“Since setting up and enforcing a blockade is an act of war,” he began, “we had better remember that the Japanese have a blue-water navy made up entirely of submarine assets. Their air force is formidable. Several squadrons of Firestar fighters. As I’m sure General Clough knows, the Firestar fighters are considered more than a match for our F-16s, F-15s and F-14s. The F/A-18 stands a slight chance, and the AFX advanced fighter has technology almost as good. Almost. As far as the Maritime Self Defense Force is concerned, half of the subs are the new Destiny III class, computer-controlled and extremely quiet. The other half are the Destiny II class, the earlier manned vessels. Also quiet and lethal. Just one of these submarines lurking off the coast of Japan would make a battle-group commander think twice about setting up a blockade. But it’s more than one. There are almost thirty of these killer subs. Some are being built, some are being repaired or refitted, but our latest estimates show between twenty-two and twenty-six vessels.”
“So?” CIA director Leach asked, speaking up for the first time, while looking at his fingernails. “The Japanese may have some nice toys, as you say, but I understand their robot subs are problematic and—”
Warner broke in. “Admiral Pacino, you called a blockade an act of war?”
“Madam President, as far as international and maritime law are concerned, a blockade is exactly that. We would be as much at war with Japan, legally, as if we’d invaded them.”
“That’s true, technically,” Phillip Gordon said, surprised at Pacino’s fairly arcane knowledge for a military man. “We could introduce a resolution to the UN that specifies sanctions against Japan, no one trading with her at all, unless Japan allows a UN team to inspect and dismantle all the other radiation weapons, as well as ordering Japan to eliminate her air force and navy. The trouble is getting key nations to go along with the sanctions. We’ve had conversations with Vorontsev’s people.” Vladimir Vorontsev was the new president of the Russian Republic.
“And?” Warner prompted.
“Well, we need to consider events in Russia as well as those in Japan. Russia and America, as you all know, have grown further apart over the last fifteen years. Russia’s governments have been steadily more authoritarian. The Russians are poor. If we set up an effective economic embargo, Russia will abstain from voting for sanctions in the Security Council. It will be an opportunity for them to cozy up to a power, to Japan. Russia has the oil, ore, and lumber that the Japanese need. If we put sanctions on Japan, Russia will still trade with them. They’ll see it as win-win. They get trade and reduce their own risk of being invaded themselves by Japan. Bottom line — Russia will keep Japan resupplied even after the UN votes sanctions. So sanctions will mean nothing. We are back to a blockade now, which would eliminate a Russian resupply.”
Pacino looked at her, almost seeing through her attempts to seem almost naive, a posture that made the men speak their minds more than if she revealed her own opinions.
“Furthermore,” Gordon said. “If we are slow to put up a blockade around Japan, the Russians would resupply Japan, neutralizing the sanctions. We would have a very tough time effecting a blockade two weeks from now, with the Russians already supplying Japan — it would mean a confrontation at sea with the Russians. If we go ahead and set it up now, the Russians would think twice about running it.”
“You’ll still have to wait,” Pacino put in. “The carrier battle group operating in the Pacific under Exercise Pacific Thrust is a long way from Japan. Seven days at tactical-approach velocity from the inner waters around Japan.”
“So, Admiral Pacino,” the president said! “you are saying the blockade would be an act of war. And Phillip, you’re saying that without it, sanctions are useless, because there’s a new Russian alignment toward Japan.”
“Exactly,” Philip Gordon said. “Another damned tightrope.”
“Admiral Pacino, how would you recommend proceeding?”
Thin ice, Pacino thought. With Wadsworth in Africa, he was being asked to recommend the Navy’s advice during a time of crisis. If he were wrong, Wadsworth would crucify him. If he were right, Wadsworth would be just as angry for taking the political spotlight from him.
“I’m sure Admiral Wadsworth would be better to—”
“Admiral Pacino,” Warner said, iron in her voice, “I’ve asked’your recommendation and I want to hear it. I didn’t ask Boxing Tony, I asked you.”
“Yes, well, I see it like this. The fleet is a week out of Japan. We should do our work now in the UN, as though sanctions will work. We get State to work on Vorontsev to hold back, even if it means giving him some trade benefits, making him whole on the money he’ll lose. Then we take out every Japanese Galaxy satellite in orbit, all ten of them. Our submarines sortie from east and west, seek out the Japanese fleet and sink their submarines. Our aircraft carrier air arm takes on the Firestar fighters, one hopes with a covert night raid that catches them on the ground. Or General Clough’s Stealth fighters could go in to neutralize the air force. And if we’re quick about it, we could use air attacks to neutralize some of their submarines, because once they’re at sea, they’ll give us a hell of a fight. We can claim that the strike is done to bring Japan back into compliance with their own constitution, and that we have to take that step because the Greater Manchurian missile attack shows that they can’t be trusted with a military. By that time the USS Ronald Reagan is in the immediate waters off Japan and we can enforce our blockade. The Russians, I suggest, won’t fool with us when we have Japan surrounded. But just in case, I recommend we also send the other battle groups to sea.”
Pacino reached into his briefcase for his Writepad computer.
“The carriers Abraham Lincoln and United States are in Pearl Harbor, being fueled and loaded out now. They can be ready to go to sea tomorrow on your orders, Madam President. In addition we can assemble a European force with the French carrier De Gaulle and the Royal Navy’s Ark Royal, both of them accompanied by their escort forces. The Brits and French are visiting Guam now and they can load out, fuel up and get underway within thirty-six hours. The Royal Australian Navy has a small force that could come up from the south. By Christmas, if we’re quick, we could have Japan encircled.”
Warner waited for comments, and when there were none, looked hard at Pacino.
“Admiral, you are saying you would hold off the Japanese until the first carrier battle group is closer, then take out the Japanese surveillance and communication satellites, then attack and blow up the Japanese air force and submarine navy, then set up the blockade. Is that how you see it?”
“Yes, ma’am. We should be deliberate about it, but we should hit the Japanese with a knockout punch now and make our demands later.”
“And if they fight back?”
“Madam President, they will fight back. This is exactly what happened just before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941. We cut off the flow of their oil, they were backed into a corner. Once in the corner, they fought to get out, among other things. And they’ll do it again.”
“So you’re saying we are heading for war?”
“I’m saying that Japan is an island nation. It’s like a scuba diver, if you will. If we cut off its air, it can either die or fight back, and the Japanese aren’t likely to lie down and die.”
“And so?”
“The Reagan task force is accompanied by two 688-class submarines. If the Japanese deploy their submarines in force they could conceivably overcome the 688 subs and sink them. After that, the surface force would be easy pickings. There are a dozen admirals in the navy senior to me who would jump down my throat for saying this, but it’s true — the only effective antisubmarine warfare device is another submarine. Destroyers and frigates and helicopters and P-3 patrol planes are good, damned good, but good won’t wash against the Japanese. Their subs and crews are the best. Their technology is on the cutting edge. Their sub is the latest generation built. Even our Seawolf class was designed a decade and a half ago, and we only have two of them. The Destiny class is equal to, if not better than, the NSSN, our new submarine being designed.”