1. FIRST PRIORITY IS TO PROTECT RUSSIAN FORCES AND MINIMIZE OWN COMBAT CASUALTIES WHILE INFLICTING MAXIMUM DAMAGE TO UKRAINIAN FORCES. SREDNEKOLYMSK LABORATORIES ESTIMATE MINIMUM 30–37 PERCENT CASUALTY RATE AMONG TARGET FORCES AFTER FIRST WAVE NUCLEAR ATTACK. ASSUMING A CASUALTY RATE OF ONLY 30 PERCENT, 350,000 UKRAINIAN COMBATANTS WOULD BE ELIMINATED WITHIN 48 HOURS. VICTORY WOULD THEN BE ASSURED. COLLATERAL DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN POPULATION IS ESTIMATED LESS THAN 200,000—CERTAINLY AN ACCEPTABLE RATE. PREVAILING WINDS AND THE LOCATION OF THE SKROVEK HILLS, ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY LOW YIELD OF THE TACTICAL WEAPONS WOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL LONG-TERM IMPACT UPON THE SURROUNDING AREA.
2. UKRAINIAN FORCES HAVE NO NUCLEAR CAPABILITY, HAVING CEDED ALL NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS PART OF THE START III AGREEMENTS, SO A RETALIATORY STRIKE IS NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER, CURRENT UKRAINIAN DOCTRINE CALLS FOR THE USE OF WMD, I.E., CHEMICAL-BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS, AS A LAST RESPONSE OPTION IN THE CASE OF IMPENDING MILITARY FAILURE. ALL UKRAINIAN WMD ARE CURRENTLY STORED IN UNDERGROUND FACILITIES THAT ARE ONLY VULNERABLE TO NUCLEAR ATTACK. THUS, A FIRST WAVE NUCLEAR ATTACK IS THE ONLY WAY TO GUARANTEE THE DESTRUCTION OF ALL UKRAINIAN WMD WHICH MIGHT OTHERWISE BE USED AGAINST RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE FORCES.
3. THE PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECT OF THE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS UPON THE UKRAINE WOULD BE TWOFOLD:
A. THE SHOCK VALUE WOULD ASSIST IN SUBJECTING THE CIVILIAN POPULATION TO RUSSIAN CONTROL
B. MORE IMPORTANT, IT WOULD ALSO HAVE A DRAMATIC PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECT UPON WESTERN GOVERNMENTS WHICH WOULD WORK TO OUR ADVANTAGE ONCE HOSTILITIES ARE INITIATED IN THE REGIONS OF THE FORMER WARSAW PACT COUNTRIES. SHOWING OUR RESOLVE EARLY BY USING LIMITED NUCLEAR FORCE AGAINST THE UKRAINE WOULD REDUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR EAST/WEST NUCLEAR EXCHANGE BY AS MUCH AS 70 % ONCE THE WARSAW CAMPAIGN IS UNDERWAY. THE FIRST USE OF WMD WOULD UNDOUBTABLY RESULT IN ENORMOUS POLITICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL REWARDS THAT COULD EFFECTIVELY BE EXPLOITED ON THE BATTLEFIELD.
4. WE BELIEVE THAT THE UNITED STATES/EUROPEAN UNION WILL NOT — REPEAT — NOT — RETALIATE AGAINST RUSSIA FOR THE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS LONG AS SUCH USE IS LIMITED TO ANY ONE OF THE FORMER REPUBLICS.
5. HOSTILITIES AGAINST THE UKRAINE WILL COMMENCE AS PLANNED. RECOMMEND THE USE OF TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO ASSURE A SWIFT AND ACCEPTABLE CONCLUSION.
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SUPREME COMMANDER
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I CONCUR.
VLADIMIR FEDOTOV
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Ammon looked up and swallowed hard, his face a sheet of gray. “How do you know this is real?” he finally asked.
“Oh, it is authentic,” Liski responded dryly. “Do you think we would be here… would we have brought you here… only to stare at forgeries or counterfeit documents? I really think not.
