The summons was issued and Beria slipped back into his seat as Stalin beckoned Zhukov to a chair by his side, the three sat together almost as judges in a court, a sight which caused Nazarbayeva a moment’s pause as she entered.
Stalin, strangely affable, motioned the GRU officer forward with his pipe.
“Comrade PodPolkovnik. I understand from Comrade Marshall Zhukov that you are already acquainted?”
“Yes Comrade General Secretary, that is correct.”
“Excellent. Formalities over. Please begin.”
“GRU sources in London inform us that the British will shortly be able to field a new force of a minimum of four full Infantry and one tank division formed from men who were, until recently, prisoners of the Germans. They can also rejuvenate existing divisions by bringing units up to full strength.”
This was not news to anybody in the room and had been anticipated.
“Our information is that in basic infantry terms the British will profit from the fact that they made few technological advances during their war years, and so we should expect the new formations to be as effective as their existing ones are proving.”
Zhukov could understand that, and an almost imperceptible nod gave Nazarbayeva encouragement.
“Unless the British use older vehicles, the new tank division will probably not be ready for deployment for some time to come. We cannot assess that precisely.”
Neither had the NKVD report Beria had submitted some hours before.
Nazarbayeva moved immediately into a thorny area.
“Comrade General Secretary, we have uncovered a problem. RAF losses, indeed allied air losses in general, are not as reported.”
A moment’s pause as the information was absorbed.
“Go on, Comrade,” Stalin’s voice bereft of its usual cutting edge for once.
“A GRU officer gained valuable paper intelligence from an RAF base the army overran, and we have compared that to our own air force’s claims. Allied losses were actually just over half of what was being submitted in our Regiment’s reports.”
Zhukov replaced his tea cup and spoke bluntly.
“An isolated case, Comrade?”
The GRU officer shook her head as she spoke.
“Unfortunately not, Comrade Marshall. Once this came to light, I ordered a further examination of captured enemy air force records and compared them with our own stated claims. From memory, the best case was a claim of ten, when the real number was eight shot down. On one occasion, a regimental commander claimed ten enemy aircraft destroyed when the RAF record clearly states solely one loss due to air combat.”
Pausing for a moment, Nazarbayeva delivered a killer line.
“There were no instances when our claims were equal or less than recorded allied losses, Comrade General Secretary.”
Zhukov remained silent, absorbing what he had just been told. Beria remained silent as his report had made no mention of this possibility whatsoever.
Stalin spoke first.
“Propaganda, Comrade Colonel?”
Zhukov was impressed. Many officers would hedge their bets at this point but not this one, the reply bold, clear and unequivocal.
“No Comrade General Secretary. These are Squadron and, in one case, Wing records. These would be a true reflection of events. To do otherwise would be lunacy.”
Zhukov took the lead, although he suspected he knew the answer to his question.
“So, if that is true, what does GRU think is the present status of the Allied air forces?”
“Comrade Marshall, intelligence has seen a marked reduction in enemy air activities over the course of the campaign. I believe we have allowed ourselves to ally this reduction with the figures our air regiments have quoted for their losses, rather than think through the whole situation.”
A soft cough and Nazarbayeva ploughed onwards.
“Our attacks on the 6th caught them by surprise, and we caused great casualties, as well as inflicting damage to facilities. Clearly the effectiveness of the allied air forces dropped. However, I believe we have overstated the casualty effect and underestimated the disruption effect. They are sorting out their logistics and organisation, and I believe that this is why we are now seeing an increase in the tempo of their air operations, combined with new units arriving almost daily.”
Selecting a single page document, Nazarbayeva produced three copies, handing over her own to Zhukov and proceeding from memory.
“Comrade General Secretary, these figures were received an hour before I left Headquarters. On the left-hand column you will see estimates of enemy air strength based upon claims from our Regiments. On the right you will see the figures supplied by a GRU agent within the RAF.”
The figures were, if true, a disaster in the making.
“We have claimed that in air and ground combat over 50% of the enemy aircraft available on 6th August have been destroyed, and that reinforcements have been slow in arriving, boosting that overall figure to no more than 55% remaining.”
Zhukov was only barely listening as the figures were in his hand and screaming at him.
“The reality is that their air force is presently between 75-80% of 6th August figures. It is important to remember that this figure also includes large numbers of heavy bombers, so the equation between fighters, fighter-bombers and light to medium bombers is more favourable than it would otherwise have been.”
No-one there failed to understand that these figures were disastrous, if true.
“And your source, Comrade PodPolkovnik? How accurate are these figures? Could your agent be playing games for both sides here?”
Beria leant back again, observing that his questions had given the woman a moment’s pause.
“This agent provided us with accurate information throughout the German war. He is well placed and trusted. More importantly, he is an ideological agent and does what he does because he believes in our common cause. If he were compromised, I am certain he would use the appropriate code and inform us.”
No give at all in her position. Zhukov, whilst pained by the revelations, could not help but be impressed by Nazarbayeva’s straight-forward delivery. At the same time, there was a dangerous naivety to her approach.
Stalin made his directions.
“One for you, Comrade Marshall,” gesturing at Beria, “Get your men out to the air regiments and ensure that we get the right information in future. Punish anyone who has been in error.”
He raised his hand to cut off Zhukov’s objection, and paused for a moment. Softly and in acknowledgement of the Marshall’s unspoken protest, he continued.
“Only those who have been grossly in error, Lavrentiy. We have lost too many experienced commanders already. Shoot only those who have deliberately lied to us.”
Only Zhukov and Nazarbayeva wondered how many would die by that order this very night.
“Continue, Comrade, continue.”
Acknowledging her leader with a nod, Nazarbayeva moved into the next area.
“The Spanish are having some difficulties in organising the Blue Division, and the independent brigade. It seems they will not be ready for some time. Most estimates give them two weeks before crossing the border, although one of our agents within the division itself believes they could still march within a week.”
Without any degree of triumph, Nazarbayeva continued.
“GRU predictions were correct, and we understand that over 180,000 ex-German and Italian small arms have been provided to the Spanish Army, complete with ammunition, as well as a large number of captured artillery pieces and vehicles. Also we can confirm that thirty-seven German tanks crossed into Spain during the Patriotic War, but we are presently unable to confirm types.”
Beria examined the woman for signs of gloating at his discomfort, but could see none.