"Inevitably, Admiral Costigan started taking some heat. CENTCOM is furious right now, as are the Joint Chiefs. JOINTFOR's decision to override the outcome of the war games puts the U.S. military in a bad light.
However… the White House and SecDef both are supporting the admiral in announcing the success of Millennium Challenge."
"Wait a second, sir," Stewart said, alarmed. "You're saying there's some sort of power struggle going on with the Joint Chiefs on one side and the President on the other?"
"Well… no. I wouldn't call it a 'power struggle,' exactly. But there's some nasty political infighting going on between the various departments concerned. General Taylor wanted to sack Admiral Costigan… but SecDef intervened and reversed the decision."
"Sir, just how does this involve the Ohio?" He didn't add that, as a naval officer, his oath was to the Constitution, and his loyalty to the President, as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.
"Ohio is sailing into a trap, Captain."
"Come again?"
"The Iranians know what really happened during Millennium Challenge. They know about the controversy right now between CENTCOM, the Joint Chiefs, and the White House. And they know Admiral Costigan's career is on the line right now. They may think we're in enough disarray that we'll back down if we're confronted."
"Are we?"
"No. But this, ah, disagreement at high levels makes us look pretty bad. It could lead to a… miscalculation. You're going to have to watch your step over there."
"I'm not about to issue any press releases, if that's what you mean."
"That's not what we're concerned about. Captain Stewart, this is off the record… but right now the United States and Iran are very close to open war. Technically, the first shots have already been fired."
"The SEAL op near Bandar Abbas."
"Yes… and also the attack on the Ohio."
Stewart was raising his mug to his lips, but that stopped him. Careful, he set the mug down again. "I had assumed," he said carefully, "that that attack was carried out by al-Qaeda, or by a domestic group supporting them."
"That's what the FBI report says. Have you seen it?"
Stewart shook his head. "No, sir."
"There's a copy in with your orders. Classified 'secret.' There were five men on that boat that attacked you. Four were KIA. The Coasties were… a bit zealous, let's say.
"The fifth man was wounded, but we took him alive. Under questioning, he admitted to being Savama."
"Iranian Intelligence?"
"Yes. We've known for a long time that there're a number of Iranian sleeper agents in the United States. There's no way we can deport them all."
"Of course not." It was the single major disadvantage the United States faced in domestic terrorism. Attempts to identify possible terrorists on the basis of nationality or ethnicity constituted profiling, and were both illegal and futile. Most Iranians living in the United States were peaceful, law-abiding, and — insofar as many had fled the theocracy of their homeland — even enthusiastically pro-American.
All U.S. law enforcement could do was watch… and wait for the next attack.
"Three of the men on that boat were al-Qaeda fighters," Brady went on, "two Saudis and a Pakistani. The other two, including the prisoner, were Iranian. Entered the U.S. six months ago, seeking asylum. We think they're part of a cell operating out of Seattle. We also think that Tehran may know Ohio's mission, which is why they targeted her. If they don't know, they've taken a damned good guess."
A disturbing, dangerous thought. "That's why all the security on the pier outside?"
"Security levels on all military bases worldwide have been elevated," Brady said, "but, yes. In part."
"I also find it interesting that there were Iranians, Saudis, and Pakistanis all working together."
Brady nodded. "We've been seeing a lot of that in al-Qaeda. The common fight against America overrides the factionalism, Shi'ite versus Sunni. That's what Tehran is counting on, of course."
Iran was predominantly Shi'ite Muslim. Both Saudi Arabia — the birthplace of bin Laden and al-Qaeda— and, to a lesser extent, Pakistan, were Sunni, a particularly vicious and fundamentalist brand of Wahabi Sunni belief. Since Shi'ite and Sunni tended to consider one another heretics, getting them to work together could be a problem.
But al-Qaeda appeared to be pulling it off.
"Now, we're not going to go to war because these creeps took a shot at you, Captain," Brady went on. "For one thing, we don't want Tehran to know we captured one of their people. For another, Tehran would just deny the connection, and the media — especially Al Jazeera and the rest of the Islamic news media — would accuse us of using or even staging a minor terrorist incident as an excuse to invade Iran.
"And so we want you to use extreme caution when you enter the Gulf, Captain. Tehran is going to be looking for an excuse to provoke an incident… something like the Sirocco sinking, but bigger."
"Why, sir? What's it going to buy them?"
"A victory. A propaganda victory if they can't beat us in a face-to-face showdown. They're trying to maneuver themselves into a win-win situation. If they provoke a confrontation, and we back down because we can't get our own act together, they look like heroes to the whole damned Islamic world. If they provoke us into attacking them, into an overt act of war, they don't have to win. Not if the whole Islamic world turns against us because we were clearly the aggressors."
Stewart shook his head. "Admiral, this is way outside my area of expertise. I'm a ship captain, a submariner. I do not set policy."
"Of course not. But you'll still be the sharp end of the stick out there, Captain. The sinking of the Sirocco has people dancing in the streets in Tehran right now, burning American flags and daring us to fight them. So far as they're concerned, they just won their biggest victory since Desert One."
"Okay… I follow that, sir. They want to provoke us into hitting them first, so they look like the good guys to the rest of the world." Stewart shrugged. "So… why should we give them the ammunition? Why not just sit back and let them stew? We don't have to give them what they want."
"Because we don't know what those excavations outside of Bandar Abbas are. We don't know if it's some sort of NBC facility… or a long-range missile battery that would command the straits. We think they're about to try something big, but we don't have a clue what that might be.
"And so Ohio is going to do what she was designed to do. She's going to slip inside Iranian territorial waters without being detected and put a SEAL team ashore. And if you get caught, Captain Stewart, you could be providing them with the excuse they're looking for. Ohio could be the trigger for the world's next big war."
Stewart made a face. "Pleasant thought."
"Indeed. And here's another one. Our best intelligence analysis of Iranian intentions suggests two possible options for them. One… they arrange a confrontation, we back down, and the Fifth Fleet leaves the Gulf voluntarily. If that happens, Iran becomes the naval power in the region, and would immediately gain control over the oil shipment routes through the straits."
"I can't see us giving that to them. And their other option?"
"They move to close the Straits of Hormuz, and trap the Fifth Fleet at Dhahran. If they can isolate Admiral Costigan, Millennium Challenge might become something other than a war-game simulation. The Fifth Fleet could be wiped out for real."
"Jesus! And they think they can actually pull that off?"