Ryan said, “But when the violation comes, there will be no chance to do anything. Russia can take Lithuania at will.”
The Dutch prime minister said, “And my nation can’t prevent that. Look… let’s talk facts. Russia has seven hundred fifty thousand ground troops. The Netherlands has seventeen thousand. They have seven hundred sixty attack and interceptor aircraft. We have sixty-nine. They have three hundred fifty-two warships. We have twenty-three.”
He paused for a moment, cleared his throat, then said, “They have fifteen thousand tanks. We have zero.” He smiled, as if he had just checkmated Ryan, then repeated more forcefully, “Zero, Mr. President.”
And whose fucking fault is that? Ryan didn’t say it, but he thought it so hard he wondered if the interpreters might pick up his feelings and translate them to the room. Europe as a whole had made a high-stakes gamble on permanent world peace, or at least on permanent European peace, and their bet had not paid off. Now Ryan had to convince them to agree to put a few thousand of their troops into action to prevent a European war, while America would carry the water for them all.
He said, “I recognize your nation and many nations here are hopelessly outgunned by Russia. That is all the more reason to accept this proposal. If Volodin walks into Lithuania without a response from us, he will walk, or he will fight, his way into Poland. The rest of the Baltic will look good to him then. At that point, we will be at war, I feel sure, but the question is, how many tanks will you have then? Zero still? Or will you go on an all-out defense buildup and buy twenty-five?”
The Dutch prime minster glared at Ryan.
Ryan said, “You can prevent a larger conflagration by standing firm now.”
The prime minister of the United Kingdom was ceded the floor for a moment, just long enough to assure President Ryan that the UK was behind him and in support of his proposals, and then to implore the rest of the room to carefully consider the blow NATO would take for losing a member state to Russia’s tanks. As soon as he was finished, the young president of Poland echoed the UK’s statement, and assured Ryan the Poles were with him in this fight all the way.
But after this, the French president spoke again. “My intelligence agency does not see an attack on Lithuania as imminent. Yes, it is provocative that Russia is conducting such a large-scale training exercise at this time, but it seems they do this every couple of years.”
Ryan wanted to say, “Yeah, and it seems like they invade a neighbor every couple of years.” But he fought himself, and he held his tongue.
The French president continued. “So we do not feel there is a crisis like the one you describe. Further, at the moment France carries a large percentage of the forces and armor in NATO’s VHRJTF, larger than anyone other than the United States. We feel our burden would be disproportionate, should the Russian invasion come.”
Ryan thought about being diplomatic for a moment.
But not for long.
He said, “Mr. President, you are saying Russia will not attack, so it is not necessary to move the VHRJTF into Lithuania, and then, with the next breath, you say you don’t want to move the VHRJTF because if Russia attacks, your forces would be most affected.”
Ryan looked at the president of France, and he looked at the president of Germany, his close friend Marion Schöngarth. From the expressions on both leaders’ faces, he quickly registered that with his last comment he had lost France and won Germany.
A push.
The prime minister of Denmark had never been a fan of Ryan, he knew this from his dealings with her, and he really knew it from everything she said about him in the press. In the entire room, she probably came the closest to outright hatred of the U.S. President. She pulled her microphone closer to her mouth to speak, and Ryan reached for his glass of water, knowing he was going to need to be ready for a vigorous response to whatever she said.
The Danish prime minister said, “If we move troops to Lithuania, we are asking Volodin to invade. We are giving him the excuse he needs. Is that what you really want? Are you trying to draw us into a fight?”
Ryan shook his head. “By not putting a blocking force in Lithuania we are asking Volodin to invade, because he sees this as nothing but weakness, and the success of his intimidation tactics. You think we would be doing nothing, but we would be doing something. We would be quite actively backing down. The sooner we realize how Valeri Volodin sees the world, the sooner we will understand how we need to counter him.”
The Danish prime minister said, “Apologies for articulating what many people in this room are thinking, Mr. President, but I think this is how you see the world. You, President Ryan, you are the reactionary zealot. Valeri Volodin is no one to fear. He is a tin-pot dictator with an old and inefficient military.”
Ryan wondered how long Denmark could hold out against Russia’s “old and inefficient” military. He presumed their fifty-seven tanks would put up a good fight, but if they survived half a week against Russia, their tankers’ heroics would be spoken of for hundreds of years.
Ryan said, “I respectfully disagree. Yes, he has a poor hand of cards, but he is playing them like the best poker player on the planet.”
The Danish leader said, “Volodin has done nothing against the people of Denmark, and nothing he has done in Lithuania, not even his threats, have risen to the level of an Article Five violation. I will support increasing sanctions — we can fold in the midair collision as part of the reason why. But I don’t want to antagonize a man like Volodin.”
Now the German president, Marion Schöngarth, spoke up. “Our intelligence agencies are quite good, Mr. President. Maybe they aren’t as good at spying on allies as your CIA, but they know Russia.”
Ryan ignored the dig. A whistle-blower had revealed a CIA eavesdropping operation in Germany, and Ryan knew he’d hear about it here. He made no reply, he’d already apologized over the kerfuffle, and he was content to leave it there.
Schöngarth continued, “And my intelligence service says Volodin is looking for a sign from us. He will do all these things you speak of up until an attack, hoping to see clear evidence we will not fight back. When we reveal ourselves as not willing to put up a fight for Lithuania, only then will he move in.”
The Spanish prime minister all but shouted into his microphone: “So he’s bluffing. You just said it. All we have to do is insist we will retaliate, and he will back down. We shouldn’t move forces, because that will be too provocative. That will invite a response when none would come if we kept our cool heads.”
Ryan fought his exasperation now. “When we allowed the former Eastern Bloc nations into NATO, we knew this could happen. NATO isn’t an economic partnership. It’s not a cultural exchange. It’s a military alliance. We didn’t all agree to this union so that we could trade cheese between our nations. No, it is to protect one another.” He paused. “And one of us is in danger of being erased from the map.”
The French prime minister said, “The alliance is to prevent a European war. The former Eastern Bloc nations want revenge on Russia.” He sipped his water. “NATO is not in the revenge business.”
Ryan said, “This is not about revenge for the crimes of a quarter-century ago. This is about protecting people, livelihoods, and futures from a current, imminent, and existential threat.”