Since arriving in Beijing, Vincent had also been monitoring the political situations between Mongolia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. These were all areas that the Chinese considered part of a “Greater China,” seen as lost provinces. The more he continued to keep an eye on the situations there, something just wasn’t quite adding up with all of the activity taking place there between the Chinese diplomats and the security personnel, but he couldn’t quite place his finger on it.
As he was thinking about this mystery one day, Vincent was walking towards the cafeteria for lunch when he ran into the Regional Security Officer (RSO), Orlando Martinez. He smiled broadly. He was always happy to see this man that had become his friend. He waved over to him. “Hey Orlando, how are you doing today?”
The two of them fell in step towards the cafeteria. The smell of stir fry was wafting through the hallway as they approached.
“Oh, I’m fine. The wife and kids just got back from the new Disney Shanghai Resort. They had a great time, although of course I wish I could have gone,” Orlando replied, a bit sullen.
“I’m sorry you were not able to join them,” Vincent remarked, taken aback. “Something keep you here?” Vincent asked. He was curious to know what could have kept his friend from this trip; the poor guy had been planning that vacation for months. It was all he had talked about.
Orlando sighed. The two of them got in line for the cafeteria’s special of the day before he asked, “You know Mika, that new RSO that joined us two months ago?”
“Yeah, smart woman, and fluent in the language, too,” Vincent replied. Most RSOs rotated from one geographical region to another, so very few of them truly became proficient in the language of the host nation to which they were assigned. Vincent always thought it was a missed opportunity not allowing the RSOs to specialize in geographical regions so that they could establish those critical language skills and law enforcement connections.
“Well, her mother died suddenly in a car accident, so she had to fly back for the funeral. Then, Tim’s wife went into labor a month early, so he had to be with her. Well, that meant we were down two RSOs. Normally, I wouldn’t have needed to stay, but with the tensions as high as they are with the elections back home, the Ambassador wanted me here,” Orlando replied, a bit glum.
“That’s really too bad, Orlando. Why is the Ambassador concerned about the election? From everything in the polls, it looks like a lock that the former Secretary of State is going to win.” As Vincent was talking, he placed some cabbage, carrots, and a few other veggies in a bowl before handing it to the grill cook to stir fry up for him. He loved stir fry day at the cafeteria. He especially liked the hot spicy garlic sauce they added to everything.
Orlando reached out and grabbed his steaming hot plate of food from the cook before responding. “There has been a lot of hacking activity going on in the US and Europe. Most of it has been coming from Russia. But that latest batch of Wikileaks documents shows some connection to a Chinese State-run organization. The FBI has been investigating it, and so has our office. I’ll just be glad when the election is over with and we can all go back to doing our jobs again,” Orlando said, rather perturbed that his vacation had been canceled. In his twelve years as an RSO, he had never had his time off canceled by an Ambassador. Then again, there had never been a concerted effort by foreign actors to try and influence the US elections to this degree.
As the two men paid for their lunch, Orlando signaled for Vincent to join him at a quiet table along the wall of the room.
As Orlando had finished a bite of food, he leaned forward and spoke softly. “Vincent, I have a question for you. What do you know about Chinese government involvement in Mongolia?”
That was kind of an odd question. China had always had some government involvement in Mongolia. “Well, that’s interesting that you bring it up. Recently, we’ve seen a lot of interest from the Chinese security service in Mongolia. What are you thinking, Orlando?” Vincent inquired, trying to dig a bit deeper at his meaning.
“Well, there have been some issues there lately. A friend of mine owns a private equity firm in Mongolia, so he provides me with a lot of good insight into the happenings. As you know, Rio Tinto has that $7 billion copper mine under construction. They also have a new uranium mine under construction that has caught the Chinese interest.”
Vincent nodded. Orlando paused long enough to take another bite of his lunch before continuing, “Most of the labor for the mines comes from China. However, over the last two years, there has been a lot of tension between Chinese and Mongolian workers. While Mongolia needs the Chinese laborers, there has been a deep-seated resentment and distrust between the two factions. The Mongolians believe the Chinese are trying to assimilate Mongolia into China by flooding the country with its own citizens.”
“Do you think there is any truth to that rumor?” asked Vincent.
After shoving another bite into his mouth, Orlando answered, “Well, Mongolia has roughly three million people. Yet there are five million Chinese workers living in Mongolia, and another six hundred thousand non-Asian expatriates. In just the last six months, there have been a dozen attacks against Chinese workers. While it is not one hundred percent known if all the attackers have been Mongols, the rise of violence between Chinese and Mongols has been increasing significantly. Have you heard of any intentions by the Chinese government towards Mongolia? I mean, I know it’s kind of a broad question I’m asking, but any little bit would help,” Orlando asserted.
Vincent took a long drink from his water, giving him time to think for a second before responding. “I will admit, I was not aware of some of those situations happening-though it does make sense why there has been an increase in the number of security service interactions with the Mongolians. I know there are a lot of mining interests in Mongolia, and the Chinese covet the fertile farmlands as well.” He paused for a second to consider something else. “For centuries, China has considered Mongolia to be a part of Greater China, but they also think that of most of Siberia and Southeast Asia. Look, I have a meeting with my counterpart next week; I will make a note to ask them about Mongolia and get back to you,” replied Vincent while pulling out his smartphone to make a quick note.
Once he finished typing, Vincent leaned forward. “Orlando, perhaps you can help me with a similar question. For decades, China has been buying large quantities of rice from Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, but I’ve noticed that it tapered off about two years ago. Do you happen to know if there is a diplomatic row between these countries and China?” Vincent inquired.
Orlando sat back in his chair, raising his left eyebrow in surprise at the question. “Surely you remember the dispute between the two countries over the Paracel and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea-those large oil and natural gas findings… then there was that situation with the oil rigs in the Gulf of Tonkin.”
Vietnam had discovered pockets of oil and natural gas that showed great promise. The resources were clearly in Vietnamese-controlled areas, but the Chinese had swooped in to claim territorial rights over them. Vietnam then took China to court over the dispute with the World Trade Organization, which ultimately sided with Vietnam. China, however, refused to recognize the verdict and severed trade relations with Vietnam.
Vincent snickered before responding, “Man, you sure know how to make a guy feel like an idiot. Remember, I’m new to the political officer side of the house. I was an econ guy for most of my career.” Orlando smiled. “I don’t know how I had forgotten that. I’ve been trying to figure out this food shortage problem that started about two years ago. The tonnage of food being imported in had not changed, but the volume of tonnage consumed had. I had overlooked the rice deal China and Vietnam used to have. I owe you a beer for helping me solve a problem that was right in front of me.” Vincent laughed at how stupid his question sounded now.