“The two cities I showed you in detail are almost certainly on the target list, and we’ve run through different combinations of the others to create a range of results.” He brought up a slide titled “Possible Combinations,” but Patterson caught his eye.
“Just bring up the summary, please.”
Tomasz nodded and quickly tapped the screen several times. Maps and tables flashed on the screen until he reached the summary page. The figures were stark, and almost everyone reacted with shock or disbelief. Patterson explained, “These are actually the refined results, based on guidance that I gave Dr. Tomasz last night.”
“Anywhere between two and a quarter to four and a half million souls killed, and three times that injured,” Tomasz remarked, reading the slide. “One bomb would be a catastrophe. Five would be apocalyptic. We did not calculate the effects of the fallout, tidal surges, or electromagnetic pulse both because of time constraints, and because, frankly, these initial effects are bad enough.”
The economist explained, “The human cost and physical destruction are first-order effects. I needed these before I could begin my analysis of the true impact to China.”
The next slide was titled “Economic Impact.” He spoke confidently, explaining the figures. “China’s gross domestic product was already suffering, down from seven point three trillion before the war to six point five last year. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but to an economist, that’s a strong recession and flirting with a depression. Foreign trade, exporting the manufactured goods the Chinese need to support their growing economy, was especially hard-hit. At a minimum, the destructive effects of the attack would knock at least a full trillion off of that, and probably closer to two trillion.
“That’s not just a depression. A trillion gets you a nice, solid depression, no question. But two trillion is real money. Not only would many, maybe most industries shut down, but the transportation and agricultural sectors, even basic government services, would be crippled as well. And that doesn’t include the extraordinary burden of emergency relief. A lot of people will need medical care, food, water, and shelter for a considerable period of time.”
He pressed a control and the screen shifted again, showing a map of the world with arrows linking China with the rest of the world. It was a simple enough diagram — the fatter the arrows, the more trade between the two nations.
“This graphic shows prewar trade levels.” The fattest arrows were between China and the U.S., and China and the European Union. He pressed the tablet and the graphic shifted. All the arrows shrank; the ones to Asian nations almost disappeared. “This is postwar. Some of this is political, for example Vietnam’s embargo, but most is due to China’s reduced consumption and its reduced ability to provide goods for sale.”
The screen changed again, with most arrows disappearing, and the remaining ones shrinking to mere threads. “And this is my estimate of the results of the Indian attack. China’s exports drop to about fifteen percent of last year, while her need for all kinds of imports would grow substantially. Unfortunately, she likely doesn’t have the cash reserves to pay for this increased need, let alone tackling the relief efforts.
“We’re almost certain that her reserves were virtually eliminated during the Littoral Alliance war. She’s got nothing to buy with.”
Since Patterson had seen this before, she watched the president and the others. Their horrified expressions told her they understood not only the staggering cost in human life, but the impact this would have on the world economy. The U.S. was already suffering a mild recession, partly from direct effects of their trade with China, but aggravated by the more severe economic problems Japan and the other Asian nations were suffering.
Tomasz let them absorb the data for a few moments before adding, “This slide makes several assumptions that are out of my jurisdiction. Most relate to economic behavior and would change the overall values by five or ten percent. But the biggest variable, and one I can’t predict, is the stability of the Chinese government and the maintenance of social order.”
“A revolution,” Secretary Lloyd remarked grimly.
“Anarchy,” Tomasz responded. “A weak, discredited central government without the ability to rule; in essence, a failed state. Assuming a near-complete breakdown of authority and essential services, which will limit the ability of the Chinese Army to maintain order, chaos and massive civil unrest would almost certainly occur.”
“You could have several revolutions,” Myles added. “Tibet. The Uyghurs.”
“And what happens when North Korea can’t get its food from China anymore?”
Tomasz shrugged. “It’s impossible to separate economics and politics, but I’ve learned the dangers of trying to predict events based on economic forecasts. I will say this: Based on this forecast, the Chinese would be lucky if they only suffered a severe depression, and the effects of that would be felt worldwide, including here. Just as the 1929 New York stock market crash triggered the Great Depression, China could drag the rest of the world down with it.”
“We’re too tightly connected, these days,” Myles agreed. “Knock China down and we’ll all fall over. What about India?”
“Economically, she’d be hurt as well. She doesn’t have much trade with China these days, but she does with other countries that will be affected. It’s a downward spiral for everyone.”
“India’s economic condition after the attack won’t matter,” Defense Secretary Geisler countered. “If China finds out who did this to them, they’ll retaliate with their own nuclear weapons, and India will in turn shoot back. If that submarine launches those torpedoes, we’ll have the first general nuclear exchange between the world’s two largest and oldest nations.”
“What’s worse than an apocalypse?” Myles asked to nobody in particular. He then continued, “Thank you, Dr. Tomasz and Dr. Patterson. I am declaring that stopping this attack is in the vital interests of the United States.” He took the time to look directly at Lloyd, Geisler, and Greg Alexander, Director of National Intelligence.
“Do we warn the Chinese?” Lloyd asked.
After a moment’s pause, Myles replied. “Not yet. I can imagine the Chinese reacting in many different ways, all of them bad, and any hope of working with the Indians would be gone forever. As long as that sub hasn’t sailed, it’s only a plot, and the Indians should be able to deal with it themselves. That would look better to China, when the word does get out. But SECDEF,” he turned to face Geisler, “start moving anything that would help toward the area, just in case.”
Jain wondered if this was some sort of test, intended to find out exactly how much stress he could take. He’d considered asking Mitra, but the captain either was a very good actor or, for reasons still unexplained, was serious about having Chakra leave tonight.
Everyone else in the shipyard took it seriously. Workers were feverishly preparing the submarine for departure. The reactor was critical and the last checks in the engine room were being completed, and Mitra had assured him that two tugs would be standing by at 2100 to get him under way. Trucks with stores and foodstuffs were stacked five deep on the pier, and working parties from all over the yard had been drafted into getting the provisions aboard. In fact, supplies were coming aboard so quickly that his crew did not have time to store them properly.