"It was my impression, Colonel," said General Beaver, fixing Madden with a stony eye, "that DELFI had provided us with an accurate prediction--isn't that so?"
"Correct, General, up to a point."
"What . . . point?" General Beaver said ominously.
"DELFI extrapolates from data we already possess, not from hypothetical factors such as the implementation of DEPARTMENT STORE. Computer weather modeling is still an inexact science and is subject to the same constraints I mentioned a moment ago; that's to say, a lot depends on individual interpretation."
"So where does this leave us in relation to the Soviet threat?" General Smith demanded. "Can anyone answer me that?"
"Where we've always been," Madden said promptly. "Holding the balance of power."
"Explain that to me, Colonel."
"Well, sir, the Russians have Project Arrow, we have DEPARTMENT STORE. Neither of us knows what the effects might be should these schemes be implemented, and it's precisely this uncertainty that each side is seeking to exploit."
"Dammit, Colonel Madden!" General Smith exploded. "Over a year ago you and--and--" He jabbed his finger.
"Farrer," Madden supplied.
"You and Farrer stated with absolute certainty what the effects would be on the United States if the Soviets went ahead with their scheme to divert two rivers away from the Arctic Basin. Your report stated quite specifically"--he ticked them off on his fingers-- "droughts, flooding of our major coastal cities and towns, widespread crop failures throughout the midwest. Are you now saying that this isn't likely to happen?"
"Not at all, sir. Those effects were, and still are, predicted as accurately as we know how. But as Farrer has made clear, the biosphere is an extremely complex mechanism. Neither we nor the Russians knows precisely what might happen." Madden smiled blandly. "Just as no one could say with total certainty how nuclear warfare would affect the planet, General. The same applies to environmental war. It's a gamble."
"Come on, George, we knew that all along," General Stafford admonished his fellow chief of staff. "Hell, if we dealt in copper-bottomed certainties we could hook up a computer and let it make all the decisions. As far as I'm concerned Colonel Madden has laid it on the line."
"So we're back to stalemate," said General Beaver with a heavy sigh. He looked directly at the president. "Until the Soviets decide to go ahead while we're still dithering."
It seemed that the president hadn't heard, or chose to ignore, the criticism. He was watching the display, eyes half-closed. But then he said, "When they make their move we'll be ready. Mr. Zadikov assured me that DEPARTMENT STORE is superior to the Soviet threat. They know we can wipe out the biosphere any time we feel like it. And I would add that I have complete confidence in Mr. Zadikov's judgment."
Of late, Binch had begun to scour the Reuters and AP press reports that chattered off the center's teleprinter day and night. There was a pile on his desk this morning and he skimmed through them before he did anything else. It had become a kind of ritual.
His secretary, Janis Swan, poured a cup of coffee, added the three regulation heaped spoonfuls of sugar, and placed it by his elbow. She was middle-aged and unmarried, neither of which seemed to bother her. "Is the world still in one piece?" she inquired laconically.
"Just about," Binch muttered, distracted, intent on the reports.
prj217 29-0668 sa
brazil, july 14, reuter--longest drought in living memory continues in extreme south, with extensive losses to soybean, corn, and rice production.
severe flooding in minas gerais and rio de janeiro states in southeast, with estimated 6,000 homeless and many crops lost. flooding is reported along the sao francisco valley where several dams burst, contributing to height of flood. --reuter tl/sb
Drought in one part of the country, floods in another. Not unheard of, Binch thought, sipping his coffee, but not usual either. He picked up the next off the pile.
nnnnnnnn a485 14-2235 cc
china, july 13, reuter-drought from previous season
continues to affect crops in heuongjiang, anhewi, zheijang, and hupei provinces.
wuhan (central china) has received only 426 mm of rain between march and june, this being the lowest value since records began in 1880.
tornadoes hit parts of zheijang province in late june depositing hail 1 (one) meter deep in places. --reuter vn/4pp
"These really set you up for the day," Janis said, leaning over his shoulder. "Couldn't you just read the obituaries instead?" "Haven't you got anything to do?" Binch grumbled at her. "What exactly are you looking for?"
Binch slid another report in front of him, sighing. "Wish I knew."
13 july aa71256 ap
bulletin: moscow, ussr
floods caused by heavy rain have affected the don, sim, and oka basins. water levels have risen 7-11 meters and inundated 270,000 hectares of farmland, the region's worst floods in 80 years. during mid-june 450 sq km of forest and agricultural land were under water in the kiev oblast region.
the pripet river near chernobyl rayon has never been
so high during 96 years of observation.
flooding has also been reported along the volga and
yenisei rivers due to the melting of the snowpack.
this is thought to be related to an early start to
navigation on the ob and yenisei rivers following last
winter.
2197 r/tf 45-6
"Looks like the floods have it today," Janis observed. "Do you want some more coffee?"
"No," Binch said. "Thanks." He riffled through the rest of the pile, his round face set in a pugnacious expression, as if the man in the moon were scowling. Poland . . . serious flooding . . . river Warta 1.5 meters above danger level. France . . . wettest spring and summer on record. India . . . snow and hailstorms . . . one thousand five hundred people and four thousand cattle dead. Indonesia . . . torrential rain brings floods . . . seventy people reported killed by landslides . . .
It suddenly occurred to him that he was acting just as Brad Zittel had. Looking for signs of catastrophe and finding them--as of course you could if you surveyed the world at large.
But his concern was real enough. Frank Kollar's program for DELFI had revealed a new and disturbing trend. Based on existing data supplied by WIMP--the World Integrated Monitoring Program--the computer had forecast a specific, discernible decrease in atmospheric oxygen by the year 2006.
At first Binch had been skeptical. The predicted deficiency was only a couple of percentage points, and it was assumed that DELFI wasn't accurate enough to predict minor fluctuations so far in the future-- seven years being a long time in computer weather modeling. So initially he had noted the oxygen decline without becoming too alarmed by it. After all, the computer's forecast of a 2.19 decrease was within the permitted margins of error. No, he couldn't accept it.
Two weeks later Frank came back with more figures. He'd taken the projection beyond 2006 and what he'd found was a nightmare.
The curve rose steeply until by 2016 the oxygen decline was over 4 percent. By 2031 it had decreased a further six points--which meant that the oxygen content of the atmosphere would be only about half of what it was today: 10 percent as against 20.94 percent. Clearly, as Binch realized, this couldn't be interpreted as a statistical error or a freak climatic anomaly. On the basis of the best evidence currently available, DELFI was predicting a significant alteration in the composition of the earth's atmosphere.