Patiently, Ryan added, “I firmly believe moving the troops to Lithuania will reduce any chance there is for war dramatically. That is why I am here today.”
The prime minister of Denmark spoke up now. It was becoming something of a gang attack in here, with Ryan as the victim. She said, “If what you say is correct, that he is trying to draw us into war, then there is nothing to worry about. Other than you, no one in this room wants to go to war. We can’t be drawn in.”
The predictability of the comment left Ryan at a loss. He’d expected better arguments for non-involvement than what he’d heard, almost a preemptive declaration of surrender.
Ryan leaned in to his microphone. “It might be inconvenient for you all that we accepted nations into NATO that might now actually call on NATO to help, but where will we be if we do not respond forcefully to an Article Five violation?”
The Danish prime minister barked angrily, “Where will we be if we do?”
The Italian prime minister spoke up now. “You said he will invade without war if he sees he can get away with it. Well, he invades and we are drawn in, or he invades and we stay out of it. Well… I fall firmly on the side of staying out of it. Of course we will intervene diplomatically, perhaps economically. We will express that this is not how one behaves in this day and age, and we will demonstrate our moral superiority.”
Ryan said, “A show of our moral superiority will not help the Lithuanians nearly as much as a show of our air superiority will.”
An hour later President Ryan, Scott Adler, and his NATO ambassador emerged with the others from the meeting, and after some handshakes he entered his armored car. On the way back to his hotel, Ryan rubbed his eyes under his glasses while his assistant chief of staff got his SecDef on the phone. Ryan took the phone from him as he looked out the window. “Bob? Well, we’ve got Germany. Marion Schöngarth doesn’t love me, but she knows I’m making the right call.”
Burgess said, “Good. Germany is important.” He waited expectantly for more results from the meeting. “Mr. President?”
Ryan said, “My incredible powers of persuasion managed to win the day with Poland, too.” Of course Poland would agree to the motion. It was in the same boat as neighboring Lithuania.
“That’s not funny, Mr. President. Tell me you’ve got more.”
“A lot of nations are playing this close to their vest. Canada will follow us, the UK as well. Most of the Central European countries voiced some support.” Jack shrugged. “But that was a tough room.”
Adler looked across the limo at his President. “I thought you’d do better than that.”
Ryan raised an eyebrow. “This is a tough room, too, apparently.”
“I’m sorry, Mr. President. I didn’t mean to imply it’s your fault. Almost everyone in that meeting already had their mind made up.”
“I know, Scott. I feel like I was trying to herd cats in there. Let’s start with who we know is going to come out against. Spain, Denmark, France… no way they will move NATO troops in advance of an Article Five violation.”
Adler said, “At which point, just as was the case in Ukraine, the invasion is all but a fait accompli.”
“Exactly. Italy looks doubtful, Iceland seemed skeptical it would do any good, but we might get a vote out of them anyway because they didn’t express concern that it would do harm.”
Ryan blew out a sigh. “We’ve got to get full consensus. Just because someone is against doesn’t mean they won’t raise their hand tomorrow. If they want to keep the integrity of the organization intact they might go along with it despite their reservations. But quite frankly… I don’t think we’re going to get our troops.”
Bob Burgess was listening in via speakerphone. He said, “I’ve spoken with the Marine commander for Europe personally. He knows we’re hoping to move NATO into Lithuania, but if that doesn’t happen…”
Ryan said, “He’s ready?”
“He’s ready,” Burgess confirmed. “The Black Sea Rotational Force will move to the eastern border.”
Ryan cocked his head. “What about Lithuania’s border with Kaliningrad? To the west?”
“We have a Special-Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force Crisis Response unit we will send from Morón Air Base in Spain. About seven hundred men in total. We will add to this force a FAST team, that’s a Fleet Antiterrorism Security Team, in Rota, Spain. Another hundred twenty or so Marines, but all exceptionally well trained.”
Ryan said, “Eight hundred Marines in total? That’s even less than the battalion of the Black Sea Rotational Force protecting the east.”
Burgess said, “True, but we are not expecting a big invasion by Russia out of Kaliningrad.”
“Why is that?” Ryan asked.
“Simple, Mr. President. Poland. If the Russians hit Lithuania out of Kaliningrad, it will deplete their defenses in Kaliningrad. The Poles, who also have a border with Kaliningrad and a good military, could then attack Kaliningrad.”
Ryan scoffed at this. “That’s ridiculous. Poland doesn’t want to invade Russian territory.”
“We know that, but the Russians are paranoid.”
Ryan thought it over and then nodded. “Something we can use against them, perhaps.” He waved away the thought. “How long will the BSRF and the Marines on the Kaliningrad border be on their own before we can reinforce them?”
“The Marine Expeditionary Unit off the coast of Scotland has an LHD. Sorry, Scott, that means Landing Helicopter Dock ship. They have two other, smaller transport vessels as well. We’ll have them join up with some warships for protection before they get into the Baltic. They can arrive in Lithuanian waters in five days. After that we have a brigade at Camp Lejeune ready to lift over. They could land in Vilnius in ten days.”
Ryan thought this over. “Regarding the MEU in Scotland. Any chance they can pack everyone up into their ships and head up the North Sea for a day? Make it look like it’s part of their exercise? It would get them that much closer if we decide to pull the trigger, and it wouldn’t necessarily look like we were considering using them.”
Burgess said, “I’ll talk to Nate Bradford, the Marine commandant. I think that sounds like a reasonable measure. If this gets any worse over there, hours will count.”
Ryan said, “If somebody is killing CIA officers and trying to yank station chiefs over the border, then it already is worse over there. I think the only way to plan to succeed in Lithuania is to go ahead and plan on failing here in Copenhagen. Barring an Art Five violation before the consensus vote tomorrow, this one is in the bag, folks. We’ve lost.”
As Ryan said this, just eight miles to his east, the Russian Severodvinsk-class submarine Kazan passed under the bridge that connected Malmo, Sweden, with Copenhagen, Denmark.
Directly above the silent vessel, European Union commuters passed in their cars between Denmark and Sweden, blissfully unaware that a massive predator skulked in the cold waters below them.
The Kazan was twenty-four hours away from initiating hostile actions off the coast of Kaliningrad, and no one in the West knew it had even left port in the Arctic.
55
Twenty-four hours after the attempted kidnapping of CIA chief of station Peter Branyon, no one in Lithuania knew anything more about what had actually happened than they did during the event.
The two men of The Campus had spent the hours hard at work, beginning the moment Chavez and Caruso drove the wounded Branyon away from the border. Once they were out of range of whatever technology was jamming both cell and satellite signals near the border, Ding called Branyon’s second-in-command at the U.S. embassy. When he got through he put Branyon himself on the phone with his deputy, and the CoS gave a sit rep and orders even as he fought vomiting from the pain and losing consciousness from the blood loss.