Ewan looked at the PM. ‘In addition, there would be a feelgood factor from the news coverage following their capture. However, our priority is to scupper their plans and then apprehend them.’
Kate spoke up. ‘The four Chechens are dangerous killers. If they were cornered in a public place, it could get very messy and the collateral damage could be large. If we follow them, we can pick them up well away from innocent bystanders. I should make it very clear that we would only wish them to be allowed to escape to the trawlers if and only if their Kornet and Vektor weapons are out of action.’
The PM thought carefully about what she had just said. ‘My last question is: could you please explain your fears relating to the financial markets?’
Rafi glanced at Kate and Aidan. They nodded at him. ‘Could I answer that one, please, Prime Minister?’
‘Yes, go ahead.’
Rafi thought for a moment about where it would be best to start and eventually decided to start at the beginning, with the description of their three PhD theses. ‘John and Jeremy discussed the ringleaders’ academic work with a senior lecturer who was a contemporary of theirs – he described their dissertations as being incisive and of exemplary standard. However, to quote him: If one puts them together, they are the instruction kit for building a financial atomic bomb.’
The PM shifted uncomfortably in his chair.
‘Sheikh Tufayl is conservatively worth $10 billion,’ continued Rafi. ‘Jameel Furud, through his control of Prima Terra, has around ?30 billion of funds under his management; Maryam has, we estimate, a similar sum under her control. While Talal, in contrast, has used the sheikh’s money to build up the terrorist infrastructure. They have billions at their disposal, and intend to use it to wreck the Government’s finances.’ He stopped for a moment, letting the point sink home. ‘The terrorist activities should be viewed in the context of the continuing uneasiness in investor sentiment. Their ultimate aim is to trigger another stock market crash, which will enable them to make massive profits from their positions in the derivative markets.’
Rafi stopped and looked around the table to check that the guests had taken on board what he’d been saying. ‘Aidan has been doing excellent work on the scale of their intervention into these derivative markets.’ He leant forward and looked past Kate at Aidan.
‘Prime Minister; in a nutshell, if they achieve their ambition they’ll saddle the derivatives markets with losses in the region of ?50-100 billion,’ added Aidan. ‘I have identified a sufficient number of contracts to confirm the scale of the numbers involved.’
The Prime Minister looked at Rafi and then at Aidan. ‘Well, there is a simple answer: we close down the market and unwind the positions in the derivative contracts.’
Rafi looked at the PM. ‘Might I enlarge, please?’ he enquired politely.
‘Yes,’ came the slightly clipped reply.
‘Also the terrorists have identified a number of areas where Government guarantees exist. Their aim is to bring billions of pounds of debts and liabilities back on to the Government’s balance sheet. For example, by attacking nuclear power stations – there will be colossal clean-up costs, plus the likelihood of large accelerated decommissioning costs. Then there will big costs to stop the outsourced public sector services, that they control, from collapsing. Against the backdrop of a stock market crash, this would put the weakened Government finances into a perilous position,’ concluded Rafi.
‘This all seems rather far-fetched if you ask me,’ commented the Defence Secretary. ‘My view is that the greedy bastards want to make a financial killing, nothing more nothing less. Let’s stop the trading in the contracts that Aidan has identified and get on with catching them.’
The PM looked at Aidan and Rafi. ‘Do you believe that the Government’s finances are in peril?’
‘Yes, sir. These terrorists aren’t just financially astute and used to dealing with huge sums of money; they are also exceedingly devious and clever. They are determined to inflict as much damage as possible. It is as if they have declared war on our economy.’
Rafi sensed that the Defence Secretary disagreed. ‘In the short time available to us, we’ve looked at the two most obvious derivatives contracts and can confirm that they have built up big positions. I strongly believe that they will have also been trading in Frankfurt and Chicago. It would be nigh on impossible to unwind the myriad of positions they, and possibly their associates, have amassed.’
‘This is bloody preposterous!’ burst out the Defence Secretary. ‘This is all too much. You’re exaggerating – trying to play things up for your own self-importance! Have none of this Prime Minister – get on and stop the terrorist attacks. We can let the Treasury and the Bank of England sort out the financial problems next week, as and when they occur.’
Meanwhile, Aidan was doing an excellent impression of a boiler building up a head of steam: his ears had gone red and his eyes had narrowed. He was close to telling the Defence Secretary exactly what he thought of him.
‘Do you have a solution?’ asked the Prime Minister.
‘We believe that we do, sir,’ replied Rafi. ‘All we ask is that the authorities don’t procrastinate. We’re drawing up a detailed report for the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Board of the Bank of England as to how these financial problems can be contained. We would like to put these proposals in front of them as soon as we know how bad, or otherwise, things are going to be. In light of the impending attacks it’s our suggestion that the London financial markets do not open tomorrow. This will give us…’
‘That is exactly what I suggested!’ burst out the Defence Secretary.
‘Not quite,’ Aidan added quietly. ‘Your suggestion was to unwind the terrorists’ derivatives positions; ours is to close the markets for a day to give us time to counter their financial attacks. What we have to avoid is procrastination; if the markets pass the point of no return, I’m absolutely certain that financial Armageddon will become an unstoppable reality.’
The Prime Minister looked perturbed.
The Air Chief Marshal spoke. ‘Prime Minister, might I make a suggestion? I hear what our friends here have been saying. As I see it, they are experts in their field and we’re not. If what they say is correct, it could have damaging consequences that far outweigh the physical damage that the terrorists might inflict. Without a prosperous economy and a fully operational banking sector our democracy would be undermined. Let us focus on stopping the terrorists – their missile and suicide bomber attacks – but at the same time run with Mr Khan and Mr Gilchrist’s assertions and get the experts and the top decision makers at the Treasury and the Bank to consider their grave predictions, as soon as practical.’
The PM nodded. ‘Thank you, Sir Nigel; that makes good sense.’
The commissioner cast his eyes in Rafi’s direction. ‘You had something else to say, I believe?’
‘Not more pessimism!’ exclaimed the Defence Secretary in an irritated tone.
Rafi smiled. ‘No sir, actually some good news for once. If we can stop the markets from falling and hold long interest rates where they are until, say, the middle of next week, the terrorists’ positions in the derivative markets will become untenable. Their margin calls will become larger and larger, and they will be financially wiped out. This will eliminate several billion pounds from their coffers, damage many of the shadier banks and set back the terrorist cause by months if not years.’