“OK, HOLMES? What’s the highest probability scenario you are working on the Russian invasion of Saint Lawrence.”
“I currently have a scenario with 83 % probability Carl,” the voice said.
“HOLMES, describe that scenario, parse, ultra-brief summaries until further notice please.”
“Yes Carl. The Russian government plans to create the pretext for a nuclear attack on the United States of America which will result in assured mutual destruction, massive radiation fallout, climate change and potential human extinction,” the voice said calmly.
Devlin felt the hairs rise on her neck, but Williams just sighed.
“OK HOLMES, let’s just assume for now that isn’t their plan — what is the second highest rated probability?”
“The Russian government is trying to create international sympathy for its next move, which is likely to be an invasion of the United States mainland.”
“Supplement. Supporting evidence?” Williams asked, ignoring the shocked look on Devlin’s face.
“In the two weeks prior to the invasion of Saint Lawrence Island, Russian military command ordered the following elements of the Eastern Military District to high readiness: the 29th Army, the 5th Red Banner Army and the 36th Army, totaling 120,00 troops. Ordered to active combat duty was the 3rd Air and Air Defense Forces Command and the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade which was the unit that conducted the initial ground operation on Saint Lawrence. Further Special Forces units ordered to active combat duty but not yet deployed include the 24th Spetsnaz Brigade, the 11th and 83rd Airborne Brigades. Do you want me to continue?”
“Yes.”
“In the Russian Central Command, the following units were also activated. The Yekaterina Communications Brigade, 3rd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, 31st Guards Airborne Brigade and the 14th Air and Air Defense Forces Army.”
“Uh, HOLMES? How do these ‘activations’ support your hypothesis of a ground invasion of mainland America?” Devlin asked.
“In the last two years the 3rd Air and Air Defense Forces Command has been built up significantly and almost exclusively with squadrons and pilots returning from the Middle East and it now comprises the most combat-hardened air force unit in Russia. It is a composite force of fighters, ground attack, airborne refueling, command and control, electronic warfare, transport and close air support rotary winged aircraft. It would be ideally suited to the task of achieving air supremacy over a battlefront, while the air army of Central Command filled in for its continental duties. Continue?”
“Yes please.”
“The ground units ordered to active combat duty in the Eastern Military District are too numerous for the occupation of Saint Lawrence alone and are almost exclusively rapid deployment units: Spetsnaz and airborne troops. These are the forces that would be used in the initial phase of an invasion to quickly eliminate threats and secure high-value targets…”
“Stop HOLMES,” Williams said. He had a pencil twirling between his fingers and tapped it on his teeth. “HOLMES have you seen any evidence of major ground forces of battalion strength or greater being brought to readiness?”
“No Carl.”
“Supplement. Wouldn’t that be necessary if Russia intended a full-scale invasion of the US mainland?”
“Yes Carl. In 2019 the US Army War College in Carlisle Pennsylvania wargamed a major conventional war in Europe between Russian and NATO forces. Russia initially made significant gains in Eastern Europe before the intervention of US forces on the Western Front. ‘Russian’ commanders then decided to try to alleviate the US pressure by attacking the USA through Alaska in order to threaten the major population centers of the US northeast. The Alaska invasion required the initial commitment of 80-100,000 Eastern District ground troops and if successful would have required up to 620,000 troops.”
“It wasn’t successful,” Williams guessed.
“No. However Russian airborne forces nullified and captured the key US Air Force bases at Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, and Eielson in Fairbanks, as well as the port of Anchorage, and used them to land ground forces via an air and sea bridge. From there, they attacked through Canada, reaching Vancouver, where they paused to consolidate before attacking Seattle. Two US carrier task force groups were deployed and together with attack submarines began interdiction of Russian sea and air supply lines across the Bering Sea and Alaskan airspace. A Russian attempt to land troops of its 35th Army in Anchorage by sea through the Aleutian Islands was intercepted by the US Pacific Fleet. US ground forces attacked Russian forces in Vancouver from the south and then Canadian and US ground forces attacked their eastern flank through the Canadian Yukon Territory, recapturing Fairbanks and Anchorage and causing the Russian attack to collapse. The total irrecoverable personnel losses of the Soviet Armed Forces, frontier, and internal security troops in the US came to 14,453. Soviet Army formations, units, and HQ elements lost 13,833, FSB security service subunits lost 572, MVD formations lost 28, and other ministries and departments lost 20 men. US and Canadian losses were however double these numbers.”
“A full-scale invasion makes no sense,” Devlin said to Williams. “They couldn’t invade the USA with a few brigades of special forces troops, no matter how powerful their air force.”
“HOLMES, thoughts?”
“I concur with the Ambassador. But my scenario does not consider that Russia intends a full-scale invasion of the USA,” HOLMES said.
“What then?”
“In this scenario, the forces assembled are too numerous for Saint Lawrence Island to be the main objective. However they may be sufficient to take and hold Alaska.”
“Thanks HOLMES, let us think about this,” Williams said. “Stand by.”
Devlin reached for her coffee cup, “No wonder that bastard Kelnikov looked so smug when I accused him of designs on Saint Lawrence. If your silicon friend is right, I couldn’t have been further from the mark.” She sipped. “I accused him of a border skirmish. But, Alaska?”
“I know, right? They have a billion acres of unoccupied land in Siberia they could build on if they were looking for icy wasteland real estate, so it isn’t living space they’re after. HOLMES, list the main natural resources of Alaska.”
“Yes Carl. Alaska has commercially developed or potentially viable deposits of oil, copper, silver, mercury, gold, tin, coal, iron ore, borax, chromite, antimony, tungsten, nickel, molybdenum, sand, gravel, and limestone,” the British voice intoned.
“Supplement. Does Russia have significant shortages of any of these resources?” Williams asked.
“No Carl. Russia is either an exporter or is self-sufficient in all of these resources.”
Williams dropped his pencil on his desk, “Nah. This scenario doesn’t make sense HOLMES. Russia needs a reason to want to mount a ground invasion of Alaska. You’ve got all the other pieces, but you’re missing motive my man.”
“Thank you Carl. I will weight motive higher in future analyses,” HOLMES said. Devlin couldn’t help smiling, despite how she felt. The voice of the great detective sounded distinctly miffed.
“HOLMES, continue speculative analysis with full focus on the broader implications of the Russian Saint Lawrence operation please, disregard all other tasking,” Williams said. “Find me a motive, HOLMES.”
“Yes Carl.”
Williams reached out and pulled the lid of his laptop down.
“He’s annoyed,” Carl said. “That is programmed. It forces him to revisit all of his analyses and broaden his search for data to support high probability scenarios.”
Devlin stood. She had called in a report of her conversation with Kelnikov but still had to write it up, and include some of what Williams and his silicon sidekick had shared with her. She sat down again.