“But they can’t justify taking and holding Korean territory, at least not easily in this day and age, and we can cause problems for them as well.” Carter said the last part in a very positive way. Turning, he looked at the unit status board and pointed. “What are the Nineteenth and Twenty-Seventh doing?”
Both squadrons were equipped with F-22 Raptors and had been among the first reinforcements the Seventh Air Force had received, along with a flock of transports and aerial tankers.
“No changes, General. Rotating escorts for the E-3C AWACS and E-8C JSTARS aircraft, four reconnaissance sorties later today, and the rest on standby.” With total air superiority, the Raptors had little to do, but that could all change quickly.
“Reinforce the escorts from pairs to four-ship formations, and have the rest of the aircraft in the squadrons come up to alert plus fifteen at 0900. Send that out now, then tell the mission planning cell to double the escorts on all missions that will be anywhere north of Kaechon at 0900 or later.”
Tony made notes as the general spoke, nodded, and then simply looked at his boss.
The general was apologetic. “I’m sorry, Saint. I can’t tell you much, but you might want to look up ‘horizontal escalation.’ And between now and then, you and I are going to sit here and think of every dirty trick the Chinese could play on us, and what we can do to stop it.”
The wall behind the news anchor displayed a map of the South China Sea, framed by China on the north, Vietnam to the west, the Philippines to the east, and Malaysia far to the south. The blue oblong was dotted with small islands and archipelagos, and on the network’s map, two of the islands, both in the east near the Philippines, were highlighted by glowing red boxes. Insets showed close-ups of a triangular atoll and US warships steaming in formation. A scrolling banner across the bottom of the page read, “Naval Confrontation in the South China Sea — US and China Ready to Fight?”
“We’re breaking into our evening coverage to tell you about this latest development in the ongoing faceoff between China and the United States. Only hours after Beijing flatly refused to discuss their advance into the former North Korea, US Marines landed on a small island, not really even an island. It’s a tropical atoll called Scarborough Shoal, after a British ship that ran aground on it in the late 1700s.
“US Navy warships showed up early this morning local time and began escorting Chinese-flagged fishing boats out of the area. Those that refused were boarded. The ‘Notice to Airmen and Mariners’ posted by the US government declared an exclusion zone around the entire area while the US and Philippine Navy conducted ‘joint maritime security operations.’” The anchor read the text verbatim, but without any understanding.
“With us this evening is Dr. Eric Anderson from the Naval War College, a widely published expert on China and the long-running South China Sea dispute, to put this action in context.”
Anderson was slim, well dressed, and evidently used to being interviewed. He didn’t waste time or words. “The waters around Scarborough Shoal are being heavily fished by the PRC, Taiwan, and the Philippines. The atoll lies 530 miles from the nearest Chinese territory, and 130 miles from the Philippines.
“The exclusion zone bars other ships, including Chinese and Taiwanese vessels, from the area, and will allow the Philippine fishermen to operate without fear of harassment by the Chinese Coast Guard or other PRC paramilitary ships. That’s been a real problem for them.”
He paused for a moment. “It’s a minor economic hit for China, but a big boost for the Philippines, an important American ally in the region.”
The anchor asked, “Is there a lot of fishing around the Spratly Islands, where the second exclusion zone was declared?”
Anderson nodded. “Some, and also the possibility of oil or mineral deposits. They’ve never been properly explored or developed because China, the Philippines, and others have been squabbling over them for decades.
“Lately, China’s been expanding the islands in the Spratly archipelago, adding airstrips and radar stations in what the international community calls ‘disputed territory.’ Beijing is trying to claim squatter’s rights, but that only works if the other side, like the Philippines, is weaker.
“The US is guaranteeing that the Philippines will have full access to the resources in those two areas while shutting the Chinese completely out. It shows that America, which so far remained impartial in these territorial disputes, will now come down hard on the side of its allies. It also reminds China that the US Navy is still…”
The anchor held up a hand while she listened to her earpiece. “Dr. Anderson, my producer says the Chinese ambassador to the UN has just released an official statement. He’s sending it to me now.”
She turned to read the flat-screen display to one side. After a moment she reported, “It’s not very long. They condemn the ‘unlawful seizure,’ and so on, then say they will not be intimidated, and threaten ‘grave consequences.’”
Facing her guest, she asked, “What do you think that means, Doctor?”
“It means we’re playing on a different level now.”
President Wen asked the question flatly. “How much more do we stand to lose?”
The foreign minister, already apologetic, answered, “I can’t say, Comrade Chairman. We didn’t believe the Americans would react that strongly, or quickly. My analysts are studying US official statements and other sources, trying to understand what they missed.”
“Maybe the US president has been reading Sun Tzu,” added Defense Minister Yu. “Our possessions in the South China Sea were vulnerable. They used them to send us a message.”
Wen responded, “A message, a reminder, or a threat?”
“That depends on how we wish to view it,” the defense minister answered. “But the Americans don’t want to fight us any more than we want to fight them.”
“But they are fully involved now, as you correctly predicted they would be. But with the fall of Pyongyang and the surrender of KPA units to ROK or US forces, the situation has changed, and not to our advantage.”
The defense minister reminded them all, “This isn’t about that capital or the Korean People’s Army; it’s about nuclear weapons in the former DPRK. We haven’t found any in the territory we’ve occupied — none. And we’ve heard nothing from the Americans or the South Koreans, so it is likely they haven’t found any either.”
“Comrade Chairman, our troops are near Dong-an and Yak-san, only ten kilometers from the Yongbyon nuclear facility. Our best chances of finding nuclear weapons is there. We must seize the facility before we even begin to consider a cease-fire.”
“Even if it means firing on South Korean forces, General?” asked Wen. “The intelligence reports suggest the South Koreans are now supporting the former KPA units, providing them with provisions and ammunition. What if our soldiers come in contact with ROK Army units? Are we now to engage them as well?”
“If we move quickly, that may not be necessary, Comrade Chairman,” answered the defense minister. “The advance of US and ROK army forces has slowed, due to the need to organize and supply former KPA units. If we get across the Chongchon River, and then stop, establishing a defensive line from the coastline through Anju to Tokchon, we maximize our chances of finding the nuclear weapons, while minimizing the possibility of an altercation between our forces and the Americans and their ROK ally.”