“If hostilities were to break out, Romanian airborne and ground forces would move in from Iasi, led by fighter and bomber units from Constanta. Air operations against the rebels in Bendery and Tiraspol could begin immediately. Four tank and motorized rifle divisions could be in Kishinev to relieve the Moldovan capital in a few days or less, and they could be engaging the rebel divisions soon after that. The Russian and Romanian ground units are fairly equal, considering their sophistication versus numbers. The Romanians can put a lot of air power up front fast, but if the Russian Air Force fully engages in Moldova, it’ll be over real quick.
“The Ukraine’s trying to stay cool, but their cool is slipping,” Pierce went on. “In response to the border incursions by Russia, Moldova, and Romania, the Ukraine deployed what they call a Special Action Detachment of approximately thirty thousand light infantry troops along the border, and light patrol boats now patrol the Dnestr River. They are looking for guerrilla forces and illegal cargoes, so they have stopped several Russian, Romanian, and Moldovan vessels, including Russian and Romanian warships. Romania has retaliated by seizing Ukrainian warships on the Black Sea, but that can’t last long because Romania’s navy is laughable, at best.”
Another map of Europe was put up on the overhead projector, this time one of Germany and Central Europe. “One other nonmilitary event is creating a lot of strain on military forces in the region, and that’s the refugee problem,” Pierce said. “Finland, Poland, Hungary, Slovenia and Ceska — what used to be Czechoslovakia — Romania, and the three Baltic states have taken in an estimated one million Russian refugees in the past five months. Many of these refugees are making their way into Germany and Austria, where antiforeigner sentiment is already at the flash point. Slovenia has closed its borders to Russian refugees, and Romania has imprisoned many of the male refugees over the age of fourteen as possible combatants or spies. Budapest and Warsaw are practically being overrun by starving refugees — their own economic situation wasn’t that good to begin with, without another extra quarter of a million hungry mouths added to it. And now the Russian government is threatening to punish any country that does not treat the Russian refugees with compassion.”
Fogelman commented, “Their economic policies and threat of war forces the Russian people to flee the cities, and then they warn other countries to be nice to them or else? What total buttholes.”
“The warning was primarily aimed at Romania, which has been virtually holding the refugees hostage as the Dniester crisis escalates,” Pierce pointed out. “But here’s something I know you haven’t seen in ‘Aviation Leak’ magazine yet.” Pierce put up a slide with some satellite photos of a large military air base, with very large aircraft lined up in exhaust-blacked parking spots. “Here’s what else the Russians are doing — this time in our own backyard. This is San Juan de los Baños military air base, south of Havana, the largest Soviet-built airfield in Cuba. Apparently in response to the so-called goodwill visit by the U.S. Navy into the Black Sea, Russia has sent Backfire bombers into Cuba again and based them here, as they did up until 1992.
“The Russians call them ‘maritime reconnaissance’ planes, and in fact no offensive weapons have yet to be detected, but of course the Russians would be able to move a large number of land attack and antiship cruise missiles into Cuba very easily. So far we count six Tupolev-22M Backfire-C bombers, plus two Il-78 Midas tanker aircraft. The Backfire-Cs have a reconnaissance capability, but they are primarily dash-and-flash bombers. They can carry every weapon in the Russian arsenal, including nuclear and conventional cruise missiles.”
“Not much of an offensive force,” one of the flight pilots said with a bit of bravado. “The Black Knights can probably take out San Juan de los Baños and all the planes with a sneeze. What about fighters?”
“Well, San Juan de los Baños is also the headquarters of the twenty Mikoyan-Gurevich-29 fighters remaining in the Cuban arsenal — they lose about five planes per year during training missions,” Pierce said with a faint smile. “The -29s are the top-of-the-line counter-air fighters, and they have a full ground attack capability and aerial-refueling capability as well. The Cubans also have about three hundred various other fighters deployed around the island, but they put their money in the MiG-29s for sure. Half the Cuban arsenal of surface-to-air missile units is in the Havana area as well.
“That’s for air-base defense. The Russians have stationed three MiG-29 or MiG-31 fighters in Cuba for every bomber as possible bomber escorts. You’ll notice during Hell Week that the 134th Green Mountain Boys from Burlington won’t be playing with you — they’re all committed to air defense duties. Some Backfires have been flying as far north as Newfoundland on their coastal patrols. What do you think of your chances now?” The pilot who made the smug remark was silent. The MiG-29 and -31 were the Russians’ top-of-the-line jet fighters, almost as good as the American F-15 Eagle and nearly a generation better than the F-111. Not even the Vampire’s low-level supersonic capabilities would be a match for a MiG-29 if they got caught over open ocean.
“Christ, I feel like I’m watching TV from the sixties,” Larry Tobias said. “Most of you punks probably don’t remember the Cuban Missile Crisis, but I do — and this is just like it.”
“The Russians have been quiet since the coup in 1991, and they’re coming out again in a big way,” Pierce concluded. “Bottom line: things are getting pretty bleak over in Europe, and if the two most powerful republics of the former Soviet Union start slugging it out for real, it’s anybody’s guess what will happen. Russia has committed itself to asserting its position with military force, including in the Western Hemisphere.”
“Now, wait a minute, Major Pierce,” Major Jamieson said between gulps of coffee. “You’re the intel officer here — you’re supposed to guess about what’s going to happen, or at least pass on what the powers-that-be think is going to happen. Don’t cop out on us — tell us.”
“Our job is not to give you opinions, Ben,” Pierce replied. “We only give you the latest facts.”
“Yeah, right. Okay, tell us your opinion. Are we going to get involved in a fight in Europe?”
The question obviously made Tom Pierce uncomfortable. Even nervous. Furness could see the anxiety in his face. “All right, I’ll tell you my opinion for what it’s worth: the Ukraine is the darling of the West right now, especially the United States. Russia has been dragging its heels with economic reforms, while the Ukraine is opening consulates and trade offices all over the place in an attempt to attract foreign investors. While Russia still hasn’t cut back its conventional military forces according to the Conventional-Forces-in-Europe-Treaty, Ukraine has fully complied — they have scrapped over ten thousand tanks and other armored military vehicles in just the past two years, plus they halted the sale of that half-completed aircraft carrier to mainland China. And while Russia still maintains a substantial nuclear force, including battlefield nuclear weapons, the Ukraine got the United Nations to certify it as a nuclear-free nation late last year. Besides applying for membership in the NATO alliance, there’s talk of the Ukraine joining the European Economic Community — the Ukraine wants to do this because they’ve been under Russia’s thumb for hundreds of years, and a new alignment with the West would help them prosper.”