‘What if they fire their first couple of missiles at one target and then take their missile launcher with them to some pre-stashed missiles at a property or a vehicle parked near to their next target?’ added Rafi.
‘So we could have ten targets!’ whistled John. ‘Flaming heck! And if they had access to the roof of a suitably located property, they’d have a great launching pad!’
‘Or if a vehicle is involved, a nearby property would be useful to keep it out of sight prior to an attack,’ added Emma.
‘OK then… I suggest we look for ten targets and scale the number down only when we have conclusive proof,’ said an agitated Kate.
‘I have been making progress on the property front,’ said Rafi. ‘The mortgage register of PREH gave us an interesting set of addresses. Emma has chatted to John’s team who have been helping us rule out the true investment properties. We are left with our original four properties as possibles for the terrorists to use: Peterhead, Hartlepool, North Walsham and Prestwick.’
‘Now for the clever bit,’ said Emma. She was standing next to a large, touch screen monitor which Greg had set up.
‘First, let’s put up a map of the UK and add on to it the four suspect properties.’ Emma tapped the LCD screen, highlighting the four locations with bold blue crosses. ‘We can now add an exit port where we know there is one of their trawlers.’ As if by magic a little icon depicting a trawler appeared next to Peterhead.
‘I’m still working on where the other trawlers are. However, I have done some work on the location of our major energy installations.’ She moved back to her PC and, with several clicks of her mouse, a mass of coloured dots appeared on the screen.
Rafi let out an appreciative whistle.
‘To make life easier I’ve colour-coded them,’ said Emma. ‘The green dots are for major gas and oil plants, red dots for the nuclear powers stations, the large red blob is for the Sellafield reprocessing facility in Cumbria and, lastly, the numerous black dots are the oil, gas and coal fired power stations.’
John swore. ‘Bloody hell! I didn’t realise that there were so many of them.’
‘Absolutely,’ replied Emma. ‘But I reckon we can safely remove the black dots. The fossil fuel power stations, whilst large, aren’t in the same league as the others.’
A couple of clicks later and the black dots disappeared from the screen.
‘What precisely are those dots close to the four properties owned by the terrorists’ PREH?’ asked Kate.
Emma pointed at the screen. ‘Peterhead is between the vast gas facility at St Fergus and the main North Sea oil pumping station at Cruden Bay. The Hartlepool property – here,’ Emma tapped the map, ‘is right on top of a nuclear power station. If we go down a bit, the North Walsham property – here,’ Emma tapped again, ‘Is next to the huge gas terminal at Bacton and just down the coast is Sizewell nuclear power station. And, over here, Prestwick is only twenty miles from Hunterston nuclear power station.’
‘Phew!’ exclaimed Aidan under his breath. ‘What percentage of our gas supply comes through St Fergus and Bacton?’
‘I guess around thirty to forty percent,’ replied Emma.
‘It’s highly inelastic,’ said Aidan. ‘A shortfall of just ten percent would cause problems; thirty would be catastrophic – sections of UK industry would have to shut down. There would be electricity blackouts; the financial markets wouldn’t like it at all, sentiment would be hit and the falls could be dramatic. On top of this, crippling the North Sea oil pumping station would shut down the oil refineries it serves, causing considerable knock-on effects.’ Aidan looked worried.
John looked thoughtfully at the map. ‘If we added this up, what would we have?’
‘Potentially six substantial energy targets, of which three are nuclear,’ replied Emma frowning. ‘The bad news is, if you look at the screen, there are a number of other possible targets.’
‘Oh my God! It’s like looking for ten bloody needles in a frigging haystack if you ask me,’ said John.
‘I’ve got a question.’ Kate was looking worried. ‘How does the nuclear fuel travel to and from the power stations and the reprocessing units – and how often?’
‘By train,’ answered Emma, rummaging around for some paper on her desk. ‘Ah, yes, here it is. The trains average one round trip a week.’
‘Do any of them by any chance go near London?’
‘Yes, the Sizewell train does,’ answered Emma. She flipped through her notes. ‘It uses the North London line from Stratford round to the marshalling yards at Willesden Junction, before going on to Sellafield.’
‘Next question,’ said Kate. ‘How robust are the canisters that carry the nuclear fuel?’
Emma looked through her paperwork. ‘It says here that their design and specification have been certified by Government experts.’
‘Does this include the ability to withstand state-of-the-art missiles, like the Kornet missile that our terrorists most likely have?’ continued Kate.
‘Their thickness is…’ Emma looked for the figure. ‘Yes, 900 mm – about three feet.’
‘Could a direct hit penetrate a canister?’
‘Yes, I reckon so,’ replied Emma slowly, looking at Kate to see if there was yet another question winging her way.
‘And a glancing blow would probably ricochet off?’ added Kate.
‘Probably,’ replied Emma, uncertainly. ‘However, the experts who determined the safety specifications don’t seem to be worried. Somewhere it says that – Ah yes! Here it is – the worst radioactive release following a terrorist attack is calculated to be only 0.0024 of one percent of the nuclear waste escaping as particles capable of being inhaled. Each canister contains three and a half tonnes of spent nuclear fuel.’
Emma paused. ‘So by my calculations their figures point to only 0.1 kg of nasties being released, which they think isn’t too calamitous. And as I read them, the reports don’t consider there to be a remote possibility of a successful missile attack. What scares me,’ continued Emma anxiously, ‘Is that I reckon the contents of each canister contains about a quarter of the fallout from Chernobyl and spent nuclear fuel is around a million times more radioactive than the uranium initially sent to the nuclear power stations. I know they say it’s as safe as houses, but if a terrorist were to…’ her voice trailed off.
The uneasy silence was interrupted by John. ‘The question that the terrorist leaders would have to ask themselves is: how easy would it be to hit a moving canister accurately? And are the odds ones that they would be prepared to gamble on? Having said that, a successful attack at Willesden would have a devastating impact on north London.’
‘I suggest you put Willesden marshalling yards on your map,’ said Kate.
‘John’s got a good point – nuclear power stations seem more likely targets, don’t they?’ said Emma sifting through a pile of papers. ‘And I’ve browsed through the reports from the House of Commons and the Mayor of London’s office, which have looked at the issue of nuclear waste transport. Neither is best pleased with the nuclear cargo going through London, but they both conclude that the canisters are safe – as advised by their experts.’
‘For the time being, let’s focus on key oil and gas plants, the nuclear power stations and reprocessing plants,’ said Kate. ‘Excellent work Emma.’
‘I have been thinking,’ said Aida. ‘Hypothetically, let’s say Hartlepool nuclear power station was compromised following a terrorist attack and shut down due to radiation leaks. Public opinion could easily swing against all things nuclear. If nuclear power became politically unpalatable and phased out sooner rather than later, the Government would get hit with a bill of, say,?75 billion for the radiation clean-up and decommissioning costs. If at the same time a couple of large gas plants were to go out of action causing power cuts and if their public sector outsourcing business went belly up… A tipping point would be reached and the UK financial markets would be pushed over the edge.’