NATPAC remembered being taught decision trees by imagining how to spend an afternoon: “I can either go to the park or to a café. If I go to the park there is a 30 % chance it will rain and a 70 % chance it will not. If I go to the park and it rains I will have to run home. But if I go to the park and it does not rain I will be able to sit outside and read.” This was how he was used to thinking. This technique allowed decision-making to be quantitative and precise. Thinking in decision trees helped NATPAC map out all of the possibilities. People who were not quantitative thinkers, like those in one region of the world NATPAC knew, very often ended up making mistakes in their decisions simply because of not mapping it out. NATPAC had no problem visualizing trees multiple nodes deep:
NATPAC proudly thought about how the Chinese leadership used very deep versions of these decision trees to their advantage. While the rest of the world was thinking, at best, 2–4 years ahead, which might be one node out in a country’s political decision tree, China’s leaders had mapped out the plan twenty or twenty-five nodes out — they were thinking in decades and centuries. They could do this because they did not have the burden of elections every few years like the West. We are smarter, NATPAC thought. China did not let any clown off the street get up and vote. The leaders knew what was best for everyone. NATPAC was proud that his job was to get the information that helped them make decisions.
But right now, NATPAC was using decision trees to analyze what could happen tomorrow. As he thought about it, he shifted in his chair to a more comfortable position. Tomorrow, when the Americans will try to insert this operative, he thought, if his friends in North Korea acted according to plan, the odds would favor them. If this operative makes his way to the compound, which NATPAC was still not sure he would attempt, he would be even more likely to get caught. In fact, as he mapped out the decision tree, he thought the probability of this operative succeeding had to be low. He had to land on the beach and avoid capture, make it through the land and avoid capture, get into the base and avoid capture, and make it back and avoid capture. At each node, capture became more unavoidable, if his friends followed the plan. When you multiplied the independent probabilities, the overall probability of this operative’s success had to be less than 5 %. We can capture him and then learn everything we do not yet know about the CIA, he thought.
As he was more comfortable, NATPAC rose and left his office. He decided to go into the main room where his 15 hackers sat. He wanted to check on them before going home. He made his way down the dark hall outside his office and soon came to the bull-pen. His hacker-army was hard at work. He wanted to check in with his Lieutenant. His hacking skills were the strongest, hence why he was the one who found out about this CIA operation. The Lieutenant’s username was SLOTHMAN. NATPAC walked up right behind him and looked at the code on his screen.
“Any updates?” NATPAC asked.
“No,” SLOTHMAN answered. SLOTHMAN was not a talker.
“Did they figure out what we did? How we read that message. Did they see?”
“No. They are still sending out messages so they haven’t figured out what we are doing.”
“Anything about this operation tomorrow?”
“No. Most of the traffic is mundane stuff. They are sending updates to the lunch menus at the embassies. They are also sending the military information about sports scores in their country.”
NATPAC let out a conceited whiff of air as he smirked “Heh. You’re too good. You should at least let them think they are being hacked. This is like taking candy from a baby.”
“What do you mean, sir?”
“They have no idea we know about this operation tomorrow. They are proceeding with it, thinking everything is going according to plan.” NATPAC was slightly annoyed that SLOTHMAN was not keeping up. Maybe he was tired — he had a long day trying to find out more about the CIA’s plans.
“Yes, sir, that seems to be the case.”
“OK well stay on top of it. If you want to sleep here in the office feel free to do so.”
“Thank you, sir.”
NATPAC walked away. As he walked home he thought about how he had turned around what could have been a disaster to him. Now he was excited about the disaster that he would deliver to the CIA.
CHAPTER 14
Jiyeon walked quickly through the streets. The chill early morning air was the only company she had in the quiet city. The previous night, she and Tom agreed to meet at a local hotel for breakfast, and Jiyeon was afraid she would be late. She found the hotel on which they agreed and entered the warm lobby.
She was ushered into the dining room in the back. She saw Tom sitting alone at a table with two coffees and a few small plates of breakfast. He was peacefully watching BBC World News on a screen in front of him.
“Good morning,” she said as she walked over.
Tom looked up and smiled. He was sitting comfortably for someone who had a mission today, she thought.
“Hey. I got us some coffee,” he said.
Jiyeon sat down next to him. She could not stop herself from asking, “how do you feel?”
Tom nodded. His face had no expression, “Good. I’m ready.”
“I’ll be there to see you off this afternoon.”
“That’s nice. You can see what I look like in my full gear. Quite different than a suit.” He let out a small smile. Just then, BBC World News moved to a different news item. It was about the Korean peninsula:
“Tensions continued in the Korean peninsula as North Korea released a video of a military parade in the capital Pyongyang. Thousands of soldiers were seen marching. They were accompanied by tanks, several of which appeared to be a new version experts have never seen before. Regime leaders made speeches to the military and the hundred-thousand strong crowd saying that they must be ready for war. The regime announced its artillery and short-range missile regiments are now on highest alert as they prepare for war with South Korea.”
Jiyeon shifted in her chair. She put her coffee on the table and slowly set her head into her hand.
“I just wish we didn’t have to do this.”
“What?”
“This mission. I don’t want you to go in there.”
Tom paused before speaking. “It will be OK. This is a quick one. I’ll be back by tomorrow morning.”
Jiyeon heard his voice, but his reasoning did not seep through. She had spent eight years managing the NIS’s illegals in North Korea. She never met most of them. She had a very limited personal interaction with them. For all these years, she looked at them as weapons. They were Mr. Park’s eyes and ears in that country. She did not want any harm to come to them, and she often thought about their families. But there was always a barrier between them and her. She was not connected to their fates.
“I wish none of this ever happened.” She said. She was not crying but her voice was calling out for help. “I wish 1414 didn’t get compromised. I wish he never found out about this strange base. Who knows what you’re going to find there. It will be dangerous whatever it is. And they might catch you.”
Tom put his arm around her and pulled her closer. “Hey. Come on. You realize if 1414 never found that compound, we never would have met?” She looked up at him as he said that. A mind confused by paradox can be cured of anything.
“I just can’t believe that when the sun goes down today, you will be there. You will be breathing their air. You will be walking on their grass.”