The Seawolf was racing toward an uncertain destiny. Charging toward a narrow, shallow speck of water where her designers had never envisioned the submarine battling for her life. The Seawolf was a deep-ocean killer, not a shallow-water knife fighter. Fighting in the littorals had been why the Virginia was designed. Yet the Virginia was gone, and her crew entombed in a watery grave.
Kristen was tired and knew exhaustion was contributing to her sense of uneasiness, but at the same time she couldn’t dismiss the reality staring her in the face. After so many years of sacrifice, the future she had dreamed of suddenly looked to be violent and very brief.
She drifted in and out of sleep, listening to the recording of the sound file the computer had given her as a possible match for the two Russian submarines plus the sound profile on the Borei taken by the Albany. Her dreams were a chaotic mixture of ocean sounds, self-recriminations, and brief visions of the life she now only fantasized about.
Chapter Nineteen
The Russian president sat thoughtfully smoking a cigarette as he considered the latest news from the Persian Gulf. The Iranians were reporting they’d sunk an American submarine, although his own forces in the region reported the American had struck a mine.
Regardless, American blood had been shed. As long as the fighting had stayed between Arabs and Persians, the president had been confident he could control the escalation of force as he had in North Korea. But now, he was forced to consider a possible change of plan. He’d hoped to avoid a fight with the American Navy. Although he had forces in the region and he’d formally recognized Iran’s claim to the Musandam Peninsula and the entire Strait of Hormuz, such recognition meant nothing if Russia wasn’t willing to defend those claims.
But could he risk open warfare with the Americans? So far, he’d lost none of his own men or vessels, and no one could prove Russia had anything to do with the loss. With him were his most trusted advisors from the Security Council, and so far the rest of his government didn’t know what had transpired. His Defense Minister, Sergei Sokolov, mused thoughtfully, “You know, Vladimir,” he said, “if you ordered our submarines to defend the Strait of Hormuz, it would be keeping with international law.”
The president knew it wasn’t that simple. Iran had seized sovereign territory by force, and although he could prevent the United Nations from acting, he couldn’t control world opinion which was decidedly against the Republic’s naked aggression.
“And if one of our submarines is lost?” Veronika Puchkov, his foreign minister asked, “Would you then recommend declaring war on the United States?”
Such a thought was out of the question, but she made her point.
Sergei countered, “Of course not, but it is clear the Americans and Brits are probing the Iranian defenses and testing our resolve. If we don’t answer forcefully, we risk them choosing a military option instead of a diplomatic one.”
None of them wanted a real war. Instead, they hoped to make the situation in the Gulf palatable enough to preclude the Americans forcing the issue. But the loss of the American submarine had raised the stakes markedly. The president turned his eyes to Vitaliy Shuvalov, his spy master. “Vitaliy?”
The youth hadn’t offered any comments yet. He was normally tightlipped, but the president valued his counsel. “The Americans have an expression,” he said softly, “the carrot and the stick.”
“What do you mean?”
“We must push the diplomatic solution,” he offered. “This is the carrot. The Americans will hesitate to use force if they think they can resolve the conflict peacefully.”
“They just lost a nuclear-powered attack submarine!” the Defense Minister countered. “What makes you think they won’t demand retribution?”
“We can use this loss to help jump start new negotiations,” Vitaliy explained. “We can say that this tragedy should illustrate the explosive nature of the crisis and call upon all parties to take a step back and reconsider a peaceful settlement. Meanwhile, we use the stick…”
“The stick?” the president asked.
“We tell the world that until there is a peaceful solution to the crisis, our forces will defend Iranian sovereignty in this matter,” the youth concluded.
“While at the same time stressing the diplomatic option,” the president concluded.
Veronika interjected, “World opinion might be swayed in our favor by such an overture since everyone appreciated our intervention to resolve the Korean fiasco, but I don’t think we can count on the Americans sitting still for this.”
The Defense Minister nodded in agreement. “Then we must convince the Americans we’re serious about helping the Persians, or else the blockade across the Strait of Hormuz is meaningless. They’ll run over the handful of Iranian vessels currently patrolling the Strait and the game is over.”
Veronika offered another thought, “And if we don’t announce our determination to defend our ally’s waterways, then the Iranians might wilt before the growing American forces arrayed against them. For all their faith in the hereafter, none of our Persian friends are in a hurry to go there.”
The president knew his next decision would be the most critical. Anything short of ordering his forces to defend the Strait would amount to surrender on his part. However, Sergei had a final thought, “Plus, for the moment, the only Western forces in the region are submarines. If we opened fire on one of their boats, they couldn’t prove we did it.”
The president had already decided what he had to do, but it was nice to hear his most trusted advisors agree with him. “Very well, Veronika,” he began, “make overtures to the Americans and her allies. Tell them we are deeply saddened by this tragedy and explain we want an immediate cease fire by both parties. Tell them we are willing to act as intermediaries between the Iranians and the rest of the world to bring a peaceful end to the crisis. Offer assurances that we will make sure the sea lane in and out of the Gulf stays open to civilian traffic. However, make it clear that to guarantee the cease fire, our forces in the region will fire on any vessel making an offensive move.”
“And our forces in the region?” Sergei asked. “If we leave them there, we must give them the ability to protect themselves. Plus, if the Americans don’t believe we intend to back up our words, then this entire conversation is moot.”
It was a dangerous game, and the president knew it. If he withdrew his forces, then the Iranians — despite their bluster — wouldn’t stand a chance of defending the Strait. If he left his forces in the region but didn’t allow them the freedom to defend themselves, then he was risking them needlessly. If they stayed, which they had to if his plan was going to work, then he had to give them the ability to not only defend themselves, but aggressively defend the Strait itself.
“Give the order,” he decided. “Our forces will defend Iranian territorial waters, including the Strait of Hormuz against any aggressive action.”
The decision made, the president lit another cigarette. He was risking it all, and he knew it. If the Americans didn’t back down, there would be an undeclared war fought underneath the waves, and if his forces in the region lost, then his grand scheme would collapse. But… if successful…if the Americans backed down or were defeated in any attempt to force a passage through the Strait, then the new world order he sought would be achieved. It was a huge gamble, but the reward was equally as large.