“I’ll see what I can do about getting that ship released,” the president’s national security adviser said. “We probably gave every Pakistani naval officer and local government official a tour of that ship already-they shouldn’t be demanding inspections.”
The president nodded. “And I want to get briefed on contingency plans in case we’re barred from Pakistani ports and airfields-how do we sustain Afghanistan operations if we can’t bring in supplies through Pakistan.” He ran a hand through his hair in exasperation. “I almost wish we let the Paks fire off another missile. Let’s get busy.”
THREE
You will soon break the bow if you keep it always stretched.
– PHAEDRUS
MINISTRY OF DEFENSE, BEIJING, PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
DAYS LATER
The conference table in the office of the minister of defense of the People’s Republic of China was strewn with black-and-white and color photographs attached to larger pieces of cardboard with descriptive notes around the edges. Nothing too terribly important-looking could be discerned in the pictures by themselves, but the minister of defense, Zung Chunxian, a sixty-one-year-old career bureaucrat with thin dark hair, thick glasses, and a thick waistline, stared at them as if he were looking at works of ancient Chinese art.
“Identification?” he asked the military officer before him as he lit a cigarette.
“We believe it was an unmanned reconnaissance vehicle, sir,” General Hua Zhilun, commander of 11th Strategic Rocket Forces of the People’s Liberation Army, replied. Young for a general officer at age fifty-three, Hua was lean, fit, and polished. He, too, wore spectacles, but he put them away as he addressed the minister. Hua was in charge of the newest division of the Strategic Rocket Forces based on Hainan Island: offensive long-range ballistic-missile forces with targets in space and at sea instead of land. “The sensor package has not yet been recovered, but I am confident that is what it is. Most certainly American.”
“Where could it have come from?”
“Most unmanned aerial vehicles today have very long-range and loiter capability, and could have come from thousands of miles away,” Hua replied, “but the shape of this one suggests it was submarine-launched. The Americans and British both employ UAVs that can be launched from submerged missile or torpedo tubes.”
“Ingenious,” Zung said. “But why use such a device over Hainan Island, when they certainly have satellites that can do a better job without fear of being shot down?”
“A satellite’s orbit and position at any given time can be predicted with high accuracy, sir, which can give one time to hide something that one does not want to be photographed,” Hua said. “Unmanned air vehicles such as this can pop up anywhere and anytime.”
“So the attack missiles on Hainan Island have been discovered?”
“We must assume they have, sir,” Hua said. “It is of little consequence.”
“Why do you say that, General?”
“The deterrent effect of the Dong Feng-21 missiles is much greater than their actual demonstrated capabilities, sir.”
“What do you mean?”
“To be quite honest, sir, the DF-21 antisatellite and antiship weapons are mostly for show as of yet,” Hua explained.
The defense minister’s eyes bulged with indignation. “Zhe shi shen-me yi-si? What did you say?”
“They are reliable and effective in their primary role as intermediate-range ballistic land-attack missiles, sir,” Hua explained, “but they have hardly been tested in their new roles. We were able to successfully intercept one satellite in a carefully rehearsed exercise with an absolutely fine-tuned weapon, but it is quite another matter to deploy a cold-soaked missile that has been in a transporter tube in a corrosive marine environment for a long period of time and have it successfully launch, track, and hit its target, even if the target is not maneuvering or dispersing countermeasures.”
“So why have we spent billions of yuan on them?” Zung asked incredulously. “Why would my predecessor agree to such a thing?”
“Because the Americans began deploying their Kingfisher antisatellite and antiballistic-missile weapons,” Hua replied, “and honored Defense Minister Chi wanted to respond in kind and as quickly as possible. We could argue that the Americans have the same problem with their Kingfisher weapon containers-space is far more hostile than salt air or terrestrial weather-but they chose to deploy them as they continue to test and upgrade them, and China had to respond in like manner.”
“So it is an empty force, a hollow threat, and a waste of money?” Zung asked.
“We really do not know for sure, sir, unless we test the systems more often,” Hua said. “But for the kind of tests we require to fully validate the DF-21 system, we need to launch at real satellites from real installations, not merely at simulated targets or on the Lop Nor instrumented test ranges. That means launching targets into orbit. My budget requested twenty million yuan per month for the next fifteen months just to test the antisatellite and antiship versions of the DF-21. It was turned down because the increased test tempo would certainly alert and possibly alarm the Americans.”
“I think that is not a consideration any longer, General, especially now that we know that Washington is stepping up deployment of those weapon satellites and being much more aggressive in surveillance,” Minister Zung said. “It will take some time to resubmit your requested testing funds, but I think this time they will be approved.” He paused for a moment, then said, “But are there other targets on which to test?”
“Other targets, sir?” Hua asked. He paused as well, then shook his head. “I know of no other suitable defunct or out-of-service satellites, sir,” he replied, “except the weather satellite we plan to use for the upcoming sea-launched weapon test. We could possibly inquire of our allies or commercial operators to see if-”
“What about satellites that are not defunct or out of service,” Zung asked, “and do not belong to our allies or ourselves?”
“Sir?” Hua was confused…but only for a moment. His eyes widened in surprise, and Zung thought he noticed the beginnings of a devilish smile on the corners of the young general’s lips. “Sir, are you suggesting…?”
“I am suggesting, General Hua,” Zung said, stubbing out his cigarette, “that if an opportunity would present itself to conduct a very realistic test of our antiship and antisatellite weapons, and if you notified me in a timely manner, I am quite certain both the Central Military Commission and the Military Committee of the Party Central Committee will approve it. Do you understand me, General?”
200 M ILES OFF THE C OAST OF M OGADISHU, S OMALIA
SEVERAL DAYS LATER
“Pan-pan, pan-pan, pan-pan,” the frantic marine radiotelephone message began on Channel 16 and 2182 kilohertz frequencies, “all stations, all stations, all stations, this is the freighter Yutian, People’s Republic of China, two hundred three nautical miles east of Mogadishu, proceeding southwest toward Mumbasa, Kenya, at twelve knots. A small motor vessel is about three miles west of us and we can see men armed with automatic weapons and RPGs on board. We believe they are Somali pirates and they mean to board this vessel. Requesting immediate assistance from any nearby Combined Task Force warships. Over.” The radio operator repeated the message, adding the freighter’s geographical coordiates.
Seventy-six miles to the north, the People’s Liberation Army Navy Luyang-class destroyer Wuhan, part of the multinational Combined Task Force-151 group of over thirty warships and dozens of aircraft from twenty-five nations, responded to the call by launching a Russian-made Kamov Ka-27 antisubmarine warfare helicopter. As part of the CTF-151 tasking, the Ka-27 had a chin-mounted sea radar and was armed with a smoke-rocket launcher on one hardpoint and a 7.62-millimeter machine gun on the other.