Xinhua also carried a statement from President Wang Feng. It was a veiled warning to the United States to keep out of China's internal affairs. `If someone makes a show of force in the Taiwan Straits, that will not be helpful but will make the situation all the more complicated,' he said. Xinhua then warned him how China would respond if US warships entered the 200 kilometre wide passage between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland. `If someone threatens the use of force against China this has been shown by past experience — will not spell any good results.'
The meeting room in which Hyashi liked to hold some of his Cabinet committee meetings filled with the now familiar faces. Ishihara from the Defence Ministry sat on the Prime Minister's right; on his left, Kimura from the Foreign Ministry. Wada and Naito (Finance and Trade respectively) were next, followed by General Ogawa, Director, Defence Intelligence Headquarters.
`Well, General Ogawa, what is your assessment?' the Prime Minister began.
`From what we can tell so far,' the General began, `based on telecommunications intercepts and information from an AWACS we sent up soon after the first interception at 0700, the Chinese have launched a two-pronged assault on the north of Taiwan. They have landed at Tan-shui on the north-west tip of the island and at Hsin-chu further south down the coast. Our assessment is that they have overstretched themselves. Taiwan is well defended and the military possesses the latest, or near to latest, American and European equipment.
`Taiwan has 425,000 active servicemen split between the army (289,000), navy (68,000), and air force (68,000). The cornerstone of its defence, however, is its relationship with America. The US-Taiwan military relationship has remained strong, in spite of attempts by Beijing to drive a wedge between the two. Washington has sold or leased modern weaponry, including frigates, F-16 jet fighters, attack helicopters, early warning aircraft, tank-landing ships, anti-ship missiles, anti-submarine-warfare equipment, and ballistic-missile-defence equipment. According to one source, "most of the armaments are suited for repulsing a sea assault or thwarting a naval blockade". If China is successful in making a beachhead it will face fierce local resistance. Taiwan has more than 300 tanks, of which at least half are located in the north-east. At sea, with 22 destroyers, 11 frigates, and 4 submarines it will be able to put up a stout defence to the Chinese.'
The Prime Minister quietly sucked air through his teeth. Ogawa knew it was time to stop. Hyashi thanked him for his report. Ogawa rose and left the room. Hyashi then turned to Foreign Minister Kimura.
`Kimura-san, why have they done this?' he asked. `Our navy has completed its first escort of our merchant ships through the South China Sea. Now the Taiwan Straits are effectively closed. That's not a serious problem, I grant you, but what does this action by the Chinese mean for our islands of Senkaku?'
`There are two questions there, Prime Minister. To the first the honest answer is, we do not know. However, we think this attack is based upon a misreading of the politico-military situation in Taiwan. The proximate cause would appear to be some statements made by the leaders of Taiwan's New Party. The New Party was founded in 1994 and is a breakaway faction of the Kuomingtang, or KMT. The New Party has always favoured reunification and has despaired as the KMT has run a line, both domestically and internationally, that seeks an independent identity for Taiwan. The New Party's spokesmen were particularly bellicose on China's behalf during the Dragonstrike conflict. Some even suggested that Taiwan should unify with the mainland to present a united Chinese face to the world. Significantly, at a meeting in Taipei at the height of the conflict the twenty-second of February number of important generals, including General Yen Chi-tsai, who controls the army around Hsin-chu, were present at a meeting with senior New Party officials. A colonel on General Yen's staff, a Hung Tzu-lin, went to Beijing the next day — the twenty-third of February. We do not know what he did in Beijing but our information is that he visited Zhongnanhai and the Taiwan Affairs Office. Our best guess is that Beijing, which as you can see is well informed about affairs on Taiwan, has acted on the belief that General Yen was an ally and that the Taiwanese military is deeply divided. We further believe that the troops landed at Hsinchu are no more than a token, symbolic force and are not intended to spearhead a major invasion. As further evidence for this I offer the Xinhua News Agency's initial dispatch. It is notable for its lack of hard-line rhetoric towards the rulers in Taiwan. `
As for our position on the Senkaku Islands, no one internationally, takes China's claim at all seriously. The Chinese call the islands Taioyu-tai and include them on their official maps. There have been skirmishes in the past. A Chinese campaign to regain the islands cannot be ruled out, especially in the face of this latest crisis, based, as it is, on national reunification. We need to be vigilant. Our navy should escort merchant shipping not just out through the South China Sea but also through the waters of the East China Sea where the Senkaku Islands lie.'
Hyashi was still. `I have been preoccupied over the past week or so with our relations with the United States. We spoke about this, Kimura-san, only two days ago. Every time I see Monroe, the US Ambassador, he is on at me to visit Washington. Perhaps this latest disturbance might prove useful. At times such as these a country like Japan needs friends. I will be placing a call to President Bradlay after this meeting.'
President Bradlay had just returned to Washington from a visit to Chicago. There he had reacquainted himself with the city whose terrible riots the previous summer Bradlay had stemmed and, in the process, brought himself a much needed boost in the opinion polls. He toured the Southside ghettos and spoke to civic leaders and community representatives. His Communications Director billed the speech as the most important presidential statement about urban reform since George Bush went to Los Angeles in the wake of the Rodney King riots in 1992 and promised federal aid for the inner cities. Bradlay was with advisers when Martin Weinstein, his National Security Adviser, entered with news of the Chinese attack on Taiwan.
`This time I think they have met their match,' he said as he briefed Bradlay on the situation. He also told the President to expect a call from Prime Minister Hyashi. `He's ready to come back into the fold,' Weinstein said.
`How should we play this, Marty? I mean, what is Wang up to here? Three weeks ago he tells me on the telephone that he will return the islands to Taiwan that they took, and now he is engaged on a hare-brained adventure against the Taiwanese. Doesn't he know Taiwan has one of the most sophisticated arsenals in Asia? What does he expect us to do? I gave my word to the American people that we were leaving the battlefield with honour. He's made a fool out of me!'
`Mr President, your analysis is, as usual, as perceptive as ever,' said Weinstein. `But consider this. We think, and our Japanese friends agree, that Wang launched this attack in the belief that the Taiwanese military would not fight. He has been proved wrong. It is by no means certain that mainland China will prevail. The Taiwanese are well armed, and they hate the Communists. Yes, Wang has gone back on his word to you, but my recommendation is that we stand back don't want to get involved directly to support the Taiwanese with all the military hardware and advice they need.'