“Ukraine, on the other hand, is murkier. Russia is launching a broad assault across the entire length of Ukraine’s eastern border. Whether the Russians intend to annex a portion of Ukraine or control the entire country is unclear. Once all twenty-four brigades reach Ukraine and Russia begins its push farther into the country, we’ll get a better idea of their intentions.
“Which gets me to an important and perhaps critical flaw in Russia’s plan. The invasion was sudden, without the usual buildup at the border before an invasion, which helps and hurts us. It hurts us because Russia got a head start on Ukraine and NATO. However, by not massing troops at the border ahead of time, their invasion is piecemeal, with only six brigades currently inside Ukraine. The lead units have seized the key transportation hubs just across the border and appear to be waiting for the remaining Russian units before beginning a coordinated push westward. This gives Ukraine a fighting chance; not to defeat Russia, but to hold out long enough for NATO to intercede should it choose to do so.
“This brings me to the crux of the issue,” McVeigh said. “Lithuania and Ukraine cannot repel Russia without NATO assistance. Lithuania has only a few thousand combat troops, barely more than a brigade, compared to eight Russian brigades they’ll be facing. Ukraine is in a much better position with twenty-two brigades, but their training and equipment is significantly inferior to Russia’s. Still, there’s hope they can hold off Russia long enough for NATO to provide assistance.”
“What do we have at our disposal?” the president asked.
McVeigh answered, “For immediate response, there’s NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, deployable within twenty-four hours. However, it’s a single brigade of only five thousand troops. It’s a component of the NATO Response Force, with another thirty-five thousand troops, deployable in five to seven days. But even if NATO agrees to assist Ukraine, forty thousand troops won’t be enough. They’ll buy time, but forcing Russia from Ukraine will require the mobilization of additional NATO troops; it could take weeks or even months before the troops and equipment arrive in Ukraine.”
The president replied, “Let’s cross each bridge when we get there. The priority right now is to obtain NATO authorization to assist Lithuania and Ukraine. If NATO doesn’t agree to assist Ukraine, we’ll build a coalition of our own.”
“I take it your mind is already made up?” McVeigh asked. “We’re going to help Ukraine, with or without NATO?”
“Damn right,” the president replied. “There’s no way we can stand by and do nothing. We took the Neville Chamberlain approach when Russia annexed Crimea, choosing appeasement rather than war, and it emboldened Russia. We have to draw the line somewhere, and this is it.”
Turning to Dawn, the president asked his secretary of state, “How soon can we expect a NATO decision?”
Dawn replied, “An emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council will occur within the hour, but there is zero chance the council representatives will have authorization to commit NATO to a full-blown war with Russia. That’s going to take a meeting with the heads of state from all twenty-eight nations. The best we can hope for is that the council will order the mobilization of all NATO assets today, and the heads of state will meet tomorrow. I’ll keep you informed as I learn more, but you should plan to travel to Brussels later today.”
The president nodded his understanding, then wrapped up the meeting. “We’ve got a lot of work ahead of us, on both the diplomatic and military fronts. We’ll sort out the details of our military response once the political landscape becomes clear.”
36
CASTEAU, BELGIUM
Five levels underground in a hardened bunker, General Andy Wheeler stood at the back of the NATO command center, examining the video screens mounted on the front wall. Located just north of Mons, SHAPE — Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe — was the headquarters of NATO’s Allied Command Operations. As the commander of NATO’s military force, General Wheeler was referred to as SACEUR, Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
The lighting in the command center was dim so personnel could more readily study the video screens, each displaying a different section of Europe. The maps were annotated with symbols of varying colors and designs, each representing a NATO, Ukrainian, or Russian combat unit — armor, mechanized infantry, artillery, and air defense, to name a few.
As the first day of Russia’s invasions of Lithuania and Ukraine drew to a close, the fighting thus far had been sporadic. Lithuania was quiet, with the country’s government wisely deciding it was futile to send its four thousand combat-ready troops against forty thousand Russians who had taken position along the fifty-mile-wide corridor on the country’s southern border.
In Ukraine, fighting had been limited to Ukrainian units engaging the lead Russian brigades, which seemed content with consolidating their early gains into the country while they awaited additional Russian units. As night fell across the continent, Russia thus far had amassed fourteen brigades inside Ukraine, controlling the key transportation hubs along the eastern border. Another ten units were still en route, bringing Russian forces invading Ukraine to twenty-four brigades: five tank and nineteen mechanized infantry units. Ukrainian units were likewise rushing to the front, with all twenty-two brigades already across the Dnieper River and into the eastern third of Ukraine. The war thus far had been mostly a race to the start line.
By daybreak, the battle lines would be clearly formed and Wheeler was certain Russia’s main offensive would begin. Whether Ukraine would withstand the assault long enough for NATO or a U.S.-led coalition to assist was unknown. A meeting of the North Atlantic Council, with all heads of state attending, had been scheduled for 8 a.m. the next morning, with most of the NATO heads of state already in Brussels and the last few on the way. If NATO was going to assist Ukraine, they needed to commit in the morning.
Wheeler examined a video screen at the front of the command center, displaying a map of Eastern Europe, studying the red symbols representing Russian combat units amassing in Lithuania and eastern Ukraine. He found it odd that Russia’s two premier forces were missing from the map. Russia had several brigades of Spetsnaz scattered throughout their military and intelligence organizations, along with numerous airborne units, the most well-trained and — equipped units in the Russian military aside from Spetsnaz. Airborne and Spetsnaz had been the first to be employed in recent Russian conflicts, including the wars in Chechnya and Georgia, but they were absent thus far from the current conflict.
Where the hell were they?
37
NOVAJA HUTA, BELARUS
As day transitioned to night, an orange-purple glow on the horizon greeted Belarusian Army Colonel Edward Aymar as he stood in the hatch of his T-72 main battle tank, idling at the edge of the forest only a kilometer from the Ukrainian border. He pulled the binoculars to his eyes and surveyed the countryside, the dense trees giving way in the dusk to rolling meadows blanketed by a layer of light evening fog. In the still air, his company of tanks produced a low rumble in the otherwise quiet forest.
Behind him, in the trees east of highway E95, were the other tanks and infantry fighting vehicles of the 120th Guards Mechanized Brigade, and behind them, also hidden in the dense forest, were another three brigades. To the southwest, the 6th Guards Mechanized Brigade would lead four brigades into Ukraine near Pustynky, while the 11th Guards Mechanized Brigade would lead another four brigades south from Rayffayzen.