“What if the radio failed, and it could never establish communication in the first place?”
“Then it would keep going through the if-then statements until it got to the correct course of action. Tim, as a pilot, what would you do?”
Tim said, “It depends — but if all else failed, I could set the transponder to 7600 and keep making my radio calls in the blind. Then basically keep flying the approach and land on the runway and hope they can hear you.”
“And that is what the computers would have the aircraft do,” Bradley said. “It would automatically know who to talk to, what to say, where and how to fly. No humans required. And it would be taking in data from a variety of sources, including the radios. If the air traffic controller called up the aircraft and told it to turn, our computers would follow orders — as long as there wasn’t a more pressing need, like a fuel emergency. And this is just how a human pilot would behave. Right, Tim?”
“That’s the theory.”
Bradley frowned. “Tim’s a purist. He believes that all planes should have people in them.”
Tim said, “Bradley, let me ask you something. Have you ever used the voice-to-text feature on your phone?”
“Yes.”
“And did it transcribe everything perfectly? I doubt it. I once told my mom I was going to get her a birthday cake, but instead my phone told her that I got her birthday crack.”
“I understand your point.”
Tim said, “Same example — but with typed text messages — if the autocomplete feature on your phone messes up and changes what you meant to type, it might give your text message a completely different meaning. Those are two separate technologies. Voice transcription, and text autocomplete. Billions of people around the world use those technologies. Yet everyone knows of stories where they have failed, leading to unintended consequences.”
“This is true,” Bradley said. “Voice recognition is challenging. But it’s constantly improving. And your phone needs to be able to interpret anything. We’re able to cut down a lot of errors because of the standardized terminology in aviation. Pilots and controllers are expected to use precise terms and phrases.”
“My point isn’t that voice-to-text is a weak link here,” Tim said. “It’s that when you replace a complex human worker with a robot, you’re probably going to have a lot of errors that the human would never make. Because humans are critical thinkers, and we can use all our senses and experiences to help make decisions.”
Jake Flynn listened as the pilot and engineer went on arguing their points to each other. He wondered how it must feel to know that computers were about to make your job obsolete.
After a brief break, they came together again so Flynn could finish up his questions to the Fend 100 project team. It was well after business hours now, and Flynn could see that he was wearing out his welcome. “Okay, talk to me about your upcoming test flight.”
“We’re calling it a final approval flight,” Bradley said. “The type certification has already been granted by the FAA, but this is more about the contract. The FAA wants to make sure our first passenger flight goes well, and they’re going to evaluate us while it happens.”
“So if it goes well, what happens?”
“We get the NextGen contract for autonomous flight. You’re familiar with NextGen?”
Flynn shook his hand back and forth. “I’ve read about it. But refresh me.”
Bradley looked at Maria, who smiled politely. She said, “The Next Generation Air Transportation System. NextGen. It’s the new national airspace system that the United States will adopt over the next ten years. The plans will transform the way planes and air traffic controllers navigate and communicate, and the way the industry manages flights in the United States.”
“What are the major changes?” Flynn asked.
Maria looked at her watch. “How much time do you have? How about I give you the high-level version? Today the US air traffic control system primarily uses radar and radio communications. NextGen will change that to use more GPS and data transfers. It allows planes to shorten their routes by going directly to the airports, instead of using inefficient navigational beacons. The data exchanges will reduce how much time it takes to get information back and forth between the planes and the controllers. Think of it as using text messaging instead of voice communication. Texting saves time, right?”
“Right.”
“Before, controllers had to read out long chains of instructions. The pilots would then read it back. That took up a lot of valuable time. Mistakes were sometimes made. The data exchange method is quicker and more precise.”
“So that’s it? That’s NextGen?”
“There’s a lot more to it than just that,” Bradley said. “But those changes are major changes. It might sound simple, but making it happen is a massive amount of work.”
“So how does Fend Aerospace fit into the NextGen plans?”
“Many companies are part of it. I mean, it’s transforming the entire commercial aviation industry,” Bradley said. “The commercial airline industry alone is almost ten percent of the US GDP. And it’s growing fast.”
“Wow. I didn’t realize it was that big.”
“Prior to NextGen, automated flight wasn’t permitted,” Maria said. “There are still a lot of regulatory hurdles, but we’re lobbying hard, and things are looking up. As long as everything goes well during our FAA final approval flight in a few days, we think there’s a very good chance that Fend Aerospace will be the main contractor for automated flight when that part of NextGen comes online.”
“Won’t other aircraft manufacturers just make their own technology?”
“Well, that’s why this is so important to us as a company,” Maria said. “Fend Aerospace isn’t building technology just to be used in its own planes. We’re creating the hardware and software that allows aircraft to be preprogramed, and — if need be — controlled remotely. All aircraft in the NextGen Automated Flight Program would use this technology.”
Karpinsky said, “Our strategy is to own the entire autonomous flight software platform. All the major aircraft manufacturers and airline companies will become our customers. Think of the Fend 100 as our iPod. But we’re also creating iTunes. So if the FAA decides to use the Fend 100 platform, everyone will buy from us.”
Maria said, “It would be the standardized brain for every aircraft that wants to fly using automated flight in the NextGen aviation system — so all commercial flights, as well as logistics flights. Like FedEx. There are a lot of those, too.”
“So what’s the problem?” Flynn asked.
“Competition. Right now Fend has a leg up. We earned the bid for the US program. But European and Asian markets are modernizing their airways as well. Ideally, we would form the global solution. But that’s probably not going to happen. We would probably create a licensing agreement with the leading European and Asian companies to share the tech. But first, we have to prove that it can work in the US. Everything culminates in our FAA final approval flight in a few days.”
“I didn’t realize this flight was so important.”
“Oh, yes. If this flight goes well, we’ll advance to the next tranche of funding. And our fifteen-year contract with the government will go into effect. That’s everything for Fend Aerospace.”
“Let me ask you a question. What would happen if all your technologies were given to your competition? Say, through a cyberattack?”