Although there are those who were clearly in Roswell in July 1947 who say that nothing happened, they aren’t the men in the key positions with one exception (and I should note here that the exception was not in Roswell on the critical days). That the pilots assigned to the various squadrons didn’t know what was happening at the higher levels isn’t surprising. What is important here is that the men who should have known, the Adjutant, the Intelligence Officer, the Operations Officer did know and confirm something stranger than a Mogul balloon fell.
We can add other witnesses who are credible such as Jesse Marcel, Jr., who saw and handled the debris. There is Bill Brazel who saw the markings on the ground, namely the gouge, and who handled small parts of the debris. Sallye Tadolini, the daughter of Marian Strickland, who handled a piece of debris that Bill Brazel had found. There is former 509th sergeant, Robert Smith, who helped load aircraft with crates containing the debris, who saw a small bit of foil from the wreckage. Frankie Rowe, who skeptics ignore, who saw the foil the State Policeman had.
We can talk of a long list of people who ran into the military cordon around crash site including young William Woody, radio station owner Judd Roberts, CIC Master Sergeant Lewis “Bill” Rickett, and a dozen others. Even if the crash had been one of the Mogul balloons, there wouldn’t have been the extraordinary effort to retrieve the debris and keep civilians away. In other cases, the balloons were left where they fell and might still be out there today.
The Ugly
The Air Force, the skeptics, the debunkers, and quite a few people who never bothered to look at all the evidence, believe that Project Mogul is a viable explanation for what crashed at Roswell. Overlooking the fact that the Air Force tried to palm off this explanation, here meaning a weather balloon, withinhours, that they have come up with more ridiculous explanations for the Roswell debris, and forgetting that balloons of any sort don’t really explain the case, does Project Mogul make any sense at all?
First it must be remembered that the Air Force claimed that Launch No. Four, made on June 4, 1947 is responsible for the debris. They imply in their report that these balloons were something special. In fact, polyethylene, a material that was developed for constant level balloons might have fooled some of the less sophisticated witnesses because of its very nature, the descriptions of debris provided by the eyewitnesses suggests it was not polyethylene. However, the records show that the first of the polyethylene balloons was not launched until July 3, 1947 and therefore couldn't have been responsible for the material found on the Brazel (Foster) ranch.
Balloon Launch No. 4, according to the diary kept by Dr. Albert Crary, Project Mogul leader, was made of a cluster of regular meteorological balloons made of neoprene. It did contain a "sonobuoy" or microphone, but no "official" record was kept because no data of scientific importance was recovered. Charles Moore (one of the project engineers) said that he believed they had lost track of Launch No. 4. near Arabela, New Mexico which is twenty or thirty miles south of the Brazel ranch site. Unfortunately there is no documentation to support this claim.
The other important point, though the Air Force doesn't make it clear, is that there was nothing special about the balloons in Launch No. 4. There was nothing on it that would fool anyone. They were standard weather balloons, about 15 feet in diameter, and made of neoprene. Neoprene that, after exposure to sunlight, would turn from a tan to a black and begin to rapidly disintegrate. The black color wouldn't be uniform. The portions directly exposed to sunlight would blacken faster than those in shadow. The point is that the rubber reacted to the heat and light from the sun. Attempts to cut it, or to burn it, would have been successful. And surely someone, if not Marcel himself, would have recognized the material as having come from a neoprene weather balloon.
But what is important here is that the only documented record for Flight No. 4 mentions exactly what it was and there were no rawin targets on it to create the metallic debris. Dr. Crary's diary suggests that the first flight containing an entire array wasn't made until June 5 and that debris was recovered east of Roswell.
The Air Force maintains that the balloon laid in the field for more than a month. The Roswell Daily Record, on July 9, suggests that Brazel found the balloon first on June 14, ten days after the launch, but left it there for another three weeks. What the Air Force failed to mention is that in another article published on the same day, in the same newspaper, it was suggested that “The weather balloon was found several days ago near the center of New Mexico by Rancher W.W. Brazel.”
The Air Force also implied that the reason there was a cover up was to protect Project Mogul. While the project itself was highly classified, the balloons, rawin targets, and other equipment were not classified. There was little of intelligence value to be recovered by Soviet agents if they knew that balloons were being launched from the Alamogordo Army Air Field.
In fact there was so little of importance attached to the balloons that a story about them was published in the Alamogordo News on July 10. If Soviet agents were interested in Mogul and balloon launches, that article provided more than enough clues. There are photos of the balloon clusters, but more importantly, Watson Laboratories and some of the men involved in those launches were mentioned. The mission, of course, was not, but the fact there was a story at all tells us everything we need to know about the project.
Had what Brazel found been nothing more than an experimental balloon, there would have been no reason for the elaborate events that took place around it. Brazel would have recognized it and disposed of it without having to consult the local sheriff or the military at the Roswell base. This is especially true if Bessie Brazel is to be believed. She claimed they had picked it all up.
If it was only a balloon, as Sheridan Cavitt claimed, why didn't he mention it to anyone, saving the 509th from the embarrassment of announcing they had a flying saucer, only to have that statement challenged by the officers at the Eighth Air Force?
There is one other piece of evidence. Brigadier General Arthur Exon reported that in 1947 he had the opportunity to fly over the impact site and debris field. He said, "It was probably part of the same accident but there were two distinct sites. One, assuming that the thing, as I understand it, as I remember flying the area later, that the damage to the vehicle seemed to be coming from the southeast to the northwest but it could have been going in the opposite direction, but it doesn't seem likely. So the farther northwest pieces found on the ranch, those were mostly metal."
His testimony corroborates two sites, the orientation of those sites, and effectively eliminates Project Mogul. There is no way for Project Mogul to create two distinct sites that are part of a single event. Nor is there any way for Project Mogul to create the gouges mentioned by General Exon in other conversations. Weaver ignored Exon's testimony because of the damage it does to the Project Mogul theory.
In fact, the GAO, in their review of the situation for Congressman Steven Schiff examined the Air Force position and found it inadequate. The GAO report said, "The Air Force report concluded that there was no dispute that something happened near Roswell in July 1947 and that all available official materials indicated the most likely source of the wreckage recovered was one of the project MOGUL balloon trains."