The NSA man said, “Depends on the system, but a typical op like this takes about a week to draw up, maybe another to write. We’d have it ready for the field in three. But that’s if it’s moved to the front of the line. And I can’t speak for how we would actually get it on the Chinese network.”
“No, no, I understand,” David said. “That’s still great. Good work. Please make it a priority.”
Henry and the NSA man nodded and began whispering to each other.
David addressed the room. “Ladies and gentlemen, I applaud this progress. But this still means that we’re weeks away from a solution. Suppose China crosses the Panama Canal tomorrow? What then?”
One of the Army officers said, “General Schwartz’s plan has contingencies. American troops are massed in Costa Rica and again in Mexico City.”
David waved his hand. “I know, I know. I just mean…we’re always playing catch-up. They’re playing the long game. Even if we defeat their satellites, the US military is at a huge numbers disadvantage in Central America. We need to be thinking about what’s next. What if they breach Panama? Or Costa Rica? Or Mexico City?”
One of the Navy officers said, “If they get that far, it means we have big problems in the Pacific. It probably means the Pacific fleet has been defeated or has retreated.”
An Air Force officer said, “Even if the Panama Canal is taken, we have the Atlantic fleet, and superior air power based on the east coast of the US in reserve.”
The DIA man grunted, “Don’t be silly. China will hit that too. If they get past Costa Rica, China will have to begin launching air campaigns into the continental US. If there’s a target, they’ll go after it.”
David thought about that. If there’s a target, they’ll go after it. An idea began forming in the back of his mind.
“What if China successfully disabled our east-coast-based air forces?” he said. “If they hit our Atlantic fleet? Then what would they do, if they had that advantage?”
The naval officer snorted. “Then the east coast would be screwed. I mean, they would probably attempt an amphibious landing somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic.”
“The Gulf Coast would be easier,” someone said.
David said, “Maybe we should start making recommendations for defensive fortifications along the coast?”
“We would be in the death spiral, at that point,” an Army colonel chimed in. “Without air superiority, or a naval fleet? The reason we have a chance in Central America is because the geography limits their options to advance. But if our air power is gone, that allows the Chinese to start paradropping troops anywhere in the continental US. If they get container ships filled with troops and tanks, then we’re really screwed.”
The DARPA scientist said, “This brings us back to hypersonics. The only real way to neutralize the Chinese onslaught is to use the Rojas hypersonic technology. That’s the great equalizer. We could wipe out their advance.”
David rubbed his chin. He was right. The math was too heavily in the Chinese’s favor. Rojas’s technology could allow them to precisely hit hundreds of targets with hypersonic weapons. And it would only take a few hundred targets wiped out — radars, communications nodes, or some of their Jiaolong-class ships — to allow American air power to dominate what was left.
Henry said, “Even if you attain this mythical hypersonic weapons superiority you guys keep talking about, it sounds to me like you’ll still need to worry about the Russians. Don’t forget, they’ve still got nuclear weapons. Most of our long-range hypersonic weapons use ballistic missiles as a delivery vehicle. That still will look to Russia like we’re launching nukes. So unless they’re bluffing, which we probably won’t want to test, they would lob nuclear weapons back at us.”
The group sighed in unison. Someone threw a pen at the wall.
Henry crossed his arms. “What, I’m just saying? Pretending it’s not there isn’t going to make it go away. You need to take out the Russian nuclear threat as well. Otherwise none of this will work. Even your hypersonic weapons plan.”
The DARPA scientist said, “We can’t do that. There isn’t a viable option to eliminate the nuclear threat.”
Henry shrugged. “Why not?”
“You’ll never get all of them,” said a naval officer wearing a submarine warfare insignia. “We tried to wipe out all of China’s nukes during the opening days of the war. We launched ICBM strikes on all of their known nuclear missile sites, and we attempted to destroy all of their strategic nuclear bombers and missile submarines. But about ten percent of their force remained. There are always unknowns. And that’s just China. Now we’re talking about Russia, too? That’s significantly more targets and we have a reduced ICBM capability.”
The Air Force missile expert said, “We’re actively working on improving our missile force. We are working round the clock on that.”
The volume of voices rose as everyone began yelling back and forth.
The DARPA scientist said, “We don’t have to just use ICBMs.”
“…but what about the HGVs… those could replace the…”
“…submarine drones might do the trick if we…”
David slapped his hand on the table. “Okay, okay. Hold up.”
The room quieted.
He looked around at everyone. “What if we are able to wipe out 99.9 % of all enemy nuclear weapons?”
The naval officer said, “David, like I said, we tried. If…”
“Humor me. Hypothetically speaking, what if we were able to do it. What would be left?”
“I would say best-case scenario we wipe out about ninety-five percent.”
The Air Force missile expert said, “You know, that might be enough to get us over the tipping point.”
David rubbed his chin. “Say more.”
“This is getting into psychology here, but if we remove enough nuclear weapons from the equation, that could be the difference that causes them to rethink using them. You also must consider that all of their weapons won’t be usable.”
A Marine Corps officer and jet pilot frowned. “What do you mean?”
The missile man said, “How many military aircraft are in a jet squadron?”
“About ten.”
“And how many are flyable at any given time?”
The Marine nodded in understanding. “Maybe five or six.”
One of the civilians held up his hand. “There’s that government waste again. That’s awful. Only fifty percent are available to fly?”
David said, “No, that’s normal. These are complex machines that require an enormous amount of maintenance to keep them operating.” He turned back to the Air Force missile expert. “Let’s say we can wipe out twenty-nine hundred of the three thousand nuclear warheads in Russia’s arsenal. Talk me through it.”
“Well, we’d need targeting information. But assuming we get it and destroy the targets, maybe half of the one hundred warheads left over are usable right away. Now a warhead is different than an operational weapon. A warhead doesn’t have to be on a missile. It might be sitting in a bunker somewhere with no way to move to a target. So really, we’re talking a much lower number. But let’s say we’re at fifty surviving warheads. Of those, many might not be set up on missiles that are ready to automatically fire. They may require hours or days of preparation until they’re ready to be used.”
The Marine said, “But how could we hit so many targets so quickly?”
David said, “PGS. Prompt Global Strike. The idea is that you can hit anywhere in the world within a half-hour or so. If we can get the Rojas technology, we might be able to make it work.”
“Haven’t we been able to do that for the past fifty years, with ICBMs?”