Thigpen smiled and said, “Talk about a prompt jump in the pucker factor. An active sonobuoy coming from out of nowhere, those boys probably had to change their britches!”
Samant nodded; he too was encouraged by the news. “This also means Jain had to slow down. Since he knows he’s being hunted, he’ll have to reduce speed to try and stay undetected. This will make it easier for us to catch him.” The Indian then measured the distance between the P-3’s reported position and North Dakota’s at the same time. The two locations were only seventy-two miles apart. “At our present speed we can make up the distance in ten hours, perhaps less.”
“Or we could get out ahead of him,” Petrov observed, pointing to the Penghu Channel on the chart.
“I was thinking the same thing, Alex,” agreed Jerry. “Since Jain has slowed down, and probably gone to ultra quiet, our detection range will also be reduced. And if we maintain our current speed, he could pick us up first and evade. But, if we go around the west side of Taiwan, we have a shorter distance to travel and we can fly through without having to worry about being heard.”
“An old-fashioned end-around, eh, Skipper?” remarked Thigpen.
Jerry nodded. “Basically.”
“So it’s your intention to set up another ambush?” asked Samant.
“Yes, Captain. But the question that still needs to be answered is, where do we go?”
“We’re still working on that problem, Jerry,” said Petrov. Then, pointing to himself, Samant, and Thigpen, he added, “Give us a few more hours and we’ll have a recommendation for you.”
“Very well. In the meantime, XO, change course for Penghu Channel.”
21
APPROACHES
Jacobs met him at his office with a fresh mug of coffee. It seemed to Commodore Simonis that he had taken up residence in the watch center lately, and while he was grateful for a change of scene, he didn’t know if a videoconference with Captain Jerry Mitchell would qualify as a break.
To transmit a video signal, a submarine had to come to shallow depth and raise an antenna, or surface completely. Either way, he’d have to slow down, and Mitchell wouldn’t do that now unless it was important. And probably bad news, thought Simonis.
Jacobs had already set up the link, and the commodore could see Mitchell waiting on the display. He didn’t waste Jerry’s time on pleasantries. “Report, Captain Mitchell.”
“Sir, it’s our firm belief that Chakra is going to bypass Ningbo harbor altogether,” Jerry announced. “I need a new patrol box, toward the north, covering Dachu and Dahuanglong Islands.”
That got Simonis’s attention. “Explain.”
“I know you’ve looked at the approaches to Ningbo. It’s an incredibly difficult shot even for an experienced submariner. It’s very shallow water, the torpedo has to make more than one turn around islands to get to the port facility, and there’s a ton of shipping in the area, including fishing boats and now patrols. There are very few spots where he actually has water deep enough to make an approach and still be in torpedo range.”
Simonis nodded. “Concur, that’s why we’ve got you guarding the southern approach. It’s the best of Chakra’s several unattractive choices.”
“I agree, sir. It’s where I’d make the shot from, and Captain Samant thinks that was Jain’s original plan. But the situation has changed. Jain knows he’s being hunted. He wouldn’t go around Taiwan otherwise,” replied Jerry as he gestured to someone offscreen.
Samant came into view and sat next to Jerry. Simonis saw the Indian and his nostrils flared. Jerry knew his commodore wouldn’t be pleased and preempted him. “Yes, sir, I know, he’s in radio, but we really don’t have time for that. You need to hear his argument from him.”
“Very well, we’ll discuss this later. Captain Samant, would you please explain.”
“Captain Simonis, Jain wouldn’t skip Ningbo if he thought the Chinese were still ignorant of his presence. But he knows the Chinese can saturate those few spots where it’s even possible for him to take a shot with ASW assets. With an alerted defender, the risk becomes too great — indeed, it’s suicidal. I would not make the attempt.”
Simonis had just been looking at the chart of Ningbo harbor. He agreed it was a mess, but reading Jain’s intentions was a lot harder than reading a nautical chart.
“I respect your evaluation, Captain Samant, but we’ve got North Dakota’s two UUVs searching Hong Kong now, and if Jain gets by us and plants one in Ningbo…”
“Add this to the equation,” Samant replied. “He’s lost at least one day, perhaps more, because of his unexpected detour around the east coast of Taiwan. He’s behind schedule, and even though we don’t know exactly what that schedule is, it’s still there because he launched the torpedo into Hong Kong. Add to that the fact that he’s being hunted, means he can’t just rush up to the firing point. He’ll have to slow way down and thread his way through heavy shipping traffic in thirty meters of water, all the while trying to stay covert with an alerted adversary out looking for him. Even if he could do it, it’s going to take him a lot of time, much more than they probably planned for originally.”
Jerry continued, “Look at Shanghai, just to the north on the other side of Hangzhou Bay. The geography’s more amenable for making an approach, and there are actually two targets fairly close to each other. There’s the Shanghai International Port, at the mouth of the Yangtze, and the Yangshan deep-water terminal that sticks out into the bay. Shanghai International is at the top of the list due to its huge capacity, but Yangshan’s is just a little below Ningbo’s. Either one is worthy of a nuke, according to that list.”
Simonis was nodding. “All right, you’ve convinced me. He trades one high-risk, time-consuming target for one that’s not only easier to attack, but doesn’t add any time to his schedule. I’ll tell the staff to shift your patrol zone. And if Jain actually does try to attack Ningbo, the Chinese units there will have a decent chance of catching him, even without North Dakota. There are eight Yuan- and Song-class submarines at Daxie Dao alone, they will make for a rude welcoming committee.”
Jerry looked satisfied, but Samant just looked grim. Every time he used his expertise to help the Americans, he put another nail in Chakra’s coffin.
“Do you have a good ambush position in mind? North Carolina’s already up there, so I’ll make sure that your patrol zones don’t conflict.”
“Yes, sir, we do. There’s a lovely patch of water along the fifty-meter curve where we can look out into deeper water. It’s right alongside the best approach route to Yangshan. And Chakra will have to come in with her towed array stowed, which gives us a significant acoustic advantage.”
“When do you expect to be on station?” demanded Simonis.
“In about four hours, Commodore. Oh, and sir, can you please make sure the Chinese have all their submarines out of there? I don’t think you could call it a ‘blue-on-blue’ attack, but whether we shoot or they do, it wouldn’t be good.”
Simonis smiled. “Concur. I’ll make sure they’re clear.” He leaned a little closer to the screen. “And I’m giving you the hot spot, Captain.”
“Yessir, I understand. We won’t let you down,” Jerry answered resolutely.
“I’m not worried about that, Captain Mitchell, but I would appreciate it if you’d stop making my life so complicated.”