“Okay, then, they not only have the system, but they’ve proved it as well.” Childress rose from behind his desk and paced a few steps across the room’s dark-blue carpeting. Abruptly, he looked up and into the videophone monitor.
“Harry, is there any chance that this is going to make the Communists pull their horns in a little?”
Twelve thousand miles away, Van Lynden shook his head.
“It doesn’t look promising, sir. I’ve talked off the record with one of the senior members of the Red delegation. The indication that I got from him was that the Reds might very well prefer a nuclear exchange rather than to accept a total defeat.”
Sam Hanson cut in. “Sir, with the sailing of the Red boomer, I think we can take that as a given. They are planning to use the bomb. Within the next twenty-eight days, there is going to be a nuclear war.”
On the videophone, the secretary of state looked up sharply. “Twenty-eight days? Where does that come from?”
“Submerged duration, Harry,” Sam Hanson replied, slouching back in his chair and interlacing his fingers over his stomach. “Our Ohio-class boomers routinely deploy for sixty days and can stretch out to one-twenty, if necessary. A Russian Typhoon or Delta can do thirty with a stretch-out to forty-five. A Xia can stay out thirty days at the most, and it sortied two days ago.
“The Communist naval bases are all within strike range of Taiwan. The Reds have got to know that the Nationalists are bound to go after that sub with everything they’ve got the second they get a fix on it. That boomer is dead if it goes home again. They’re in a ‘use it or lose it’ scenario. You don’t need a computer to figure that one out.”
“We’re already seeing a major retasking of Taiwanese naval forces,” Lane Ashley added. “All of their submarines and the majority of their large surface units appear to be initiating antisubmarine operations within the East China Sea. The Nationalists are going after the Red missile boat with the bulk of their available ASW assets. And, Mr. President, it might solve a lot of problems if they find that submarine too.”
“Go on,” Childress said.
“We have run model analyses of several different potential scenarios for a Red Chinese nuclear first strike. In every instance, the warheads aboard that Xia SSBN have been the key to an effective strike. Eliminate them, and the scenarios fall apart.”
“The Communists have other nuclear arms, Lane,” Van Lynden commented from the telescreen.
“Yes, Harry, they do. But not many, and they can’t be sure of their delivery systems. The Nationalists have air superiority over their held territory. It’s questionable if the Reds could get airdropped bombs through to any critical targets.
“The Nationalists are also fielding both the Patriot and the Arrow battlefield antimissile systems. That could limit the effectiveness of any strikes launched by the Reds using their short-range, Scud-type artillery rockets.
“Those sea-launched IRBMs with their big one-megaton warheads are absolutely critical for any successful strike template that the Communists might develop against the Nationalists. Without them, the Reds would come way out on the losing side of any exchange. It would be the equivalent of their committing nuclear suicide.”
“That course of action can’t be discounted, Lane,” the secretary of state said dryly.
“Maybe not, Harry,” Ben Childress commented slowly, “But, no matter what, with those city-busters eliminated from the equation, the Reds would be taking a whole lot fewer people with them.”
The group of advisers looked on as the president deliberately removed his glasses and polished each lens in turn. He redonned them after a full minute and looked over at his National Security Adviser. “Sam, get on the line to the Chief of Naval Operations. Have him start tasking for a large-scale antisubmarine operation in the western Pacific If we commit, this will-be live fire. Search and destroy.”
“Yes, sir.”
“At this time, authorization will be under the Presidential War Powers Act over my signature alone. I want this maintained as a black operation at this time. Full security. No public release or acknowledgment. We cannot afford to let the Reds know what we are considering.”
“Or the press, for that matter,” Hanson grunted. “That would amount to the same thing.”
The president glanced at the NSA director. “Ms. Ashley, as of this moment, the United States has no intelligence priority higher than the hunt for this ballistic-missile submarine! I want this boat found!”
“Understood, Mr. President.”
Childress then turned toward the wall flatscreen. “Harry, I’ll need two things from you before we can consider committing to further action, one being the assurance that we have exhausted all valid diplomatic options in this situation. The other is the consensus of the other Pacific Rim powers and a commitment of support from them.”
The secretary of state nodded thoughtfully. “I believe that I can come across with both of those, sir. In fact, I know a way that the first can provide us with the second.”
29
Harrison Van Lynden came to his feet as the Secret Service agent ushered his two guests into the sitting room of his suite.
“Secretary Duan, Professor Djinn, I thank you for coming here this evening.”
“It is our pleasure, Mr. Secretary,” Ho replied. “How may we be of assistance to you?”
“I hope we may be of assistance to each other. Please, be seated.” Van Lynden gestured to the couch that faced him across the low coffee table.
However, it was tea that was brought forward by another silent aide — steaming green tea served in delicate handleless porcelain cups. More than a gesture of hospitality, Van Lynden was invoking an ancient Chinese ritual of negotiation, one that he hoped would stand him in good stead tonight.
The secretary of state and his two guests shared the first sip, which signaled the beginning.
“I would like to speak about the current state of the crisis reduction talks,” Van Lynden began. “And I have called you here tonight in this rather unconventional manner because, sometimes, that is the best way to circumvent an impasse. And we are at an impasse, a very dangerous one.”
“Impasses are sometimes born of commitment, Mr. Secretary,” Professor Djinn replied. “I fear that this is the case.”
“I understand that, Professor. Unfortunately, I fear that this commitment of yours, Professor, could lead to the world’s first nuclear war. That is an option that I know that neither United Democratic Forces, nor the Nationalists, nor the Communists desire. There has got to be some solution here that does not require the death of millions.”
“There is,” Professor Djinn replied levelly. “The solution is for the Communists to admit their defeat.”
“That’s not an easy thing for anyone to admit to. But possibly we might be able to get the Communists to admit that it’s time for change. I would like to put forward the following proposition tomorrow. A freeze-in-place of all UDF and Red Chinese forces, a ceasefire, and the deployment of a U.N. observer group to monitor the truce.”
“Which would resolve nothing, Mr. Secretary.”
“It would put this nuclear confrontation on hold! It would give you the chance to initiate direct negotiations with the Communists. They have got to accept the United Democratic Forces as a factor in China’s future. Maybe we can broker some kind of power-sharing agreement.”
“And what part would the Nationalists have to play in this power sharing?” Secretary Duan inquired.