He groaned, reaching an arm up from the mattress on the floor and batting the spacebar on his laptop. “Yes, what?”
“The time is 0100 hours,” HOLMES announced. “I have a military sitrep for you.”
“Go ahead,” Williams said, rubbing his eyes. He could have HOLMES copy it to NSA, and the Ambassador if it was material. He’d probably insist on doing so anyway. HOLMES was still trying to get back into her good books after the Bondarev thing.
“Satellite, electronic and human source reporting from Saint Lawrence indicates that further elements of the Russian 3rd Air and Air Defense Forces Command have moved into Savoonga. The aircraft based there include both piloted and unmanned aircraft. DoD analysts conclude this has been done to extend their flight time over the southeastern area of operations.”
“They’ve got Alaska pretty much to themselves then,” Williams observed.
“I have seen no reports of anything except reconnaissance flights from US mainland bases in the last 24 hours,” HOLMES confirmed. “However, there is a Navy covert air unit which has conducted two successful strikes on Russian mainland facilities in the last three days.”
“What covert air unit?” Williams asked, his ears pricking.
“I only have the code name,” HOLMES replied. “Its designation is NCTAMS-A4. I am unable to find any other information about this unit. But I can confirm that three days ago it carried out a strike on Russian military targets at Anadyr which caused significant damage including the incapacitation of a drone squadron of the Russian 6983rd Air Defense Brigade. I have just picked up a report from ANR NORAD that about 30 minutes ago, the same unit apparently struck a Russian supply depot at Lavrentiya. Damage assessment has not yet been conducted, and I have no details yet on the fate of the attacking Navy aircraft.”
“Get some, Navy!” Williams said, punching a fist in the air. “I’m guessing those Russian planes at Savoonga are going to be next on their Christmas list.”
“That may be planned but is unlikely to be effected,” HOLMES said. “I believe a US Columbia Class nuclear submarine has been ordered to a position off the coast of the Kuril Islands.”
“Believe? Expand.”
“I have used comms traffic pattern analysis to isolate transmissions to and from Pacific Fleet nuclear submarines and identified two signals I believe indicate a boat is moving toward the Kurils.”
“Columbia class subs carry long-range hypersonic cruise missiles right?” Williams said. He could imagine tempers in Washington getting short — they might want to send a high explosive ultimatum towards one or more Russian military targets.
“Yes. I have indications that other US nuclear submarines have also been ordered to readiness, although their posture appears more defensive than offensive. I have assigned a 78 % probability to a tactical nuclear attack using hypersonic cruise missiles on a Russian military target by the nuclear submarine located off the Kurils.” Williams was not sure he heard right.
“A nuke?!”
“Yes. I have a conventional weapons attack with subsonic cruise missiles or ballistic missiles at 54 % probability.”
“What…. what target?” Williams said in a strangled voice.
“Repeat your question please Carl.”
“Assume this is a political attack, not an attempt to start an all-out nuclear war. Assume the submarine is only going to target a single Russian base, or location. What are the likely targets for a submarine-based off the Kurils?” He had to believe that whatever this was, it was intended as a ‘shot across the bow’. He couldn’t believe his own country wanted to trigger Armageddon. Not over Alaska.
But then he realized, he was hoping exactly what the Russian planners were hoping, and hope was not a sound military strategy.
“Weighted for combined geopolitical and military impact — Iturup anti-ship missile facility 91 % probability, Matua Northern Fleet Replenishment Facility 73 %. I also calculate a probability of 34 % that the warhead will be detonated over a remote area in the Northern Pacific, however this probability is low due to the limited military value of such an act.”
Williams swore. He was shaken to his core. He had grown up in a world where the use of nuclear weapons in conflict was simply inconceivable. It hadn’t happened since 1945. Sure, the world had come close to calamity a few times — the Cuban missile crisis, the Russian submarine malfunction, a US strategic bomber shot down by its own escort when it received a nuclear launch order by mistake. There were probably other events he didn’t know about, but they were all accidents. Even in the heat of the proxy wars in the Middle East, when US-backed Turkish forces were being forced back out of Syria, nuclear weapons had never been considered.
But the world had let itself become complacent. Nuclear arms reduction treaties had lapsed and not been renegotiated. Politicians had more focus on the dangers posed by new technologies — hypersonic missiles, cyber warfare, AI systems, unmanned combat vehicles — and had all but forgotten about the first doomsday weapons. The number of nations with nukes had proliferated uncontrollably because no nation was willing to go to war over them before it was too late. North Korea had been the first example, then Iran and Saudi Arabia. Afraid of being left in the cold by weakening US commitment, Taiwan joined the nuclear arms club. And after the bruising it took at the hands of Russia and Syria, Williams had seen reports that Turkey was now starting its own underground weapons program, with the US turning a blind eye.
“Assume a hypersonic cruise missile strike. Have you run the numbers on how soon the sub will be within launch range?”
“No Carl. Exact nuclear submarine location data is inaccessible even to me. But priority tasking orders are rarely issued more than 24 hours in advance.”
“So it’s going to happen today?” Carl whispered, still not believing it.
“There is still a 22 % probability my analysis is wrong,” HOLMES said. “It requires that I assign motive and intent to numerous human actors on both sides, but I have calibrated for the recklessness of past strategic decisions and I believe, weighted the role of the US President appropriately.”
Williams knew what HOLMES was saying, even if he didn’t mean to say it. The current US President was a cowboy, in many senses of the word. Short in stature, short on temperament, inclined to shoot first and think later. If he had enough support in DC and the Pentagon…
He thought fast, “Copy your analysis to NSA,” Williams said. “If you have been able to identify a possible nuclear submarine launch by analyzing signals traffic, Russia or China could have too. And copy the report to the Ambassador. She might be able to do something to calm down the hawks in Washington.”
As much as it terrified him, it made a dark kind of sense. The US had been pushed ignominiously out of its own territory. Its most powerful supercarrier crippled by cyber-sabotage and its other carrier groups were out of position. It could fight a conventional war that would cost tens of thousands of lives, or it could threaten nuclear retaliation. And potentially cost millions of lives.
An idea came to him.
“HOLMES,” Williams said. “I have a new priority-A task for you. Find all possible contact details for Yevgeny Bondarev; landline, cell phone, sat phone, encrypted chat, Savoonga bloody post office, whatever you can pull down.” He had to stop his voice from shaking, as the reality of what was about to happen starting building inside him. “Send everything you can find to the Ambassador’s cell phone and mine.”
“Yes Carl.”
“OK, keep updating your data on those subs and send that report. You can log off for now. No, wait!” He said, suddenly remembering something. It had been niggling at him. Not an important thing, just a question he’d meant to ask. “HOLMES, about the Russian forces at Savoonga… you said you had seen human source reporting?”