There were several options in their escape and evasion packet. As long as they had a radio, they could keep communications with the base station and rearrange their exfiltration somewhere along the evasion route chosen.
The first option was northeast: Use the Sungari River itself. Wearing their dry suits and taking advantage of the river's fast current, they could float downriver each night and hole up on shore during the day. With the current at 2.2 meters a second, it would quickly get them out of the immediate area. There were two major problems with that plan. First, they would have to pass through the city of Harbin, where the odds of being spotted were very high. The second was that after 750 kilometers, and an estimated sixteen nights in the water, they would only get to the border with Russia and the Sungari's junction with the Amur River. If they stayed on the Amur, it was more than 1,000 kilometers to the Tatar Strait. There things would get even more difficult, and the options more vague. Perhaps getting picked up off the coast by submarine. Perhaps stealing a boat and making it into international waters. They'd known in isolation that the river option wasn't the greatest, but its one advantage was that it got them out of the target area relatively quickly and unobtrusively.
The second option was to evade to the southeast by foot and strike out directly for the coast. This would entail a land trip of almost 250 kilometers. If they had to walk the whole way, Riley conservatively estimated a minimum of thirty to forty days. Probably more, since the Changbai Mountain Range lay in the way, 150 kilometers from the coast. The mountains were a significant obstacle. At its highest, the range was close to sixteen thousand feet. The planned route called for them to skirt the highest part of the range by going around to the north and crossing the Russian rather than North Korean border.
On the southeastern route there was always the possibility of getting helicopters to pick them up along the way, if they were still in communication with the FOB. They'd listed several potential pickup points in the escape and evasion packet. Every step they took toward the southeast would make the flight shorter.
If they didn't get picked up by helicopter en route and had to walk the whole way to the coast, then the plan was either to coordinate getting picked up by a submarine or ship, or to steal a boat. The southeastern route was more viable than up north in the restricted Tatar Strait because they would be closer to Japan and more open water. Unfortunately, this direction would be most closely watched if the Chinese suspected American involvement. Riley believed firmly in the military tenet that the direct route was always the most dangerous.
Heading west wasn't feasible. Not unless they wanted to spend the rest of their lives strolling across the expanse of China, Mongolia, and then Russia proper.
The last option they had considered was heading southwest, following the pipe to its southern terminal and the coast seven hundred kilometers away on the Yellow Sea. That way was ranked last in choice for two reasons. First, the population increased as you went south, and the chance of being spotted increased correspondingly. The second problem was that the Yellow Sea terminated in the north in either Korea Bay or the Gulf of Chihli. Both bodies of water were surrounded on three sides by either China or North Korea. It was an area that the U.S. Navy and Air Force avoided. The Sea of Japan might be dangerous, but at least it led somewhere other than a dead end. If Team 3 went southwest, the odds of getting picked up were greatly diminished. Any foreign intrusion into the sea or airspace would almost certainly be detected.
Riley and Mitchell ran all these options through their minds, weighing them against the current team situation. After a few minutes Mitchell expressed his thoughts. "The first thing we have to consider is that O'Shaugnesy is hurt. Unless we want to carry him a long way, I think we have only two options. One is to go northeast using the river. We can put O'Shaugnesy in a dry suit and float him along with us without too much trouble. We'd never make it out if we went southeast or southwest, trying to walk and carry him.
"The only other option that seems feasible is staying in place for a while until things cool down and see if the FOB will retry the original PZ. Hunker down for a couple of weeks in the area." Mitchell held up his hand as Riley started to protest.
"Yeah, Dave, I know that doesn't seem too smart. The Chinese are going to be over this place like stink on shit after we blow the pipe. But if we escape their initial sweep, I don't think they would figure that whoever did it would stay in the area."
Riley considered that. He could easily imagine how the Chinese would search the area. Their army certainly had the manpower to do it thoroughly. They would bring in large numbers of troops and make a long search line. Everything and everybody in its path would be found. Riley didn't fancy the idea of trying to evade one of those sweeps. Maybe they could put on their dry suits and hide in the swamp, but he still didn't think they'd escape detection.
Floating down the river didn't appeal to him either, though. True, it would get them out of the immediate area quickly. And it was the one way they could move O'Shaugnesy without having to carry him. But they would be heading in the wrong direction. The team was already on the outer fringes of the range for exfiltration helicopters from Japan. If they went northeast it would further diminish that possibility. Trying to steal a boat or make a water pickup way up there wasn't too likely either. Low probability of success, Riley calculated.
"Yeah, you're right. With O'Shaugnesy hurt we don't have many choices. If the birds don't come tonight, what do you say we head southeast as far as we can carry O'Shaugnesy in the dark, then hole up. See what the FOB has to say about reflying the exfiltration later on."
The unspoken option — one that Riley and Mitchell would not even consider — was leaving O'Shaugnesy. During training exercises, Riley had evaluated teams during their mission planning, and he had actually seen a few teams talk about leaving a wounded man behind if taking him meant the rest of the team wouldn't make exfiltration. That Special Forces soldiers would even discuss such a thing made Riley's blood boil. His early indoctrination into Special Forces had impressed one rule upon him above alclass="underline" Never leave anyone behind. A team was just that — a team. It should live or die as a team.
The argument Riley heard from those who talked of leaving a wounded man behind was that it was practical. Why trade eleven lives for one? Riley's counterpoint to this kind of reasoning was to ask each person that one important question: "How would you feel if you were the one they were going to leave behind? Think about it real hard before you answer. How would you feel if you were the one who was going to be abandoned?"
Beyond the moral considerations, Riley felt there was also a practical aspect. If a soldier knew that he might be left behind if he was wounded, he'd be much less willing to take chances — potentially to the detriment of the mission.
On Team 3, Riley and Mitchell emphasized teamwork in everything they did. During physical training runs, Team 3 always finished as an intact group. If someone fell behind, the rest would go back and get him. Riley was proud that no one on this team had even brought up the possibility of leaving a team member — not in planning, or even now, when faced with the grim reality of the situation. That might change if the birds didn't show, but Riley doubted it.
Captain Lemester squinted into the wind as the second helicopter settled down on the helipad located on the fantail of the ship. He waited until the blades on both birds stopped turning, then walked out to the lead one. He was already disquieted by the fact that the helicopters bore no marking. He recognized the type: Sikorsky UH-60. But he'd never seen a UH-60 Blackhawk with a flat black paint job and extra fuel tanks hung on the small wings above the cargo bay.