The strength of the Axumite army lies primarily in the skill and discipline of the sarawit. Their discipline lacks the subtlety of Roman discipline, mind you. The Empire of Axum does not have the history that Rome does. It was forged in conquest, true, just as your empire was. But the Ethiopians fought only barbarians, except when they conquered Meroe. And the kingdom of the Nubians, by then, was a decrepit thing. Barely a shadow of its former glory, long ago, when it ruled all of Egypt. So-”
Belisarius nodded. “I understand. Firm discipline, which maintains a good order in battle. That is all one needs to defeat barbarians. But no subtlety in tactics. Much as the Roman army might have been, had we never faced such civilized foes as the Etruscans, Carthaginians, Greeks, and Persians.”
“Yes. But there’s more to it. The real power of Axum lies in its control over trade routes. Especially the sea-borne trade. So, you have a peculiar situation. Although the heartland of Ethiopia is a highland region, the kingdom itself is a naval power. Our sarawit are produced and trained in the highlands, but serve primarily at sea.”
“So they are marines, basically,” said Belisarius.
Garmat nodded. “Yes. From what you told me, I gather that our recent affray with the Arab pirates was your first personal experience in a sea battle. You can understand, then, the qualities needed for marines.”
Belisarius gazed up at the ceiling of the room, thinking back upon the battle.
“Courage, and skill with weapons-the combat is close, ferocious, and unforgiving. Firm discipline-iron discipline, even. But no tactical sophistication. There’s no need for it in the tight quarters of a boarding operation. Nor room, for that matter.”
He looked back down at Garmat.
“And those are the weaknesses of the Axumite army. Small numbers. Inexperience in large land battles. Primitive tactics.”
“Yes.”
“That’s about what I thought.”
“May I ask the purpose of these questions?”
“Of course. It goes back to the matter of the Indian ships we were talking about. You are puzzled, I think, by what we’ve seen in the harbor.”
Garmat nodded. “I fail to understand the Malwa purpose in launching such a ship-building project. Such an enormous project, building such enormous ships. Ships of the size we saw being created in the harbor are very expensive, Belisarius. Men who are not seamen, even experienced generals such as yourself, never really grasp how expensive such vessels are. To maintain and operate, as much as to build.”
The adviser shrugged. “So what is the point of doing it, when the ships themselves are so poorly designed for sea battles? Even given the Malwa rocket weapons. Especially in light of the rockets. If I were in charge, I would build a great number of small, swift craft. They would serve just as well for platforms from which to fire rockets. Better, for they would be more maneuverable.”
Belisarius chuckled. “Spoken like a true seaman! Or, I should say, like an adviser to a monarch whose power lies at sea.”
The general arose from his couch and began pacing.
“But the Indians are not a sea power, Garmat. Not the Malwa, at least. They are almost exclusively a land power, and think in those terms.”
He stopped his pacing and scratched his chin.
“There’s one other weakness to your Axumite army, Garmat, which you didn’t mention. I’m sure you didn’t even think of it. But it’s an inevitable weakness, flowing from your own description.”
“And that is?”
“You have no real experience with logistics. Not, at least, on the scale where logistics dominate an entire campaign.”
Garmat thought for a moment, then nodded.
“I suppose that’s true. The largest force fielded by Axum in modern times was the army which we sent to conquer Yemen. Four sarawit-slightly over three thousand men. Not many, by the standards of Rome or Persia. Or India. And supplying them was not difficult, of course, because-”
“You are a naval power, and were conquering a coastal region. Do you have any idea how difficult it is to supply an army numbering in the tens of thousands, marching across a vast region far removed from any coast?”
Garmat began to speak, paused, shook his head.
“No, not really.”
Belisarius chuckled.
“It is quite comical, for a Thracian general, to read the histories of Rome’s wars which are written by Greek scholars. They almost invariably report armies numbering in the tens and hundreds of thousands. Especially barbarian armies.”
He laughed outright.
“Barbarians! Not even Rome, with all its skill and experience, can field armies of that size. Not inland, at any rate. Much less can barbarians. And the reason, of course, is logistics. What’s the point of marching a hundred thousand men to their death from starvation?”
He resumed his seat. “So-to the point. If you were the Malwa emperor, and were planning to conquer the West, how would you do it?”
Garmat stroked his beard. “I suppose-there is the route through Bactria-”
“Don’t even think about it.”
“Why not? It’s the traditional route for invaders of India, after all. So why shouldn’t the Indians return the compliment?”
“Because the Indians will be fielding a modern army. They are not barbarian nomads, who can haul everything with them-what little they have to haul in the first place. The Malwa are not seeking plunder, they are seeking conquest and permanent rule. It is not enough for them to march to the walls of Ctesiphon or Antioch or Constantinople and demand tribute. To conquer, they must conquer cities. And no barbarians have ever conquered a major fortified city, except by treachery.”
“Alexander-”
Belisarius nodded. “Yes, I know. Alexander the Great also took that route, when he tried to conquer India. What of it? He failed in his purpose, you may recall. Not the least of the reasons being the exhaustion of his army after campaigning through those endless mountains. Which is why-and now we get to the point-he did not return that way.”
Garmat frowned. “The coastal route? But that was an even greater disaster for the Macedonians, Belisarius!” He began to continue, then closed his mouth.
“Yes. Precisely. It was a disaster for the good and simple reason that Alexander did not understand the monsoons. But we do, today. And so do the Indians.”