She wanted some face time with Jack Benson, her China Section boss, to discuss the rapidly developing situation with China. While she was the unchallenged expert on China for the Indonesian crisis task force, she felt as if her knowledge on China proper was becoming dated. Why were the Chinese cooperating with the UN deployment to Indonesia? What happened to their long-standing opposition to interfering in the “internal affairs” of other nations? Why pursue a policy of rapprochement with America on one hand while intimidating Taiwan on another?
Donna signed for another classified report she had requested. She knew she’d pay for her extra reading with another late night — but she had to probe deeper into the mysteries of China’s current policy shifts. Donna broke the seal on the manila envelope and began reading selected cables intercepted from Taiwan’s Defense Ministry.
…Deploy the 8th Infantry Division to Quemoy…
…Reinforce Quemoy with one Patriot battery…
…Prepare to shift additional armor and artillery assets to Quemoy: up to a battalion of each…
…Reinforce Matsu with a battalion of infantry…
…Prepare to cancel military leaves and call up reserves on short notice…
…Additional PLA rocket artillery spotted within range of Quemoy. Estimated regiment of rocket artillery (122mm and 273mm) now deployed east of Amoy capable of reaching Hsiao Quemoy Island…
…Five Russian-made FROG-7 rockets with TELs spotted moving into position by Lianhe, capable of ranging most of Quemoy…
She skimmed through the cables, some of them still in the original Chinese. Clearly the Taiwanese were worried about the Chinese build-up. Apparently they were convinced of the danger to the offshore islands of Quemoy and Matsu — situated perilously near the Mainland as close as six miles away. Yet, Donna shook her head, even the Taiwanese, those in the immediate path of danger, refused to take steps that could really get Beijing’s attention. She noted with frustration that Taiwan considered scaling back economic ties with the Mainland, then refused to do so. They’re just like us. Worse even — it’s their freedom at stake.
Donna paused to massage her tired eyes. She kept meaning to get her eyes checked — she hoped she wouldn’t need glasses but she wouldn’t be surprised if she did.
“Sleeping on government time again, are we?” It was Jack Benson’s voice.
Donna almost jumped, feeling a knee-jerk guilt even though she had already put in 42 hours this week and it was only Wednesday. “Jack, I’m glad you stopped by, I wanted to ask you a few questions and get your opinion on a few matters.”
“Might these matters be about the People’s Republic of China?” Benson asked with a theatric mock.
Donna was mildly annoyed at her boss’s caviler attitude. She knew that he knew how much she resented the more or less permanent assignment to the “temporary” Indonesia task force. Making light of her desire to talk shop only intensified her longing for a return to the familiar.
“Jack, what’s your read on China’s build-up opposite Quemoy. Would they actually try to invade Quemoy?”
Jack began to get his serious face on, “What would they gain?”
Donna decided to throw the ball right back. “I don’t know. Why are they building up then?”
“Political pressure. Taiwan had its second straight free transition of power from one president to another. Pro-independence parties and candidates won the largest share of the vote. It may be China’s way of shaping the new administration in Taipei — showing them who’s boss.”
“Couldn’t they have done the same thing just by firing a few missiles? That would have been cheaper.” Donna was deep in thought, her gaze rested on Jack’s chest, only glancing at his eyes as she finished her statement.
“China does a lot of things even us ‘old China hands’ don’t understand. I don’t know why they’re building up, I just know they are — and I still don’t believe they’d invade. They have too much to lose.”
“Like what?” Donna was now looking directly at Jack with an intensity that always made the divorcee feel uncomfortable.
“Their standing in the world community. Investments from Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and the West. The growing riches of their emerging capitalist class. A return to the days of conquering by force can only set them back. Hell, Donna, if they just stay the course they’ll have a larger economy than ours in less than two decades!”
“What if they thought they couldn’t wait that long?” Donna knew she was pressing, it’s just that it had become so rare recently that she actually had the pleasure of discussing strategic issues in a non-crisis atmosphere.
Jack was enjoying himself in spite of the fact that he thought Donna was too hard-line to be objective. She was pretty after all. “Why wouldn’t they want to wait? The Chinese have a history thousands of years old. Only in the last couple of centuries have they fallen behind. Look at it this way: at their height in the early to mid-80s, the Soviet economy was about 55 % of our own. They had about 110 % of our population base. Their productivity was about half of ours. Today, China has about 55 % of our GNP. They have about four-and-a-half times our population. Their productivity is about one-eighth of ours. China’s economy is far less centrally managed today than was the Soviet economy of the mid-80s. In addition, the Chinese have a much stronger cultural affinity to business than do the Russians. I know you think as I do that it is overly conservative to project the Chinese eventually reaching half of our productivity. When they do, their economy will be two-and-a-half times larger than ours. Hell, I bet they could buy America by 2050!”
“Why buy the nation for real dollars when you can own the politicians for pennies?” Donna couldn’t resist.
“Donna, Donna, Donna. You have to learn to control your wise-ass comments, even in front of friendly colleagues like myself. That attitude of yours is going to get you into trouble.” Jack was moderately scolding.
Donna decided to shift arguments on Jack and try to keep him engaged on discussing China, “What about the accelerated pace of Chinese weapons purchases from Russia? If the Chinese are thinking long-term, why buy equipment that will rapidly be obsolete?”
“Why did Japan buy used British warships after World War One?” Jack struck back by answering a question with a question.
“Because they wanted to be a world power and they only had three percent of the steel production capacity of America. That doesn’t really explain the Chinese situation Jack; they are now the world’s largest producer of steel.”
Jack responded with a smile, “I think it does explain the Chinese situation. Both nations could build military power more efficiently by relying on other nations for arms. In the case of the Japanese and the British, the Japanese were their allies in defeating Germany’s Pacific possessions in World War One. The British economy was in tatters after the war and they saw a means of getting quick cash for old warships. This allowed Japan to concentrate on building its economy rather than shifting prematurely to a war footing. The same with China. They can upgrade their military with cheap Russian hardware while also buying production licenses for domestic manufacture. Eventually, they’ll have the means to produce large amounts of armaments, if they chose. Now, however, I think they are satisfied with making large sums of money.”