The launcher crews and site-defense force walked beside the cars as they deployed. The attention of the security men focused out to meet any potential threat, that of the missile men turned inward toward their deadly charges.
The train braked to a halt, its engine powering down to an idle. The security troopers pivoted and dropped to one knee, assault rifles at the ready. The launcher crews held at parade rest, grimly awaiting the orders that would send them into action.
They would wait in vain for the next fifteen minutes. The air horns blared again. The switching engine revved up to power and, like a crayfish returning to its hide, the missile train reversed slowly back into its cavern.
The last of the launcher crew followed it into the tunnel.
The doors closed behind it. The Nationalist nuclear-deterrent force had just executed its first mission.
27
“So,” General Ho said slowly, “what the Nationalists claim is true. They have nuclear armaments.”
“I am authorized to verify that fact,” Van Lynden replied.
“Between ten and twenty of your major cities and military installations have been targeted. I am also authorized to state that their ballistic-missile delivery systems have been hardened and camouflaged to the point that they would be immune to any first strike launched by the People’s Republic.”
The Red General gazed silently out across the expanse of Manila Bay, his eyes narrowing. The two men had returned to the bench at the base of the fountain where they had met previously. Van Lynden had requested this off-the-boards meeting prior to the start of the day’s round of crisis reduction talks.
“This is madness,” the Chinese officer hissed.
“I agree,” Van Lynden replied levelly.
“Do the Nationalists think that these bombs of theirs will deter us from using our own?”
“Will they, General?”
“I don’t know.” Ho covered his face with his hands wearily. “I honestly do not know, Mr. Secretary. As the conflict within my nation has grown, my government has come to look upon our stock of nuclear armaments as the final and ultimate insurance of our survival.”
He dropped his hands to his lap and straightened again.
“How they would react should that final reed be broken, I cannot say.”
“Survival is the point here, General,” Van Lynden insisted. “We are no longer talking about the survival of a government here. This situation is escalating to the point that we are talking about the survival of your population. We are now looking at a MAD scenario. Mutually Assured Destruction! Neither side can possibly want that outcome!”
Ho did not answer, and Van Lynden groped for another angle of attack.
“Could it be, Genera], that we have a balance of power established here? Could this provide common cause for both sides to seek a compromise?”
The general shook his head. “Mr. Secretary, compromise would assure our destruction as surely as the Nationalists’ bombs. Each day this rebellion is allowed to continue, our control over our people erodes like a handful of sand held under a stream of water. Plurality is not acceptable to the leadership of my government. To accept the Nationalists and the rebels as our equals would be to acknowledge them as our masters.”
“Maybe that should be telling you something, General.”
Ho paused for a long moment, then nodded. “Perhaps so, Mr. Secretary. But I am not one of those who will make these decisions. Nor will my opinion likely be asked.
“I am a warrior, and I understand the principles of war: the taking and defending of territory, the enforcement of political will. But we are rapidly passing beyond warfare now. We are entering into an area of hatred and revenge and despair that is perhaps even beyond the rule of logic and self preservation. The Nationalists and the rebels must understand this. As I have said before, they are the ones with the options.”
“What if they don’t see it that way, General?”
“Then you had best have escape aircraft standing by to evacuate your Embassy personnel, Mr. Secretary. The radioactive fallout here in the Philippines will probably be quite severe.”
28
“We have identified a total of six firing batteries,” Lane Ashley reported. “Two missiles each, for a total of twelve rounds.”
“Are we certain that’s it?” President Childress inquired grimly.
“We think so, sir, at least as far as their IRBM force goes. The Nationalists seem to have deliberately let us have a look at them. They ran them out of their concealment points during one of our reconsat overpasses.”
“They wanted us to be able to verify that they actually have a nuclear-strike capacity,” Harrison Van Lynden added.
The secretary of state was attending this crisis-group meeting via a telecommunications channel, his image filling a flatscreen display on the inner wall.
The president massaged his temples. “All right. Let’s define this capacity a little further. Do we have any performance estimates on these things? Throw weight? Megatonnage?”
Sam Hanson nodded from his chair. “What we’re seeing here is a derivative of the Israeli-designed Shavit launch system. That, in turn, was a derivative of the Israeli Jericho II theater ballistic missile equipped with a second stage. Lift weight to orbit is about three hundred and fifty pounds. Suborbital is still going to be less than half a ton.
“Our nuclear-ordnance people at Sandia Base project a warhead in the Hiroshima range. Ten to twenty kilotons. Not what we would consider a strategic weapon, but drop one in on a city and you’d still make a pretty good mess out of the place.”
“Accuracy? Range?”
“In terms of accuracy, like I said, they are probably good for city busting. As for range, we think they can currently target just about any point within Red territory from Taiwan.”
“God damn.” President Childress slammed his palm down onto his desk. “God damn! Where in the hell do the Israelis think they can get off selling strategic-strike technology like this!”
“Sir, I’ve already had my people check into that,” Van Lynden replied. “Nationalists purchased two Shavit prototypes plus the production rights and design schematics for the system during your predecessor’s administration. State approved the sale, as did the United Nations inspectors. The Shavit is a recognized satellite launch vehicle and has been used as such by several third-world states.”
“Unfortunately, sir, this is a classic example of swing technology,” Lane Ashley added. “Just as an insecticide plant can be used to produce nerve gas, a satellite booster can be used to deliver an atomic weapon. It’s a fact we have to live with.”
“Damn, Lane, how did they get the assembly of this system past us?”
The NSA director shrugged her slim shoulders. “Ninety percent of the components were probably lifted stock off of the Nationalists’ booster production line. Likely they just listed them as being quality rejects.
“The launchers and launch vehicles were probably modularized and assembled right in the firing bunkers. Until they were rolled out, there wasn’t anything for our reconsats to spot. It’s the same kind of meticulous planning that we’ve been seeing from the Nationalists throughout this operation.”
Sam Hanson grunted an acknowledgment. “A year or two back, when they first started using the Shavit, the Taiwanese reported a couple of failed satellite launches with the booster. Those might have actually been ranging tests for this IRBM version.”