“That’s supposed to be funny?” Amos shrugged. “What’s the point?”
“Let me put it another way.”
“Maybe you’d better, because you’re confusing me good.”
“We’ve all been trying to analyze the situation so we can solve the Ben Said problem, right?”
“Of course.” Aricha set his coffee down. “The goal must be to stop or prevent the megaterror he is planning to commit on Israeli soil.”
“That’s always been the assumption.”
“But you also contend, Tom, that the ambush ten days ago in Gaza in which three American embassy employees were killed, and the two bombings-Heinrich Azouz, the German national in the Nablus Road Hotel, and Malik Suleiman at Mike’s Bar in Tel Aviv-are all related equally to the planning for this megaterror.”
“I do.”
Aricha cracked his knuckles. “I can tell you for sure Shin Bet doesn’t see it.”
“See what?”
“The relationship. In the first incident, the bomb went off prematurely while Azouz was affixing the detonator. That’s what you call operator error. We were able to prove conclusively that the explosion was caused by static electricity. End of story. In the second, a survivor swears he heard Malik, the perpetrator, exclaim,‘Allah akbar!’ just before the explosion went off. We are convinced he detonated the bomb after having second thoughts about killing his girlfriend. No operator error, no static. Full stop. And the Gaza incident was Arafat’s way of sending a signal to the Bush administration to back off its support of Sharon.”
Aricha rapped scarred knuckles on the tabletop. “I accept that incidents one and two are related. I accept your theory that the man you call Ben Said and we refer to as Bomber-X is working on a new form of undetectable explosive. I accept that he was a participant in the Gaza incident, by which I mean he supplied the plastique and was on-site for its detonation so he could watch firsthand its effects. But that’s the extent of it, Tom. Gaza is a whole other whatchamacallit-kettle from fish. Full stop again. End of story, kiddo.”
Tom said, “Wheelbarrows, Amos. Think wheelbarrows.”
The Israeli scratched his head. “Reuven, what’s with these wheelbar-rows?”
Reuven toyed with the heavy gold chain around his neck. “Pay attention, Grandfather,” he said in Hebrew. “Maybe even you will learn something from the youngster.”
Tom caught the look that passed between the old soldiers. He swiveled toward Aricha. “You’re basing your conclusions on two common threads: the explosives, and the fact that there’s a plan to wage megaterror against Israel sometime in the near term.”
“Because those are the logical conclusions to draw from what we know about the events. We look at what happened, and we draw conclusions from our experience. We rely on”-he fought for the word in English-“empirical logic.”
“Precisely.” Tom noted the look of confusion on Aricha’s face. “But, Amos, too often, when we analyze a problem, we begin the process by formulating our conclusions. I think that’s what happened in Shin Bet.”
“You say we start with conclusions? I think not.” Aricha folded his arms on his chest. “Shabak started with explosions.”
It was a defensive position. Tom extended his legs, shifting his own body into a nonthreatening attitude. He softened his tone. “I’m not talking about you personally. It’s a problem that’s endemic to the whole intelligence community-you, us, everybody.” He paused as he caught the confused look on the Israeli’s face. “A natural mistake, if you will. In this case, Amos, the conclusion Shin Bet drew-and it’s a perfectly logical one to reach-is that two of the three incidents are directly related to explosives and evidence of a mega-attack on Israel in the near future.” He looked at Aricha. “Am I correct in the way I characterized the situation?”
The Shin Bet man’s head bobbed up and down. “On the money.”
“What I’m saying is that if that’s how you see things, then all of your analysis-all the evidence-tends to support that predetermined conclusion-this is all about megaterror directed at Israel.”
Aricha frowned at Reuven. “Again he thinks our evidence is wrong.”
“No.” Tom began again. “Your evidence is accurate. But I think by focusing on theliteral substance of the problem-the evidence, the arguments pro and con, the conclusions-we’re missing the point. We all missed the point. That’s what I mean by wheelbarrows, Amos. The security guard reached a logical conclusion: since it was a diamond mine, the guy had to be stealing diamonds. That was a logical assumption, right?”
“From a diamond mine you don’t steal rubies. Yes-logical.”
“But incorrect. Bad analysis. If the guard had approached the problem with an open mind-if he hadn’t boxed himself in by not considering any other conclusion than ‘diamonds are being stolen,’ he might have included the possibility that something else was being taken. Like wheelbarrows.”
Tom watched as Aricha stroked his chin. Warily, the Israeli said, “Go on.”
“We’ve been focusing on explosives for use in attacks against Israel. I think these people solved the explosives problem a long time ago. I think Ben Said has a formula that worked-until now. Why now? Because now we can all start devising countermeasures.” He paused, gratified to see Amos nodding in agreement. “I think what Ben Said’s been working on since August…isdetonators.” Tom took another swallow of coffee. “Jerusalem-the German Arab. He blew himself up arming the detonator, right?”
“Yes.”
“And Malik. What was he doing? He was attaching the detonator to the bomb, or arming it, or something. Because the idea was for him to go to the restroom and detonate the device remotely. He was going to be a lucky survivor. Dianne was going to take the fall.”
Aricha cut one of the figs in half, speared a piece, and put it in his mouth. “So how did the device go off prematurely, kiddo?”
“It could have been a faulty detonator,” Tom said. “It also could have been the embassy-set off by one of the variable-frequency oscillators mounted on the embassy building.”
“Mike’s is two hundred and five meters from the northwest corner of the embassy,” Reuven said. “I paced it off yesterday.”
Aricha frowned. “Wouldn’t they know that? These people do target assessments, Reuven.”
“It’s common knowledge the ambassador has forbidden VFOs on embassy vehicles, Amos,” Tom continued. “The embassy’s devices have been camouflaged to look like TV satellite dishes. No different than hundreds of others.”
“Go on.”
“But I decided the explosion wasn’t set off by the embassy devices. It was Malik’s carelessness. Or, the detonator was faulty. Possibly the remote-maybe there’s something awry in the circuitry. I don’t know-I’m not an explosives expert. Which brought me to the third incident: Gaza. It was an anomaly.”
Aricha frowned. “Anomaly?”
“There was something about Gaza that didn’t fit. I can accept that our man was killed because of the information about Imad Mugniyah. I think that’s pretty clear. But it doesn’t explain Ben Said’s presence.”
Amos cocked his head in Tom’s direction. “A meeting with Arafat perhaps.”
“Unlikely. Ben Said likes his anonymity. His pattern all along has been to work through middlemen. No: I believe he was here because he was fine-tuning his detonators. Two of them had failed. He came here so he could make adjustments-do the last-minute work before he puts his latest generation of IEDs into play-against the West, not against Israel.”