Samant, commanding Chakra, had encountered North Dakota as the American sub was preparing to fire two of the nuclear-tipped torpedoes that were part of the plan. Without knowing the American’s mission, Samant had done his level best to first drive off the U.S. sub, then to actually sink it. Mitchell’s sub had not only avoided his weapons, but launched the torpedoes as planned and escaped. Samant had avoided damage from the blasts only by following the American sub’s lead.
Jerry Mitchell had maneuvered his sub in a close-quarters melee that had almost resulted in a collision. Especially with what he’d learned since coming aboard North Dakota, he’d had to acknowledge that Mitchell had “won” that encounter.
Finally, Samant nodded and replied, “Your point is well taken. I may have given the technology too much credit.” For Samant, it was an abject apology. He wasn’t used to giving one, but he couldn’t stand against Thigpen’s loyalty to his captain. He wondered if Jain would have done the same thing under similar circumstances, and as soon as he thought of the question, he knew the answer was that Jain would not.
He’d never demanded or expected loyalty from Jain or any of his men, just immediate obedience, to the best of their ability. Samant knew that being a captain could not be a popularity contest, and he had always lumped loyalty into the same category.
Girish Samant would never command Chakra again, and would probably not command another submarine, but the president and defense minister had promised him a place in India’s navy. He resolved to study Jerry Mitchell’s methods. There was always something new to learn.
Samant spotted him at the same time as Lieutenant Iverson, the OOD, coming into control from forward. Iverson called, “Captain is in Control,” but softly, per Jerry’s standing orders. Anyone working wasn’t supposed to come to attention, but Thigpen stood anyway, and reflexively Samant did as well. It was Jerry’s boat, after all.
Thigpen briefed Jerry on the results of their planning. “Jain has two options in approaching the Hong Kong area, the larger Lema Channel to the southwest, or the much smaller Taitami Channel between the Dangan and Jiapeng island chains. Both are really shallow, barely one hundred feet deep, and both are busy shipping lanes. Taitami is more like a freeway in terms of shipping density, but it is the shortest route in.”
Samant pointed to the narrow Taitami Channel on the chart. “The traffic separation scheme is very compressed here, the channel is only four nautical miles at its narrowest point. It would be a much more difficult path to navigate than the Lema Channel where Jain has adequate room to maneuver and there is a greater separation between the shipping lanes.”
“But he spends more time in the really shallow water taking that route,” Jerry protested.
“That’s true, Captain, but any route Jain takes will require him to spend a lot of time in dangerously shallow water. The main advantage here is that there is a lot less traffic. You see, he has to fire from the center of Lema Channel, this is the best place given the fifty-kilometer range of the torpedo and the channel structure in the Wanshan Archipelago. By entering via the Lema Channel, Jain has to parallel this shipping lane for five miles, and only has to cross the two busiest. With Taitami, he has to run with the dense traffic for over twenty miles,” argued Samant.
Jerry winced at the thought of having to play dodgeball with a bunch of very large merchant ships for twenty miles and then squeezing through a very narrow passage. “Okay, so the Lema Channel is our best bet. What’s your recommendation for a search plan?”
Thigpen nodded and moved his finger to a dot on the chart labeled “X-ray.” “Regardless of which channel Jain actually decides to use, Point X-ray is where he will likely begin his approach to Hong Kong. This is the closest point that deep water gets to the Chinese coast. If we park ourselves about ten miles out from this spot, we can look out into deeper water, while Jain has to look into shallower water. At twenty knots, we’re quieter than Chakra, but we recommend we slow to fifteen knots — our optimum search speed. That maximizes our detection range and coverage.”
Thigpen gestured to the south through southeast, showing the different routes they’d marked as possible routes for Chakra. “The greatest unknown is of course her current position. Captain Samant and I think these are the most likely avenues of approach, based on her standard transit rates, but which route she’s using, and her progress, are just guesses. That’s a lot to bet the farm on.”
Samant watched Jerry listen to the briefing, then consider for a moment before asking, “What’s the earliest time she could be at Point X-ray?”
The XO sighed. “If she takes the shortest route, and runs at the highest possible speed, which by the way makes her towed array useless, we still beat her to Point X-ray by almost a full day. Neither Captain Samant nor I think that’s likely, because it makes them too detectable, and gives up their most valuable sensor. On the other hand, if she takes her time and tries to stay really covert, we get there about a week before Chakra does. Squadron Fifteen is going with a middle-of-the-road approach, but even so, she doesn’t reach Hong Kong until fourteen or fifteen April.”
“Why would Jain worry about being too detectable?” Jerry asked. “As far as he knows, this is a surprise attack. He’s not expecting someone to be looking for him.”
“We can’t assume that, Captain,” countered Samant. “Dhankhar was warned we were on to him before Chakra set sail, it’s likely he gave Jain instructions to be careful without telling him explicitly what was going on. Besides, Jain would inherently become more cautious the closer he got to China.”
“True, but if Jain thinks there’s a chance he could be pursued, he could push at a higher speed to try and get to the targets as quickly as possible.” Jerry straightened and turned to Samant. “Captain, how mission-oriented is Jain — compared to your average mission-oriented submariner, that is.”
Samant answered, “That may be the wrong question, Jerry. I believe Jain will do everything in his power to accomplish his mission, but only if he believes it is a legal order. Jain is extremely respectful of authority. I’m afraid he may be too willing to obey orders, without examining them critically,” the Indian admitted.
He continued, “If Jain were to hear a recall order, I believe — I want to believe — that he would obey it and return to Vizag. That’s a happy ending for all of us. I also believe Dhankhar anticipated a recall. That’s why he left our VLF station down for repairs. He’s also probably told Jain to maintain radio silence, even turn his radio receivers off, until after he’s accomplished his mission. So it’s quite probable that he doesn’t know he’s been discovered, and will proceed at a higher transit speed. But I’m also convinced he’ll slow as he approaches Hong Kong. He can’t assume the Chinese will just sit in port.”
Jerry frowned but nodded. “Thanks, Captain. That increases the chance he could get past us, which is not good.” He paused, and his expression told Samant he was making a hard decision. He’d felt the same way himself.
“We’re going to conduct our search closer to the Chinese coast,” Jerry announced. “If we put ourselves right off the entrance to the Lema Channel, we cut our search area by more than half. We know where he’s going, so let’s take advantage of it. This also allows us to keep an eye on Taitami Channel, just in case our assumption is wrong.”