"Well," Howard said, "sure I have. I guess everyone knows it’s basically a policy of containment. We don’t like them, but we have to admit they exist, we have to live in the same world with them. All right, let’s find a way of doing it, while at the same time keeping our guard up and letting them know we’re ready for them. That’s been our policy."
Quinten looked at him thoughtfully. "And how have we pushed that policy through?"
"Economic aid to the under developed countries. Military aid to Europe. Military strength of our own sufficient to deter any large scale aggression. In the main, it’s worked out."
"You think so? Listen, Paul, you don’t kid yourself. It’s failed. It’s failed economically. We poured billions out in aid. Russia watched us doing it, and smiled. In a lot of countries we managed effectively to destroy colonialism. But we didn’t supply a political dynamic sufficiently strong to hold off the Communists as well as replace the colonial systems we helped to end. Very often — as in China — the money and goods we sent simply helped to make the rich much richer, the poor much poorer. Because we failed to appreciate that while big business can maybe help to run a highly developed and educated country, it doesn’t mean a thing to the peasants of a backward country.
"So what happened? We preached plenty for all in a few years. The Communists simply promised an extra bowl of rice a day immediately the people had overthrown their rulers. An extra bowl of rice can be understood simply. A favourable economic balance created through a hydro-electric scheme that will take six years to complete, cannot. All right, so they’d have got their hydro-electric scheme, and they never have got their extra bowl of rice. So what? The peasants live at starvation level, like they’ve always lived. If they grumble, they’re shot. There are plenty of them to spare, and now the Communists have taken over there’s an efficient system of control and suppression. Short of a major war, their rulers can never be deposed. Since the war a dozen countries have gone Communist. Name me one that’s shaken off Communism."
Howard said, "General, I realise that. But I think it’s an over-simplification of the issue." He noticed that Quinten was flushed, and there were beads of sweat on his forehead.
"I know. But it’s a fair assessment of what’s happened. We’ve failed militarily, too, because we were outguessed all along the line. When we were thinking in terms of A-bombs, Russia thought in terms of bayonets. There were plenty of those available. They implemented the first part of her plan. Unless I’m wrong, the second part was due to be implemented very soon now.
"You see, the Russians had one tremendous advantage. They could set a definite date when they would launch their final bid for world domination. In 1945, that date was twenty or more years off. They planned accordingly. They had bayonet power, but little else. All right, let bayonet power gain as much as it could, then hold what it had gained until the time came for the final blow. They figured correctly that the Western countries — particularly ourselves and the British — were tired of war. We wouldn’t fight a major war over the Balkans, or the Baltic States, or even China. Those countries went under. They had minor setbacks. In Korea, for example. But the first part of the plan succeeded, and bayonet power did it for them. When bayonet power was no longer effective, they called a halt until they could replace it with something else. By that time, they didn’t think it would be too long in coming.
"The German rocket experts gave them their first breakthrough. A handful of spies gave them their second. "Their planners decided that war would be possible from about 1960. Maybe a little earlier if they skipped a generation of weapons. They did just that. Do you follow me’?’
"Not altogether," Howard said. "They aren’t the kind of people to take military risks. Why should they risk skipping a generation of weapons?"
"No risk," Quinten said sharply. "No risk at all. We’ve told them loudly enough and often enough we’ll never attack them first. The Rockefeller report drew attention to that, as well as the enormous advantage they gain from it. Remember what it said in 1958? That unless present trends are reversed, the world balance of power will shift in favour of the Soviet bloc. It also said the Soviet’s greatest advantage is that the Communists, by their very nature, are ready to strike the first blow. They need only prepare for the way they intend to fight. On the other hand, we must be on the defensive and gear our planning and procurement against any possible form of attack at any possible time. When the first two Russian satellites went into orbit the writing was on the wall. They passed us."
"Ours didn’t lag by too much. A matter of months only."
"But months are important. I want you to understand that, Paul. As the destructive potential of weapons has increased, so the margin of retaliatory time has decreased. Russian I.C.B.M. sites fully operational even two days before their counterparts over here, can win the war. That’s where the Russian planning has been so good."
"Not with some of SAC airborne, it’s not so good."
"I don’t agree. Sure they’ll get hit, but how hard? Understand, I don’t think the margin of superiority will rest with them long. Maybe two or three months while their sites are operational and ours are not. The short period still to run before NORAD can effectively track their missiles coming in and give us time to fire off ours and get SAC off the ground. But that’s what they’ve planned for. Even a two week magin of superiority would be enough. Maybe two hours. That’s why war’s too important to be left to the politicians now."
Howard lit a cigarette. He pondered on what Quinten had been saying. Militarily, it made sense. If you could produce a heavy enough initial blow, the chances were you would win. Your weapons had enough sheer brute power in them to swamp opposition. But who could say those weapons would be used? Where did the strictly military line of capability end, and the political line of probability start? He said, "So they could hit us, and they could take us out. If we accept that, we still have to ask whether they’d do it. And if they would, then why."
"First, yes they would," Quinten said crisply. "And second, because only then can they achieve world domination. That’s their real purpose. Nationally speaking, it’s nothing new. Czarist Russia was essentially expansionist. And the nature of a people doesn’t change overnight, even if the politicians can’t see it that way. They’re after nothing less than world domination. For the first time they have the chance to achieve it militarily. Their lead in rockets has given them the chance, but it won’t last very long. You think they’ll let it slip away from them? From sentiment, maybe? Or humanitarian feelings? Or a belief it’s wrong to kill? You really think that?"
Howard shifted uncomfortably. Damn it, Quinten was utterly convincing. Yet he knew the reasoning was wrong somewhere. There had to be a fallacy. If you are dedicated to the principle of non-aggression, you cannot just discard the principle on a theoretical assumption. He said, "General, you forget one thing. We’ve sworn to defend a way of life that gives every man the right to live without fear of attack. I agree with lots of what you say about Russia, and the Russian leaders. But you won’t justify killing millions of ordinary people, who just want to live their lives, because you have an idea their leaders are going to attack us. That way you put us in their class. You put us among the monsters, the animals in the jungle."
"I’m glad you mentioned that. But remember the jungle isn’t of our making. You know, when I was a kid I used to read a lot. Anything I could lay my hands on, we didn’t have too much money for books in my house. I had nine or ten books which were my own, and I read them over and over. Among them was the Jungle Book. Rudyard Kipling. You ever read it?"