The Italian prime minister joined the discussion. “Russian troop deployment in Lithuania already equals NATO’s rapid response force. We’ll have to mobilize additional forces for this effort, both across the continent and from North America. This will take time, during which Russia will consolidate its position in Ukraine and redeploy additional troops to Lithuania. Considering the number of Russian troops we’ll be facing and Russia’s formidable air defense and land attack missile systems, the cost will be extremely high. We must ask ourselves, is war with Russia, which could escalate into the use of tactical nuclear weapons, worth a few square kilometers of sparsely populated countryside?”
The British prime minister interjected, “We are discussing a policy of appeasement, which will fail just as it did before World War Two. Have we not learned from our mistakes? In the words of George Santayana, ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.’” He pulled a sheet of paper from his suit pocket, which he unfolded on the table. “Let me read to you the words of Winston Churchilclass="underline"
When the situation was manageable it was neglected, and now that it is thoroughly out of hand we apply too late the remedies which then might have effected a cure.… Unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong — these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history.”
Looking up, the prime minister said, “I agree with the American president. War with Russia is inevitable. We can either act now, when we can control the time and location of the conflict, or wait and let Russia dictate those terms.”
Upon the conclusion of the prime minister’s comments, the discussions around the conference room table degraded into individual debates. After a few moments, an aide approached the secretary-general, whispering in his ear. When the aide finished speaking, Johan Van der Bie pounded his gavel on the strike plate.
The conversations faded and Van der Bie announced, “President Kalinin wishes to address our Alliance. If no one objects, I’ll put him on-screen.”
After no objections were voiced, the secretary-general nodded to his aide.
The displays lining the circumference of the conference room energized and President Kalinin appeared, sitting behind his desk with the Russian Federation flag displayed behind him. The president of the United States listened to the English translation from his earpiece as Kalinin began.
“Thank you for the opportunity to address your Alliance. I understand your apprehension over recent actions by my government, and I want to assuage your concerns. I will address Lithuania first, then Ukraine.
“Our desire in Lithuania is modest: a small strip of land only eighty kilometers wide, which will be incorporated into Kaliningrad Oblast. I regret using force to obtain this land, but Russia will no longer tolerate the constraints of foreign governments, preventing the transit of Russian citizens and military units between two regions of my country. Our annexation of this land is non-negotiable. However, I realize we cannot take this land without suitable compensation. We will begin formal discussions with Lithuania and craft a proposal acceptable to both countries.
“Ukraine might appear to be a more serious issue, but I assure you it is not. Once the safety of ethnic Russians can be ensured by local governments, all Russian troops will be withdrawn. The only contentious issue, perhaps, is that while the overbearing hand of the Ukrainian government is removed from eastern Ukraine, each oblast will be given the opportunity to choose its future. Referendums will be held, allowing each oblast to choose to remain part of Ukraine, become independent, or join Russia. My country will abide by the results, and you have my assurance that all Russian troops will then be withdrawn.
“I want to express, in the clearest terms, that Russia does not desire war with NATO. However, if you are entertaining the thought of intervening, I offer you this to consider. If attacked, Russia will terminate the delivery of all oil and natural gas to NATO members. Additionally, over the last week, Russian Spetsnaz units have attached explosives to every major oil and natural gas pipeline supplying Western Europe and the United States. Finally, as I speak, the Russian Northern and Pacific Fleets are taking station at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. If any NATO country attacks Russia or imposes economic sanctions, I will give the order to destroy these critical pipelines and sink all oil and natural gas tankers supplying Western Europe or the United States. Eighty percent of Western Europe’s natural resources will be cut off, and your economies will crumble.
“These are only precautionary measures, however. I wish no harm to your countries. I simply request you not interfere with the security actions I have taken in Lithuania and Ukraine.” The Russian president finished with, “Thank you for your time.”
Silence gripped the room as Kalinin’s image faded from the displays. After a long, tense moment, the meeting descended into chaos as country leaders discussed Kalinin’s remarks, with some of the conversations becoming heated.
The secretary-general gaveled the meeting to order, pounding the wooden strike plate repeatedly until silence returned. “I can see we won’t be ready to vote today,” he said. “Considering the new information President Kalinin provided, additional evaluation will be required. A time frame for consensus will be established for the proposals authorizing military force to liberate Lithuania and Ukraine from Russian forces. I am invoking the silence procedure. Any country that objects to either proposal must do so in writing by the stipulated date.”
With another thud of his gavel, Secretary-General Van der Bie adjourned the meeting.
As the president of the United States pushed back from the table, there were two things he was convinced of. The first was that under the given circumstances, NATO would not come to the assistance of Lithuania or Ukraine. The second was that the United States needed to modify the given circumstances, removing Russia’s energy choke hold on the West.
Striding into the lobby, he was joined by McVeigh, Dawn, and Christine. He turned to his subordinates. “Determine exactly what Russia has done, and devise a plan to destroy Kalinin’s choke hold.”
MAP
43
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Less than a day after departing Brussels, Christine was seated at the Situation Room conference table between Hardison and Colonel DuBose, with McVeigh and Dawn opposite them. The president, sitting at the head of the table, listened as McVeigh delivered an update.
“Russia’s Northern and Pacific Fleets are stationed in the Gulf of Oman, where they can block the entrance to the Persian Gulf if desired. However, two Russian fleets aren’t as formidable as it sounds, at least when it comes to surface combatants. Russia has only nineteen in the gulf: one aircraft carrier, three cruisers, thirteen destroyers, and two corvettes. Not exactly quake-in-your-boots forces, considering we should be able to muster four carrier strike groups comprising four aircraft carriers and forty cruisers and destroyers in opposition. We have two problems, however.
“The first is that Russia has apparently struck a deal with the Iranians, allowing the deployment of Russian military units inside their country. Over a hundred Russian missile batteries are being positioned along the north shore of the Gulf of Oman, which will eliminate our surface combatant advantage and threaten our aircraft once launched. Additionally, several Russian tactical fighter squadrons, totaling over four hundred aircraft, have been deployed to Iranian air bases. With the additional missile batteries and fighter aircraft, they’ve leveled the playing field against four carrier strike groups.