“It is real. We know that. The original document was smuggled to us early last summer by a most reliable source. A source at the highest level within the Russian government. “However, I will have to admit, originally our reaction was identical to yours. We didn’t believe… we couldn’t believe… it was actually real. But now we know. It has been confirmed.”
Yevgeni Oskol Golubev, the Prime Minister of the Ukraine, put his elbows on the table and leaned forward in his chair. He appeared to be the oldest in the group. He was silver-haired and overweight, with dry, brown skin and an enormous, bloodhound face. He turned to Nicolai and muttered something in Russian, then settled again in his chair.
General Lomov, Commander, Ukrainian Forces, reached into a small canvas bag that lay beside his chair and pulled out a series of eight-by-ten black-and-white photos.
“Take a look at these,” he muttered as he placed the pictures down in front of Richard Ammon.
Ammon quickly examined the photos. They were sharply focused, showing what looked to be Russian SS-25 short range nuclear missiles being loaded and fueled on the back of their mobile launchers. He examined the photos more closely, looking for signs of forgery or any other indication the photos might not be real. He studied the launchers along with their protective radar sites. He studied the tending dollies, fuel trucks, and missile loading platforms that accompanied the missile launchers. Everything was there. Everything looked perfectly legit. And the pictures were so clear. He brought one of the photos up to his face to study it in the darkening room. The photos were so good, he could make out the rank of the officers that stood watch over the loading procedures. He could see which men were smoking cigarettes.
He studied the pictures for a full five minutes. As far as he could tell, the photos were real.
“Where did you get these?” he finally asked, tossing them back on the table. He knew the reconnaissance pictures were not taken by a Ukrainian satellite or spy plane. Nothing the Ukrainians had could even come close to this. They were at least two technological generations away from being able to produce this kind of covert pictures.
“The Brits gave them to us. They felt it was something we ought to see.” It was Liski who answered.
Ammon looked again at the pictures. Superimposed in the right hand comer of every picture was the date and time that the photo was taken. He checked the date. A little more than two weeks ago.
“But you and the Russians are allies,” Ammon muttered.
“No! Russia has no friends,” Liski replied. “It has no allies and never has! It only has client states. Do you think that Chechnya considers Russia its friend? Or the Baltics? Or Azerbaijan? Did we volunteer to join the Soviet Union? Do you think we considered Stalin a friend!? Do you know how many million Ukrainians have been killed by Russian solders since the beginning of World War II?
Ammon met Liski’s eyes. Liski did not look away.
“I just find it hard to believe…,” Ammon stammered.
Liski cut him off at the knees. “Then you’re an ignorant fool!” he hissed, waving a bony finger in Ammon’s direction. He had now known Ammon for less than an hour, but in that time he had developed a deep dislike and distrust for the man. “Do you think Fedotov considers nuclear war as completely unthinkable? Even the self-righteous Americans have considered going nuclear at times in the past. Don’t you remember the threats to Hussein during the Gulf War? I’d say Bush made his case pretty clear. Or what about the Cuban missile crisis? Or Hiroshima? Now, if the U.S. has been willing to use them, don’t you think Fedotov would use them as well?
“The man has no moral compass. No internal sense of right or wrong. Already he is an international pariah. By his own choosing. He has isolated himself from the West for this very purpose. He does what suits his own interest. And his interest is perfectly clear.
“He seeks to rebuild the Union. He has been laying this plan for the last several years. And he knows he must move quickly, for only by consolidating his power and rebuilding the union can he create the consensus that will keep him in power. And we, the Ukraine, are going to be his first target.”
Liski paused. Picking up the smuggled Russian document, he tossed it in Ammon’s direction. “Look at this!” he sneered. “Read the man’s own words! Recommend the use of tactical nuclear weapons. I concur. Vladimir Fedotov! It’s right there before you. Then consider what the man has already done. Within twenty-four hours of taking power, he declared martial law, eliminated his primary rivals, disbanded the parliament, and shut down the press. Within two months, he established his own security forces, re-nationalized private industry, expelled half a million foreigners, and initiated a hundred billion rubles worth of nuclear arms sales to Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, and North Korea, all to feed his military machine.