Kate scratched her head thoughtfully. ‘Let us suppose that Sheikh Tufayl is good for?2 billion; his cousin Maryam and Jameel, via their client’s moneys, could be good for another?1 billion each and murky third parties put in another?1 billion. If this?5 billion is placed in the futures and traded options markets, and the terrorists get their way, what would their profit roughly be?’ She looked at Aidan and Rafi.
Aidan spoke first. ‘Conservatively they could make eight times their initial outlay; at the top end maybe fifteen times. Do you agree, Rafi?’
‘Yes,’ he replied.
‘So in round terms the financial markets could be hit with losses of?50 billion,’ calculated Kate and after a brief pause continued, ‘at which point several banks and insurance companies would get into trouble and the Government would have to step in again!’
‘Yes, it would be very seriously,’ added Aidan.
‘Thank you – I just wanted to be clear,’ said Kate.
Jeremy hurried back into the office and updated the team on MI5’s progress. ‘Neil Gunton’s team is working at full throttle. And on the charity front, things are looking promising. It seems that they use just one travel agency – Fly Skywards Travel. I’m shortly off to pay them a visit.’ He looked thoughtful. ‘And we’ve identified who Khalid and Yousif were.’
Kate looked at him blankly.
‘Sorry – the people to whom the PhD dissertations were dedicated: Khalid and Yousif were the sheikh’s older brothers -cousins of Basel and Maryam. They worked for the family oil company. To cut a long story short, it seems that they were in Iraq discussing oil deals in mid-January 1991, just as Operation Granby got into full swing.’
Rafi looked puzzled. ‘Operation Granby?’
‘It was the code name for the British bombing missions. Anyway, it seems an unguided 1000 lb bomb went astray…’ He paused, ‘A large house was demolished. Khalid and Yousif were inside and were killed,’ added Jeremy.
‘Why didn’t we hear more about it?’ asked Rafi.
‘According to MI6, as collaborators helping the Iraqi regime with black market oil sales, their family probably feared what the Americans might do, if they made a real fuss,’ added Jeremy.
Kate looked serious. ‘So our terrorists have a strong motive for revenge!’
The buzz of Jeremy’s brief visit had gone. Rafi was sitting at his desk. He was tense, his wrist throbbed and his lower back ached. He felt awful. The lack of sleep had suddenly crept up and overwhelmed him.
John finished his phone call, walked over and pulled up a chair next to Rafi. ‘Are you alright?’
Rafi gave a small nod.
‘I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I’ve had a call about Callum’s funeral. It’s at 2.30 p.m. tomorrow in Clifton, outside Bristol. Kate has suggested that we send some flowers via the undertaker. We obviously can’t say that they’re from you. How about a card with something like: Thank you for your friendship and help. Is that alright with you?’
Rafi sat there feeling miserable and nodded slowly.
‘We have his parents’ names and address should you wish to write or visit them when this is all over.’
He wasn’t one for tears, but in his tiredness they welled up. There was nothing he could do to stop them. John briefly placed his arm across Rafi’s shoulder as a gesture of comfort.
Rafi drew a long breath and looked up to the heavens as if to seek divine inspiration. How can we sort out this horrendous mess? he wondered.
But then a sudden tranquillity came over him. It was as if Callum was in the room alongside him. Rafi’s mind cleared – they needed a game plan to stop the adverse effects of the attacks on the financial system. And for that they would need three things: a huge pot of money, a group of people to whom the Treasury and the Bank of England would listen, and a… Kate called over interrupting his train of thought.
‘If you have a spare moment, could you see if you can find another property? We’re still a couple of targets adrift.’
As if from nowhere, a possible solution flashed through his mind. His tiredness evaporated. Rafi felt calm, collected and strangely on top of things. He called out. ‘Everyone! Do you have a moment? Can we go somewhere quiet to get away from the phones, please? I need to run through an idea.’
‘Let me finish this call and I’m there,’ said Emma.
John nodded, indicating he would be there as soon as he, too, had finished his call.
Kate put down her phone. ‘We can use the meeting room down the corridor.’
John walked into the meeting room just as Kate had started to quiz Rafi. ‘Why the meeting?’
Rafi started explaining, hesitantly. ‘We’re piecing together some of the locations of the terrorist attacks and hopefully we’ll soon have a good enough picture to stop much of what they are planning. What’s been worrying me is their assault on the financial markets. Their two sets of plans are intertwined. What scares me are the consequences of one or two missiles getting through and hitting a nuclear facility. The loss of life and the long term radioactive pollution would not only be tragic, but would also dent public confidence. The clean-up costs alone could run to billions, plus there would be huge decommissioning costs… Aidan, how big a pot of money do you think that the Government might need to sort out their financial problems if things get really bad? And how much could they take on without spooking the markets?’
‘Answering your first question: how long is a piece of string? It could be anywhere between…’ Aidan hesitated and the room fell totally silent. ‘Let’s say in excess of?75 billion as a ballpark figure. It could easily be more. Answering the second part of your question, in the present environment, I reckon?25 billion.’
John looked perplexed. ‘But hasn’t the Government recently borrowed hundreds of billions of pounds without any difficulty.
So why can’t it do it again?’
‘There comes a point when investors will simply take fright and walk away,’ replied Aidan. ‘The Government’s annual borrowing requirement is currently running at around?200 billion. And they have been using quantitative easing to sort out their short-term funding needs…’
John still looked perplexed.
‘We are talking in terms of the straw that breaks the camel’s back,’ added Rafi. ‘It’s all about market sentiment.’
John shrugged his shoulders.
‘OK, look at it this way,’ said Aidan. ‘The terrorists have set up a three pronged attack. They want to hit our economy where it hurts – by creating major energy shortages and electricity blackouts… Crashing the stock market… And forcing the Government to borrow lots more money.’
John cast a serious look at Aidan. ‘So, unless we stop them… things will go pear shaped?’
‘Yes, and once things start to go wrong for the country’s finances, things will rapidly get worse. The Government’s credit rating and investor sentiment will plummet. And in no time at all there will be many more sellers than buyers of Government debt.’
‘Could the country go bankrupt?’
‘Probably not, but if the big investors stopped funding the UK’s vast borrowing requirement, then it would get really messy…’
‘Could I interrupt?’ asked Rafi. ‘There may be a way…’
‘Pardon?’ enquired Kate quietly, as though suspecting Rafi had flipped under the strain. Her eyes still had a sparkle to them and looked at him caringly.
‘Well,’ said Rafi, ‘it’s all about finding another source of money. A few minutes ago you mentioned property – as I was thinking about Callum. He’d been visiting a specialist property investor before he was killed. So who’s the biggest owner of property and tangible assets in the UK?’
‘The Government, the public sector and its various agencies,’ replied Aidan. ‘I recall from a recent article in the financial press that they have assets worth over?500 billion.’