The room erupted with surprise and chaos. Pierce let it burn on for a few moments until they were ready to hear more, then continued. “Well, I see you fly-boys and fly-girls are keeping up with world events. Yes, as you children were sleeping, thinking you were safe and sound, it appears that Russia tried to launch a number of conventionally armed cruise missiles from Bear bombers. Likely targets were air bases in the Ukraine and possibly in Romania.”
“Who stopped them?” someone asked. “What happened?”
“The Ukrainian Air Force, such as it is, jumped them in MiG-23s, shot down five, and got the other estimated twenty Bears to turn tail,” Pierce replied. “The whole thing lasted about three minutes. No cruise missiles were launched. A few more seconds, and at least one Ukrainian air base would’ve been history. Four Ukrainian fighters were shot down by Russian fighter escorts.
“As you all remember from my briefings in the past, the Russians living in the Dniester region of central Moldova, including the cities of Bendery and Tiraspol, and assisted by units of the former Red Army’s Fourteenth Motorized Rifle Division in Kishinev and the Twenty-eighth Motorized Rifle Division headquarters in Malayeshty, declared themselves independent when the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic split from the USSR and declared its independence back in 1991. Although the Russians are a minority in Moldova, they comprise most of the inhabitants of this particular region, which is the industrial heart of Moldova and a major manufacturing and shipping center. Mother Russia has no direct access to the disputed Dniester region, except in accordance with the outlines of the Commonwealth of Independent States treaty between the former Soviet republics. The CIS treaty allows member nations to cross one another’s borders in times of emergency. Russia has been stretching this definition to the very limit, thanks to their wonderful President, Vitaly Velichko.”
Pierce pointed to the ONC chart and went on. “As you can see, Moldova is surrounded on three sides by the Ukraine and on one side by Romania. Moldova was once a province of Romania.
“This situation obviously stresses out the Russians still living in Moldova because they believe they would become a persecuted people, so in August of 1991, just before Moldova itself declared its independence from the Soviet Union, the Russians in Dniester declared themselves independent from the Moldavian Soviet Republic and formed the Dniester Republic. They formed a militia soon afterward, comprised mostly of men and equipment from the Red Army Fourteenth and Twenty-eighth divisions. The Russians claimed that these two divisions had disbanded and had returned to Russia, but in fact they went underground in the Dniester Republic.
“Like most of the Republics, Moldova tried to annex all Soviet military bases within its borders except for strategic installations like bomber and intercontinental missile bases. They were not successful in Dniester. When the newly formed Moldovan Army tried to enforce the new law, Russian soldiers from Malayeshty resisted. When fighting broke out, the Russian military, contrary to orders from then-President Yeltsin, sent troops to the region to reinforce the militia in the two cities and beef up the Russian garrison.”
There was no reaction to any of this, so Pierce raised his voice and stepped closer to the crewmembers to get their attention. “But how, you may ask,” he shouted, causing one sleepy WSO to jump in his chair, “did they get troops into the Dniester area to help out their fellow Russians?”
“They bullied their way in,” someone responded.
“Exactly,” Pierce acknowledged. “In fact, Russian supply ships had sailed from the Black Sea Fleet ports near Sevastopol, into the Dnestr estuary, and up the Dnestr River to Bendery, and Russian naval aircraft also landed in Tiraspol’s airport — all this without consulting the Ukraine or requesting permission for access or overflight. This obviously ticked off the Moldovans, who accused the Ukrainians of duplicity, so Moldova sent troops to the Ukrainian border, which pissed off the Ukrainians. But the Russians also pissed off the Ukrainians because it was a violation of their sovereignty and a violation of Commonwealth of Independent States joint military agreements.”
“And the Ukraine was already pissed off at Russia about the Black Sea Fleet,” Furness chimed in, getting into the lively exchange. Pierce had a habit of turning these otherwise dull intel briefings into rather entertaining history-current affairs discussions. “Boy, it sounds like everyone’s pissed at everybody else.”
“Exactly, O curvaceous one,” Pierce said. The room erupted with a few chuckles. Pierce continued. “The disposition of the Black Sea Fleet, about 120 warships and about 300 combat aircraft, including 28 submarines, one aircraft carrier, and one vertical takeoff and landing cruiser, has been a major problem between the Ukraine and Russia since 1991. The original plan was to let Russia keep all the nuclear-capable aircraft and ships, then split the remaining ships equally between the two. But Russia claimed that all but 34 vessels, mostly mine warfare ships and small patrol corvettes, were nuclear-capable — Russia was going to cede only 17 patrol ships to the Ukraine and keep the other 86 ships for itself, as well as the bases on the Crimean Peninsula, which are some of the best pieces of real estate in all of Europe.
“Since 1991, the Ukraine and Russia have been tap-dancing around the issue. There were a few incidents — a Ukrainian crew mutinied and hijacked a frigate to Odessa, a few collisions and near-collisions between ships in the Black Sea, things like that — but negotiations were going along smoothly until the Dniester Republic conflict blew up. So, enough history. Let’s bring you up to date on what the hell’s going on over there.”
Pierce pointed to several large circles near Odessa and other towns near the Ukrainian-Moldavan border. “The Ukrainian president, Yuri Khotin, has been trying to gently defuse this entire situation and keep on a defensive stance only, but they’re getting pressure from the Ukrainian parliament to act. So recently the Ukraine set up an air defense battalion at the small airfield near Limanskoye, which is right on the border of the disputed region, armed with mostly older 100-millimeter antiaircraft artillery pieces and SA-3 surface-to-air missile units, in response to their warning to Russia to stop overflying their territory. The Russians simply circumnavigate the area. The weapons would not have been capable against the AS-4 cruise missiles, had those Bear bombers managed to launch them last night.
“Anyway, this low-key show of force hasn’t satisfied the Moldovans, who have been staging raids into the Ukraine, trying to blow up bridges, canal locks, port facilities, and communications towers to try to slow down the Russian resupply convoys to the Dniester Republic. Romania is actively resupplying the Moldovans with weapons, in preparation for an all-out war, and has mobilized its reserve forces and sent five divisions of troops to the Moldovan border. It is felt that Romania can seize the Dniester Republic in less than a week, but Russia has warned that a state of war will exist if Romania crosses an inch over the Moldovan border.
“Romania mobilized their active duty units to level-one readiness, and the ready reserves have been mobilized to level-two readiness as well — they could have a half a million men under arms by now, with another half million within six months. They ignored Russia’s warnings and sent about half of the Romanian armed forces — two tank divisions, four motorized rifle divisions, a few antitank and artillery brigades — from their bases in southern and eastern Romania, principally in the army bases in Iasi, Bacau, and Braila, into staging bases in western Moldova. Air patrols from Constanta air base in southeastern Romania, mostly MiG-29s, are patrolling the border round-the-clock, and Romanian MiG-27 bombers have been seen over the Black Sea with antiship weapons. All this obviously prompted the Russian air attack last night.