“No, I can’t question your basic mathematics,” Avner replied. “We have been thinking through exactly the scenario you describe. I will say that first and foremost, the Arrow is specifically set up to intercept ballistic missiles from Persia. So this system will not be used against adjacent threats. As for Iron Dome, there is a concerted effort to develop the command software so that it discriminates between different levels of missile threat.
“Stated more directly, the software for Iron Dome, once it goes operational, will discriminate between a Katyusha and a M-600 or a Scud. This is accomplished three ways. First, the radar cross-section helps to differentiate given that the bigger the missile, the greater the threat. Second is the trajectory of the inbound target. The system quickly estimates the general impact area of an incoming missile. We also know, for instance, that Hezbollah will launch their big missiles from north of the Litani. Obviously these types of calculation will give you the range of the missile. Longer range missiles are greater threats. Finally, the speed and projected maximum altitude is critical to differentiating between missile types.”
“Ah, I see. Thank you.”
“But it is clear that we need to get Iron Dome operational as quickly as possible and we need more of these missiles sooner rather than later. Finally, we will need to integrate the Patriots, Iron Dome and the Arrows onto a network. This program is our highest priority right now.”
Cohen took a deep gulp of water and put his bottle back down. “What is your second point, Zvi?”
“Yes, yes. It is my great pleasure to report that the day after our last meeting, two U.S. Air Force C-17s landed at Hatzerim Airbase and unloaded fifty-five GBU-28s.” This was news to only Avi Gresch and Danny Stein. It would be news to Mort Yaguda at the next Kitchen Cabinet meeting.
Gresch clapped his hands. “Well, at least we are a step closer.”
“Yes, it’s about time,” Avner continued. “We are working to get the remaining forty-five bombs in our original deal, but I do not have a timeline on that yet.”
12 — Block G
“Okay,” Cohen interrupted. He was ready to get to the point of this meeting. The reason had been established two nights earlier when Zvi Avner came to the prime minister’s home for dinner. Avner was excited and couldn’t wait to share news with his commander-in-chief. Finally a concept existed which gave Israel a real plan to destroy the Iranian program, and the man who had been the most pessimistic was now enthusiastic for the first time. “Let’s talk about why I called this meeting,” Cohen said. “I will start by reminding you all about Amit Margolis, the Mossad agent who was added to the Yahalom Group in January. I hoped at the time that he would bring some creativity to the very conventional planning that had occurred up to then. And, Ben, I think you will agree that as of year-end, despite over a year of planning, there was yet to emerge anything that seemed plausible that did not involve the U.S. Air Force.” Cohen looked at Raibani. He wanted acknowledgement that 2009 had been a fruitless exercise in conventional planning. “Ben, you agree?”
“Yes. No question. I have to admit that we do not yet have a workable solution to this challenge. Not last year or this year for that matter. But I still have not changed my mind on the nuclear option, even one bit.”
“Good, because I am hoping that after this meeting, the nuclear option will be permanently off the table.” That comment was more than enough to get everyone in the room excited. “Zvi, please continue.”
Avner gathered his thoughts, drumming his pen on the notepad. “Last week I received a request from Amit Margolis, the man that the prime minister just mentioned. He wanted to meet me one-on-one and run an idea past me. He called it ‘Esther’s Sling.’ He had not previously mentioned this concept to anyone in Yahalom Group or anywhere else. We met in my office at the Campus. I planned for only a few minutes, but we talked for almost two hours. The prime minister and I met for dinner Sunday night and reviewed the concept.
“The whole point of this plan addresses the core tactical issue we face: Our Air Force is simply not large enough to achieve the strategic goal in one sortie. And yet, for all the reasons we have discussed ad nauseam, we have to find a way to get the job done in one sortie. We have been racking our brains to think of a force multiplier other than nuclear weapons. Well, I think Margolis dreamed up a conventional force multiplier. The concept of Esther’s Sling starts with…”
Zvi Avner spent the next twenty minutes explaining to the Kitchen Cabinet of Israel the plan’s conception of operations. As he spoke, expressions of surprise gave way to smiles. By the time he was done, the atmosphere in the conference room that was surrounded by reinforced concrete was electric. Cohen could not remember another meeting like this. In a room where the problems facing the State of Israel were laid out in bare detail, the feeling was that of a birthday celebration among old friends.
Ben Raibani was excited as he asked several clarifying questions. When Avner was finished, Raibani had a smile. The aging ex-chief of staff of the IDF added a simple comment. “This is brilliant. I want to meet this guy.”
“You will,” replied Cohen.
“You should put this guy under armed guard. He is the most valuable man in Israel right now.” Raibani looked at Cohen. “My apologies, Eli, but I am serious.”
“No need to apologize. I don’t disagree with you. I hadn’t thought about it, but I think you are exactly right. Zvi, can you make arrangements?”
“Certainly. I will take care of it.”
Discussions broke out among the five men around the table other than the prime minister. The excitement was igniting the thought processes of each man. Cohen’s goal of having Amit Margolis get the Yahalom Group officers to think outside the box had not worked with that group, but was doing wonders with the Kitchen Cabinet. Eli Cohen retrieved a fresh cigar from his humidor. As he prepared it for lighting, he gazed at Yavi Aitan. The prime minister needed to know what Aitan thought. Eli Cohen realized at that moment just how much he had grown to respect the mathematician turned intelligence czar.
Cohen took several puffs and then loudly interrupted everyone’s discussions. “Yavi, we have yet to hear your reaction.” The room grew quiet. Cohen realized that even the old warrior Raibani wanted to know what Aitan thought. “Please share it with us.”
Yavi Aitan pulled his seat closer to the table and leaned forward. “Well, Mister Prime Minister, I have just been thinking it through.”
“And?”
“And after thinking it through, I can see many challenges in actually pulling it off, but I have to say — and I will use General Raibani’s word — it’s simply brilliant. If we can get all of these pieces in place, I think it will work. Secrecy is paramount. If this slips out in even the smallest detail or hint, it will fail. This cannot be shared outside this room. Not with spouses or parents or even your rabbi. I am guessing this takes at least a year to prepare and the circle of people who will need to know some piece of the puzzle will grow during that year. To me, that is the challenge. Keep it secret and we achieve our strategic objective in a way that will stun the world. If the secret gets out, we will preside over one of the colossal disasters this nation has ever had to endure. In the former scenario, we are heroes and the U.S. will never be overtly involved. In the latter scenario, we will go begging to the Americans hat in hand to bail us out of disaster. I feel so strongly about secrecy that I even have my doubts about informing Director Levy.”