“Morning, team,” David said as he entered the room. Nods and waves in reply. Their faces were somber. This group knew very well that American forces were now in contact with the enemy in and around Panama, adding even more urgency to their work.
The DIA analyst, PJ Everett, was their team leader. A retired Army WO5, Everett had spent six months retired before getting bored and accepting a position in the DIA, thus beginning a long and distinguished second career. He had a buzz cut surrounding a shiny bald patch, and he spoke in a deep baritone.
“Mr. Manning, we’ve identified four different COAs.” David searched his memory for military acronyms. COA. Course of Action.
“Let’s hear ’em,” he replied.
“COA 1: outproduce. Similar to the World War Two transformation of American manufacturing facilities into a wartime machine.”
“This is being done.”
“Yes, sir, that is correct.” The man was ten years his senior, and probably outranked David’s own GS rating, but he used the word sir with punctilious courtesy. A habit no doubt developed from decades of military service. “Our nation has ramped up manufacturing. Our automobile factories are now producing tanks and Stryker vehicles. Our cargo ship builders are now making warships. The same transformation has occurred with other factories, increasing our production rate of aircraft, guns, ammunition, and missiles.”
The woman next to him said, “And we’ve reinstituted the draft. That’s helped. Ramped up military personnel training and shortened pipelines.”
David could see where this was going by reading their body language and tone. “But… you are about to say that’s not good enough.”
The DIA man shook his head. “Not even close. The Chinese simply have too many men, too many factories, and too many resources. Their rare earth mines are years ahead of ours. Over the past few decades, China has become the world’s manufacturer. They have an enormous head start on us. And their capacity is unmatched. Even if we were to cut every corner and put every able-bodied American to work in our converted war factories, it still wouldn’t be enough.”
“So…”
“So, we continue to do the best we can. Following COA 1 to the best of our ability will help us stay in the fight as long as possible. But it won’t win us the war. So, on to COA 2: stretch out the invading nation’s supply chain. Are you familiar with the name Operation Barbarossa?”
David said, “Remind me. Germany invading Russia, right?”
The DIA man said, “Originally named Operation Fritz, it was the code name for the German invasion of the Soviet Union, launched in 1941. Germany attacked with almost one hundred and fifty divisions, or about three million men. It was the largest land invasion in human history.”
One of the Army officers in the room said, “Until now.”
The DIA man nodded, looking between his colleague and David. “The Chinese have just made contact in Panama. That is the tip of their spear. Behind that, we estimate nearly four million Chinese troops are already in South America. And that number is growing every day, by sea and by air. They are expending an enormous amount of money and resources transporting their army into South America. Because they know that if they do, they will be able to move north and overwhelm us.”
David said, “This is where you’re going to tell me the good news, right?”
The DIA man gave a terse smile. “Back to Operation Barbarossa. The German supply line was stretched out over thousands of miles. A subzero winter brutalized German troops, many of whom didn’t have winter uniforms. But Hitler was told that Moscow was within their reach. So, with the Führer demanding action, German tank divisions ran out of fuel trying to accomplish their mission.”
David said, “And do you see a similar opportunity for us?”
“Weather was a major factor, and we won’t have winter on the battlefield unless the PLA makes it to the continental US.”
“At which point things would likely be going downhill for us.”
“Yes. But the Chinese do require a massive supply line across the Pacific, and through South and Central America.”
“I’m familiar with this part. The Chinese have been building the infrastructure for that supply line for decades,” David said. Natesh and the other Red Cell members had reviewed the details at length. Chinese businesses, with the blessing of the Chinese government, had been investing in roads, railways, airports, and ports in Latin America for the past twenty years.
The DIA man said, “While the Latin American geography does present us with certain opportunities, we believe that cutting off their naval supply lines in the South Pacific is also an opportunity. The Chinese-controlled factories in South America won’t be enough to support their massive army. The PLA will need to bring bullets and parts from Asia.”
“Understood.”
The DIA man said, “This is where COA 1 and 2 come together. If we’re emphasizing military production, we’ve identified one conventional weapon that will be crucial to our strategy: the LRASM. The Long Range Anti-Ship Missile.”
“We’ve been using them,” said David.
“Yes, but right now we’re planning for single battles. If we are to shut down their supply lines across the Pacific, we’ll need a massive increase in production and training. And we’ll need to put those suckers on everything that can carry them. Soon.”
“Understood.” David pointed to the display map. “PACFLEET has gathered forces at Hawaii, Johnston Atoll, and Midway. But we have to make tough choices. The more of our naval and air units we place on Hawaii, the fewer we have available to support our forces in Panama, and the fewer we have to defend the west coast of the US.”
One of the military officers, a naval submarine commander named Kristopher Frigetto, said, “As far as our naval asset allocation goes, a lot will be determined over the next few days. The PLA fleet is about to make contact with our strike groups in the Pacific. If that battle goes our way, it could free up some of our ships, allowing us to advance south and disrupt Chinese Pacific supply lines.”
Everett said, “Mr. Manning, I know many of our Pentagon planners. I guarantee that they are working on this. But our military has been trained to prioritize protecting troops in combat. A lot of generals will understandably want to mass our air and sea power near Panama, to support the troops on the ground there. That may be short-sighted. We must prioritize the destruction of Chinese supply lines, even at the risk of increased near-term casualties. I ask that you use your influence to emphasize its importance.”
David nodded. “I’ll bring this to General Schwartz’s attention and explain the thought process.”
The DIA man said, “Thank you.” He turned to the chalkboard. “This brings us to COA 3: destroy China’s domestic war engine. We must go after the Clausewitz trinity. The government, the people, and the military. We must destroy their desire and capacity to fight. This is the messy part that we must talk about. The history books don’t glorify this, but the fire bombings in Japan and Germany had a major impact on the war. So did the use of nuclear weapons.”
David began to feel uncomfortable. “POTUS won’t authorize any further use of nuclear…”
The DIA man held up his hand. “I understand, and that’s not what I’m suggesting. But we will need to take steps to diminish their national will to fight. Fire bombings and nuclear weapons are horrible methods, but the psychological and physical impact is significant. At a minimum, we will need to develop a strategy of destroying China’s strengths: their domestic manufacturing capability and national will. That means bringing a large conventional fight to their turf. I understand that this could only be achieved if we first gain advantage in the Americas.”