Hammond sighed, yes, but at least you have some place to go to for now. We have two days. I won’t go back until Sunday night,” he said. He reached over and turned off the lights. The glow of the fake fireplace reflected off the walls while each simply basked in the company of the other. An hour later, Roger Hammond stood, took the hand of his wife and led her to their bedroom.
Executive Summary
After a three month study of current conditions it is the conclusion of the panel that the largest threat to the United States and NATO is Russia. This is predicated in four undeniable facts:
1. Russia has expanded its military arm to a force of over five million. Their equipment is currently a minimum of four times the size of all NATO forces, including the United States. Appendix (A) outlines military forces.
2. Over the past three years, Russia has incorporated a majority of former Warsaw Pact countries back under its influence. Using the excuse that Russian expatriates are being mistreated by local peoples and governments, they have systematically overrun five of these small nations. Appendix (B) provides documentation on recent operations.
3. There is growing unrest in Poland for the same reasons as outlined in (2) above. Appendix (C) provides additional information specific to Poland. NATO has decided that if Poland is attacked, they will respond. Appendix (D), Overview of current NATO plans and policies.
4. Intelligence sources indicate that Russia is making preparations and moving people and material closer to the Polish border. Appendix (E), Intelligence assessment (Classified).
It is anticipated that Russia will attempt to take Poland and the nations on the European continent. We anticipate the following:
1. Russia will attack Poland and continue across the continent until reaching the English Channel. Once Europe has been so divided, they will fan north and south to encompass all of Europe.
2. The attack will coincide with attacks on all NATO allies including the United States. These attacks will be designed to prevent significant interference by the allies in assisting Poland and delay reinforcement.
1. Attacks on Great Britain to preclude use of air power and Royal Navy assets. This may come by use of cruise missile technology and their submarine force. Eventually, we anticipate the use of submarines to blockade Britain from receiving both military and civilian supplies. See Appendix (F).
2. Air attacks on France to reduce air strength and the ability to counterattack or support ground troops. Additional submarine activity to prevent supply reinforcement. See Appendix (G).
3. Air attacks on other NATO nations to reduce airpower and the ability to provide reinforcing ground troops. See Appendix (H).
4. Attacks on the United States to slow and delay any coordinated response by United States forces on land, sea or air. We anticipate a major effort to reduce the size of the Navy, especially its aircraft carrier forces, so that quick reinforcement will be difficult. This will also prevent a flexible response due to the lack of ability to project power via the sea. The use of submarine forces will be extensive. Although the Russian Air Force does not have the ability to reach North American targets effectively, they do have the assets to prevent air resources from crossing the Atlantic and providing support for NATO operations. In addition, with the loss of naval assets and air supremacy, the United States will not be able to provide combat troops in Europe. See Appendix (I) — (K).
We anticipate that the attack will come in the late fall of the year, since the winter months tend to work in favor of the Russians. It may coincide with a national holiday in the hopes our forces will not be alert. The attack will be with their best forces and along a relatively small front. In this way, they can push like a dagger through Europe to the English Channel. Appendix (L).
NATO does not have the forces to stop such an attack. At most, NATO will have 600,000 troops available and five divisions of tanks. Air assets are roughly one quarter that of the Russians. Naval assets are roughly one third that of Russia. Of note, Russian submarines have been building their submarine forces far faster than NATO. We anticipate it will be the main naval projection of power. Appendix (A) — (D). One can anticipate the use of submarine launched cruise missiles, torpedoes, and mines.
NATO commanders concur with this assessment.
Recommendations:
1. Begin moving people and materials to Europe now. Once hostilities begin, such efforts will be much more difficult.
2. Begin forward deploying air force assets to all NATO countries so that they will be ready to counter Russian air efforts.
3. Deploy the submarine forces so that few assets are in port. Position these assets to track enemy submarines and be in a position to conduct unrestricted submarine warfare.
4. Keep our aircraft carriers and their battle groups at sea as much as possible. Never have more than one carrier in port at one time. The sea provides some additional security.
5. Increase our minesweeping operations around United States and overseas ports.
6. Begin working within NATO to firmly establish a wartime chain of command and then train to that structure.
7. Increase our technological advantages. Since NATO cannot face Russia toe-to-toe, we must use the advantages we have in technology and our warfighting abilities. According to intelligence assets, Russian technologies are approximately twenty five years behind that of the United States. This does not mean their systems are not effective, it simply means we have a slight advantage. We must use all our advantages in order to have a chance of countering this threat. See Appendix (M) for assets available.
8. Move against the Russian infrastructure. Little effort has been made to maintain power grids, fuel distribution, oil production, or basic systems like water and sewer. Transportation systems are almost archaic. Blows to these systems will do nothing but slow down production and movement of supplies to the front. See appendix (N).
If Russia is successful in taking continental Europe, Great Britain can effectively be cut off from any assistance. It may fall. If so, the United States will be alone in the world to challenge this immense threat. Moving people and materials to counter a fallen Europe will be much more difficult than the Battle of Normandy, if possible at all. Few other countries in the world would be able to help. If the Russian moves are later joined by China, the United States would be a great peril.
***
The Secretary of Defense put the summary down on the table. The entire document was over six inches deep. The evidence was damning. He looked around the table. “I must concur with these conclusions. I’m sure State is seeing some of the same things. Of course, we must continue talks with the Russians, but this is too much like 1939. We all know what happened then. Roger Hammond and his panel of officers have done a magnificent job getting it all down in plain English. Now it’s up to us to decide whether to use this as a template or put it in a file cabinet somewhere and suffer the consequences,” he said as he sat back down.
The cabinet remained quiet for a moment. The Secretary of State was the first to speak. “He’s correct. My people are counting the days. All we get is that they are a peace-loving people looking out for the best interests of Russians worldwide. Our concerns are met with what they think we want to hear. It’s all a whitewash and I don’t know how to prevent it. Substitute Nazi Germany with the word Russia and history is repeating itself. Talking to our NATO ambassadors we get the same answers. War is coming and we need to be ready.”
“Mister President, the Joint Chiefs agree. We would like to adopt this blueprint and get things going. I know we told the NATO allies we wanted them to put up first, but in this case, we can’t be left behind. It would be a disaster,” said Chairman Black.