Swords pointed out that Donald Keyhoe had mentioned the existence of the Estimate a number of times and was told that it was a myth. According to Swords, "The famous Armstrong Circle Theatre fiasco of 1958, where Keyhoe was cut off in mid-sentence, was partly due to the fact that he was about to mention this document."
After Vandenberg "batted" the report back down, after the staff was reduced, and after the fire went out of the investigation, Project Sign limped along. It was clear to everyone inside the military, particularly those who worked around ATIC, that Vandenberg was not a proponent of the extraterrestrial hypothesis. Those who supported the idea risked the wrath of the number one man in the Air Force. They had just had a practical demonstration of that. If an officer was not smart enough to pick up the clues from what had just happened, then that officer's career could be severely limited.
Project Blue Book files show this to be the case. When Sign evolved into Project Grudge and then into Blue Book, a final report about Sign was written. Those inside Sign originally believed that UFOs were extraterrestrial until Vandenberg said he didn't find their reasoning adequate. Then, those inside Sign, those who were left, decided that other answers must be the correct ones. UFOs, flying saucers, were not extraterrestrial.
A report entitled, "The Findings of Project Sign," was eventually written. It outlined the motivation behind Project Sign, who the players were, and then the results of their research. In the "Summary," it was noted that the data in the report were "derived from reports of 243 domestic and thirty (30) foreign incidents. Data from these incidents is being summarized, reproduced and distributed to agencies and individuals cooperating in the analysis and evaluation… The data obtained in reports received are studied in relation to many factors such as guided missile research activity, weather and other atmospheric sounding balloon launchings, commercial and military aircraft flights, flights of migratory birds, and other considerations, to determine possible explanations for sightings."
The authors of the report wanted to make the situation clear. They wrote, "Based on the possibility that the objects are really unidentified and unconventional types of aircraft, a technical analysis is made of some of the reports to determine the aerodynamic, propulsion, and control features that would be required for the objects to perform as described in the reports. The objects sighted have been grouped into four classifications according to configuration:"
"1. Flying discs, i.e., very low aspect ratio aircraft.
"2. Torpedo or cigar shaped bodies with no wings or fins visible in flight.
"3. Spherical or balloon-shaped objects.
"4. Balls of light."
The authors reported that "Approximately twenty percent of the incidents have been identified as conventional aerial objects to the satisfaction of personnel assigned to Project 'Sign' in this Command. It is expected that a study of the incidents in relation to weather and other atmospheric sounding balloons will provide solutions for an equivalent number… Elimination of incidents with reasonably satisfactory explanations will clarify the problem presented by a project of this nature.
"The possibility that some of the incidents may represent technical developments far in advance of knowledge available to engineers and scientists of this country has been considered. No facts are available to personnel at this Command that will permit an objective assessment of this possibility. All information so far presented on the possible existence of space ships from another planet or of aircraft propelled by an advanced type of atomic power plant have been largely conjecture."
They provided a number of recommendations, writing, "Future activity on this project should be carried on at the minimum level necessary to record, summarize, and evaluate the data received on future reports and to complete the specialized investigations now in progress." They then add a phrase that too many UFO researchers have overlooked in the past. They write, "When and if a sufficient number of incidents are solved to indicate that these sightings do not represent a threat to the security of the nation, the assignment of special project status to the activity could be terminated."
This is a theme that would be repeated in one official UFO investigation after another. They would mention this aspect again and again. Each of the investigations, from Sign forward, had national security as its main concern. If national security wasn't threatened, then the question of reality became unimportant. And, as time passed, it became more likely to all those military investigators that no threat to the nation was posed.
The authors also wrote, "Reporting agencies should be impressed with the necessity for getting more factual evidence on sightings such as photographs, physical evidence, radar sightings, and data on size and shape."
The conclusions of the report are interesting. "No definite and conclusive evidence is yet available that would prove or disprove the existence of these unidentified objects as real aircraft of unknown and unconventional configuration. It is unlikely that positive proof of their existence will be obtained without examination of the remains of crashed objects. Proof of their nonexistence is equally impossible to obtain unless a reasonable and convincing explanation is determined for each incident."
They then write, "Many sightings by qualified and apparently reliable witnesses have been reported. However, each incident has unsatisfactory features, such as shortness of time under observation, distance from observer, vagueness of description or photographs, inconsistencies between individual observers, and lack of descriptive data, that prevents conclusions being drawn."
This one paragraph would also become important in understanding the UFO investigations of the future. Time and again those in the government would suggest that there were no good photographs, that eyewitness testimony was unreliable, and that the sightings were of nothing more spectacular than a fuzzy object in the distance. Those arguing against the reality of the phenomenon would often make these same claims.
The reason for the recommendation for a continuation of the project had nothing to do with research into phenomena. The authors write, "Evaluation of reports of unidentified objects is a necessary activity of military intelligence agencies. Such sightings are inevitable, and under wartime conditions rapid and convincing solutions of such occurrences are necessary to maintain morale of military and civilian personnel. In this respect, it is considered that the establishment of procedures and training of personnel is in itself worth the effort expended on this project."
About a year earlier, the personnel assigned to Sign had concluded that flying saucers were extraterrestrial. Now, using the same cases and the same evidence, those who survived at ATIC were claiming that there was nothing to the UFO phenomenon. More importantly, they were saying there was no threat to national security, but that the project should be continued for training proposes.
On December 16, 1948, just a year after its beginning, Project Sign became Project Grudge. With the new name came a new attitude. All reports were investigated on the premise that they were simply misidentifications of natural phenomena or aircraft, or they were outright hoaxes. Flying saucers didn't exist so there could be no proof found they existed.
Just a year later, on December 27, 1949, the Air Force announced that Project Grudge, the official investigation into the flying saucer sightings, was being closed. The final report would be available to reporters as soon as it was completed.
That final report contained the cases studies of 237 of the best reports. A number of experts, including Dr. J. Allen Hynek, were able to explain some of the sightings as astronomical phenomena. Captain A.C. Trakowski, of the Air 'Force's Cambridge facility, reviewed the various balloon records to determine if sightings could be explained by balloons. It was an in-depth study.