‘To show solidarity with the Americans and the Japanese,’ said Hari Dixit.
‘For symbolic reasons, they are all conventional missile strikes. We are using the Prithvi with single 500 kilogram warheads from bases in Arunachal Pradesh on targets in Myanmar, and from bases on the Andaman Islands to hit Hanggyi and Little Cocos Island. The Agni from Gorakhpur region is due to impact on Chuxiong. It has a single 1,000 kilogram warhead. Ground-attack aircraft are already in the air for an immediate follow up on Hanggyi and Little Cocos Island. The aim is to put all Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal military activity to an end.’
USS Ronald Reagan, Bay of Bengaclass="underline" 15° N, 85° E
President Tao’s command came through as a two-syllable message picked up by the National Security Agency listening station at Menwith Hill in northern England, sent through to the NSA at CINCPAC headquarters in Hawaii and relayed immediately to the commander of the USS Ronald Reagan. It comprised yet another phrase, not encrypted, but compressed so that the transmission time was just a fraction of a second. Long Huo, it said, Dragon Fire, beamed down from the same orbiting Chinese satellite which had instructed the Kilo-class submarine to attack the Bombay. An encrypted and frequency-hopping signal almost certainly coming from the Xia-class nuclear armed submarine in the Bay of Bengal was sent back. The Xia could not pick up signals under water and must have been at least at periscope depth. It was daylight and unlucky that no ship was in the vicinity when the Xia came up. The NSA analysts put the vessel at about 150 kilometres south-west of the carrier group. A call was sent to all shipping, commercial and military, to look out for the submarine. Even then it was like finding a needle in a haystack.
The Indians were carrying out round-the-clock antisubmarine patrols in the area of probability where it was thought the Xia could be. The Americans were doing the same, and their experience and more sophisticated equipment, such as trailing kilometres of sonar buoys through the area of probability, meant that vast areas of sea were being eliminated. But none got a positive identification. The water was deep and the Xia had dived. If it was carrying the JL-2, it could be fired from anywhere inside the Bay of Bengal and hit a target in India.
The Xia was under orders to receive messages every twelve hours, and as the Indian missile attack was detected it was on schedule to come up. Had Tao hesitated with his decision, it would have been another half-day before he could have given the command.
The Kremlin, Moscow, Russia
The news of the Indian launch reached President Gorbunov minutes after it got to the White House Situation Room. President Tao came through immediately and said in Russian: ‘I have given the command. It is sea-launched.’ He spoke in a manner which left Gorbunov certain as to what he meant. He also knew exactly the unstoppable process under which Tao had decided to operate. Once under the surface again, the commander of the Xia could receive no messages from the outside world. He would now be working side by side with his weapons engineer, preparing for the launch. Each man held separate keys and codes to verify each other’s actions. When the missile was fired, there would be no doubt that it had been on the instructions of a legitimate government and that the men on the trigger were acting professionally and under orders.
Gorbunov telephoned John Hastings. ‘I have intelligence that the Chinese have initiated a nuclear strike against India,’ he said.
Hastings was silent for a long time. ‘Are you in contact with President Tao?’
‘I am.’
‘Tell him to stop.’
‘It is submarine-launched from the Bay of Bengal. Short of finding the vessel and destroying it, no one can revert the order.’
‘Is Tao sane?’
‘Perfectly. He sees it as a legitimate act of war. In discussions with him, he compared it to the American atomic bombing of Japan — necessary to bring about a decisive end to the conflict.’
‘Then tell him that if his nuclear missile does strike India, the United States will obliterate his nuclear arsenal and his government with it. There won’t be a China left to surrender.’
It was now Gorbunov’s turn to use the silent pause. ‘That is the main reason for my call,’ he said eventually. ‘Russia does not want American interference in this conflict. We understand your treaty obligations over Taiwan and Japan and have stayed silent at your conventional cruise missile strike on Xiamen. But if you threaten China with nuclear retaliation, Russia will have no alternative but to threaten the United States with a counter-strike.’
The conversation in English was being carried around the situation room on a speaker. The bustle of activity ended and the room became quiet.
‘I’m not sure what you are saying, Vlad.’
‘This is a conflict between India and China. Both you and I have tried to broker a peace and have failed. China has decided to use the nuclear option. India, so far, has not. You have yet to discuss this with your colleagues, but I suspect you will end up deciding not to risk losing an American city to save an Indian one. However, to posture and threaten will be dangerous for world peace. Therefore, see it as my doing you a favour, John. Should you make a statement threatening China, Russian missiles will be launched not against United States territory — I’ll leave that to the Chinese — but against the Menwith Hill listening station in Britain and the Pine Gap listening station near Alice Springs in Australia. As well as damaging your intelligence-gathering capabilities, it will knock out the European Relay Ground Station for the space-based infrared theatre missile-defence system. That will eliminate your early warning mechanism for a missile strike from Russia. It will also split Western political resolve. The Australians and the British might think twice about your policies. Should you not then reconsider, we will be back on a Cold War footing of what we used to call Mutually Assured Destruction.’
‘Why, Vlad? Why on earth are you doing this?’
‘You’ve got to learn to balance power again, John. The Russian people feel you have walked all over them since the end of the Cold War. Vulnerable people who have lost their pride are dangerous. I am anticipating a way forward. If Tao is telling me the truth, India will decide her next actions, not Russia and not America.’
The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC
‘He could be bluffing,’ said Bloodworth.
‘If he’s not…’ said Alvin Jebb.
Bloodworth pulled up a map of Russia’s nuclear facilities and projected them onto a screen in the meeting room. ‘Let’s assume for a few minutes that we can do something. We could take out 12th Main Directorate offices here in Moscow with a conventional cruise missile strike. We could shut down the Tatishchevo launch base at 51°40′ N, 45°34′ E — again with a conventional strike. We could use tactical nuclear weapons against the Krasnoarmeyskoye storage facility south of Saratov, 51°12′ N, 46°02′ E. Only nuclear warheads would get into the ravined area which protects the bunkers. We would need tactical nuclear warheads against Malaya Sazanka, just south of Svobodnyl in the Far East, 51°15′ N, 128°1′ E. This is one of the older storage facilities, but it’s still active. Again, we would need a nuclear strike against Mozhaysk, which is the closest storage bunker to Moscow at 55°26′ N, 35°46′ E. The satellite photograph, here, shows the soccer field within the perimeter fence, indicating the size of the facility we would be destroying. We could get away with a conventional strike at Nizhnyaya Tura on both the storage facility at 58°37′ N, 59°45′ E and the nuclear weapons production plant there. We might have to be careful because Nizhnyaya Tura works together with Sverdlovsk-45, the biological weapons research facility, which could release something like smallpox into the air when a missile smashes into it.’ Bloodworth looked around the room. ‘That is just a fraction of what my computer has thrown up.’