Nine right hands were solemnly raised high.
“No choice,” said General Scannell. “Absolutely no choice.”
“Okay. Now today’s the twenty-fourth,” said Arnold Morgan. “That means we have forty-seven days to get things into line. I suggest we invent some forthcoming fleet exercises in the Atlantic and start getting ships at least on standby for deployment. I presume the Middle East is sufficiently quiet for us to move the Carrier Groups into the Atlantic without causing a huge amount of fuss? Alan?”
“No problem.”
“Good. Now perhaps we should hear the preliminary plan I understand Alan and Freddie have been developing for the past couple of days…”
Admiral Curran handed out a single sheet of paper to each man. Then he told them, “As a submariner, I have been asked to explain the first part of the plan before I turn things over to Admiral Dickson. I am sure you know there are innate difficulties in conducting underwater hunts with submarines because of how they are apt to shoot each other if we’re not damned careful.
“My recommendation is we take a ‘box’ 500 miles north to south, running up and down the La Palma coastline, by 500 miles west out into the Atlantic. That’s a colossal area of 250,000 square miles, and from somewhere in there, we expect the Barracuda to fire her missiles at the cliff.
“It is not impossible that she could fire from even farther west, perhaps up to 1,000 miles out from La Palma. But I personally doubt that. Her Commanding Officer will know we’re out there in force looking for her, and will probably be keenly aware of our excellent surface-to-air missile defense systems and probably will not want to have his birds in the air for too long.
“If I had to guess I’d say he’ll launch from under 300 miles from the La Palma coast. But we cannot take that chance. We need to cover the outer limits of his range.”
“How many missiles do you think, Freddie?” asked Arnold Morgan.
“Possibly twenty SLCMs, to be sure of knocking the cliff down. Unless he goes nuclear. Then he’ll only want two.”
“Can he go nuclear?”
“I don’t think so,” interrupted Admiral Morris. “Simply because I can’t imagine where he’d get ’em. They have to be especially fitted for the Barracuda, and the Russians are not about to help him to that extent. They won’t even admit selling the Barracuda to anyone except China. And the Chinese will not even admit to owning it.
“Certainly they are unlikely to admit compliance with a bunch of terrorists trying to wreck the East Coast of the United States of America. The Chinese might be cunning and they might be devious, but they’re not stupid.”
“They might be able to buy ’em at that place in Bosnia,” said Arnold Morgan. “But I’d be surprised if a European country would agree to that, especially one in NATO, or the EU.”
“How about North Korea?” said Admiral Morris.
“Possible. Though I’m not sure if they have developed the sophistication to build a nuclear-headed missile that would fit into a big Russian submarine.”
“Let’s hope not,” said Admiral Dickson. “But I guess in the end it doesn’t matter where they got the warhead. We have to stop it, whether it was made in Korea, Belgrade, or Macy’s.”
“Okay,” said Arnold, “let’s hear that outline from Freddie on the deployment of the fleet.”
“We’ll definitely need to use a ‘box’ system for our submarine force,” said Admiral Curran. “And my recommendation is, we form a screen from the 500-mile mark moving inshore to perhaps 300. Each one of fifteen boats taking a square of around 40 miles by 40 miles, each of them with a towed array, trying to pick up every sound in the water. Altogether, that should take care of an area of 24,000 square miles.
“My personal view is that the Barracuda will not hang around in the ocean west of La Palma, firstly because he’ll guess we’re in there, thick and fast, and secondly, because he’ll be coming in from farther south and may have a great distance to cover at a slow speed. Our best chance is to catch him coming in, though I have no real confidence he’ll make the kind of mistake we need to detect him.
“I then recommend we take five more submarines and position them in boxes 40 miles long, right inshore. The water’s very deep, and there is just a chance the Barracuda will move in quietly at night in order to launch with a visual look as well as the GPS.
“I do not say this is any more likely a scenario than any other. But it would be ridiculous to have our defensive screens way offshore, while our enemy creeps underneath us, in two-mile-deep ocean, and opens fire from close range, giving us restricted time to set up for the intercept.”
General Hudson apologized but requested permission to interrupt, reminding the group that there plainly had to be a Patriot missile-shield positioned at the top of the cliff, and around the rim of the volcanoes. “We can only hope he launches something that flies high, rather than a sea skimmer,” he said. “Just to give us a real shot at it.”
Admiral Curran nodded in agreement. He suggested the submarine force should answer directly to SUBLANT headquarters, wherever that might be. It was becoming ominously certain that they were looking at a general evacuation of all Naval and Military command posts on the East Coast of the U.S.A., as the October 9 deadline approached.
Adm. Alan Dickson very briefly discussed the deployment of the surface fleet, recommending that another eighty ships would be required for the offshore vigil that might save the East Coast. “We’re looking at a force of maybe forty frigates — modern missile ships with towed arrays — listening in the water throughout that central area between the two submarine forces.
“We’re talking maybe a 200,000-square-mile patrol area with eighty ships — that’s 2,500 square miles each, a 50-mile-square box — and they’ll search it end to end, night and day, waiting for the intruder. If he’s good, we may never hear him. If he’s careless, just once, near any of our ships, he’s rubble.
“If the meeting agrees, we’ll begin work on the defensive layout right away, and we better start moving ships into the area from the Middle and Far East.”
“I agree with that,” said Arnold Morgan. “But I remain concerned about the time frame, and I remain concerned about Hamas watching our activities at the bases around the Gulf over the next couple of weeks.
“If they see we are doing absolutely nothing in response to their evacuation demand, they might just get frustrated and whack the cliff, or somehow up the ante. I’d like to try and avoid that.”
“You mean, start moving stuff as if we’re obeying them?”
“So far as I can see,” said Arnold, “that’s the only chance we have of buying time. If they see we’re reacting to their threats, they may be happy to give us more time. And we need time. A defensive operation like this needs all the time it can get.”
“Sir,” said Lieutenant Commander Ramshawe. “I wonder if I may ask a question?”
“Sure, Jimmy, go right ahead.”
“Do you think these jokers will attempt to bang some high ordnance straight into the cliff and knock it into the sea, or do you think they’ll try to bang a couple of big nuclear warheads straight into the Cumbre Vieja volcano, blow it wide open, and let nature take its course with the steam blast?”
“Good question,” replied the Admiral. “In the normal way, I’d say any terrorist in that situation would want to fire in a missile, hit the cliff, and bolt for freedom, from maybe 300 miles offshore.
“But this bastard’s different. We believe he’s an expert on volcanoes. Option two — hitting the crater — will take much longer to develop, and it is more difficult to execute, but it’s also more deadly. Altogether a more awesome and terrifying project. I think he’ll go for Option Two. He’s not afraid of difficulty, and he’ll try for maximum effect.”